OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Here is a good illustration of what I was saying in the previous post. This happens to the be the 06z NAM valid at 00z this evening. I've highlighted the two areas. The northern target being the northern extent of the richer moisture, and in the vicinity of the warm front where winds will be backed. The southern target being near a suggested dry line bulge where winds should locally back. You can see the theta-e contours bow out, and winds are slightly more southeast than just a little bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Here is a good illustration of what I was saying in the previous post. This happens to the be the 06z NAM valid at 00z this evening. I've highlighted the two areas. The northern target being the northern extent of the richer moisture, and in the vicinity of the warm front where winds will be backed. The southern target being near a suggested dry line bulge where winds should locally back. You can see the theta-e contours bow out, and winds are slightly more southeast than just a little bit north. Considering I'm chasing today and just woke up, I appreciate this post. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 KFDR looks good for later tonight based on what I'm looking at as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Leaving tomorrow evening to probably stay in DSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 New D1 "A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS STRUGGLE TO GENERATE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE...THOUGH TOO MUCH MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE THE REASON THOSE MODEL FORECASTS MAINTAIN COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOIST SECTOR." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Leaving tomorrow evening to probably stay in DSM. Enjoy the stay I'll definitely be keeping watch of this event since it's in my backyard also. Not much chasing but if anything comes within 30 miles that is promising or ongoing, I may make a small trip depending on traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Looks like Saturday southern Wisco and southern MN could get in on the act. Obviously a much more conditional threat and not as great as down south but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Sunday looks like it could be Southern and Central Iowa if the progged moisture is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Nose of the 75kt H5 jet overrunning the low level Theta-E at 7pm could be nasty for Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 00z UKMET has a serious outbreak on Saturday. This might be one of the most interesting Plains outbreaks in long time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The 12z NAM is trying to initiate a 'string of pearls' across OK Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 And finally we see reflectivity showing up on the NAM. I get in trouble when I look at reflectivity on models because I rely on it too much... this looks ridiculous. Sunday looks a lot more messy but it has the potential to be ridiculous too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 ARW and NMM should be interesting to watch. They haven't initiated any convection on their previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 from ICT FRIDAY-SUNDAY: THIS WILL BE A VOLATILE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH A HEIGHTENED CONCERN FOR A BOUT OR TWO OF POTENTIALLY HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA. A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROF REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO PUSH INTO EASTERN KS FRIDAY MORNING WHERE IT IS PROGGED TO STALL...BEFORE RETREATING WESTWARD FRIDAY EVENING TO JUST WEST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. THERE IS MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/EAST OF DRYLINE FRIDAY PM/NIGHT WITH AN APPARENT LACK OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS DIFFLUENT AND THE NAM-WRF PROGS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING 850 JET FROM SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST OK FRIDAY EVENING. THIS MAY BE A POSSIBLE TARGET AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRONG WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS IN THE WARM SECTOR FAVOR SUPERCELL-TYPE STORMS IF ANY STORMS CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS/MID-LEVEL COOLING SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS KS SAT PM/NIGHT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT THE DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL KS TO FAR WESTERN OK SAT PM/EVE...WITH LOWER-MID 60S DEWPOINTS AGAIN CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY. MID-UPPER WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY SAT-SAT NIGHT WITH PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS TO INCREASE TO 55-70 KT ACROSS THE DRYLINE/WARM SECTOR LEADING TO SUPERCELL STORM MODE POTENTIAL. BETTER SIGNALS ARE GIVEN IN THE MODELS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE SATURDAY- SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...OUR CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER IN HIGH-END SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY BUT BOTH DAYS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY. NUMEROUS PARAMETERS AND FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY PM/NIGHT AND SATURDAY PM/NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE LONG- TRACKED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES EVEN WELL AFTER DARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Memphis Weather Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Not been following this one closely yet, but any reason why the folks across the hall (literally) from SPC at OUN don't even have the word "tornado" in either their AFD or HWO for the Saturday period in the midst of a SPC Day 3 MDT with "long-tracked...strong tornadoes" specifically mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Leaving tomorrow evening to probably stay in DSM. I'll be traveling to St. Joseph on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 10% hatched tornado area now for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 New Day 1 added TOR hatching and possible upgrade to moderate this afternoon: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Not been following this one closely yet, but any reason why the folks across the hall (literally) from SPC at OUN don't even have the word "tornado" in either their AFD or HWO for the Saturday period in the midst of a SPC Day 3 MDT with "long-tracked...strong tornadoes" specifically mentioned? Not sure but they do have a multimedia briefing up as of an hour or so ago: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/oun/player.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 New Day 1 added TOR hatching and possible upgrade to moderate this afternoon: http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html I am getting more an more concerned about this today. I was comparing the May 4, 2007 upper charts today and the structure is very similar. There are some obvious differences, especially at the low levels. But if temps and dewpoints get up there - this could lead to some strong tornadoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The best forcing is definitely focusing in the Goodland CWA at this time. Strong theta-e advection and moisture convergence, along with a quickly destabilizing boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Notice the strongest theta-e advection almost perfectly overlaps the strongest moisture convergence. That's the corridor to watch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I am getting more an more concerned about this today. I was comparing the May 4, 2007 upper charts today and the structure is very similar. There are some obvious differences, especially at the low levels. But if temps and dewpoints get up there - this could lead to some strong tornadoes! about as good a place as any to drop some strong tornadoes if you want very low odds of hitting something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The new 1730 Day 2 outlook is a joke. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_any.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The new 1730 Day 2 outlook is a joke. http://www.spc.noaa....lk_1730_any.gif Maybe tomorrow's mesoscale features will become more apparent by tonights new Day 1. I have been seeing this on the NAM over the last few runs (isolated cell over SE Kansas) which has me somewhat concerned. "EARLY ACTIVITY OVER ERN OK INTO SWRN MO MAY LEAVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES THAT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME ACTIVITY. IF THIS OCCURS...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THERE WITH HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Here's the new 12z HRWF for 00z tonight - sim reflectivity with shear over laid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The new 1730 Day 2 outlook is a joke. http://www.spc.noaa....lk_1730_any.gif Can you explain why you believe this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 So what are the odds that we see a big MCS come through OK on Saturday morning and stabilize things? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I'm not chasing (never have, want to some day), but besides chaser convergence, am I the only one sniffing initiation in Oklahoma near dusk/fading light, and thinking Kansas to Iowa would be better place to be Saturday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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