Predict Summer 2012 Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent (millions sq km)

[The_Global_Warmer]

Its still far to early to tell but if the min extent is above 5 mil km2 it will take some major intervention from the weather.

Looks like I am pretty clear to make it through to next season I said if the ice extent was above 5m mil km2 on Jaxa I would stop posting for a year.

[Vergent]

Some of you really need to reconsider your votes. Friv, there should have been more choices on the low end.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Some of you really need to reconsider your votes. Friv, there should have been more choices on the low end.

lol, opps. I didn't go any lower to try and keep the peace here, I figured it would cause some dissent in this thread and maybe get us off topic.

It's a shame that so many regulars here for over 5 years happened to miss the 2-3 month window to cast a vote this year.

[The_Global_Warmer]

NSIDC is currently at 4.55 mil km2, not single day, 9 day running mean. So single day is likely around 4.2 mil km2.

So I def voted to high.

[donsutherland1]

Some of you really need to reconsider your votes. Friv, there should have been more choices on the low end.

I will be wrong. My guess was 4.51 to 4.75 million square kilometers, which would have ranked it as the 2nd or 3rd lowest extent on record. Some correctly saw the potential for another abrupt and sharp step down in declining sea ice extent minima. This will be a learning opportunity for many of us who were wrong and seek to look at the issue objectively.

For starters, it reaffirms the importance of ice thickness, not extent, coming into the melt season. The 2012 maximum was 14.433 million square kilometers, the highest since 2008. Yet, new records in terms of minimum extent and area are likely.

[Vergent]

I will be wrong. My guess was 4.51 to 4.75 million square kilometers, which would have ranked it as the 2nd or 3rd lowest extent on record. Some correctly saw the potential for another abrupt and sharp step down in declining sea ice extent minima. This will be a learning opportunity for many of us who were wrong and seek to look at the issue objectively.

For starters, it reaffirms the importance of ice thickness, not extent, coming into the melt season. The 2012 maximum was 14.433 million square kilometers, the highest since 2008. Yet, new records in terms of minimum extent and area are likely.

Actually, it thickened up quite nicely. I think LEK was right when he said the ice was sick. It is infected with algae. When melt ponds turn into melt holes, they grow algae that floats. when it freezes in the fall, the algae is at the top surface. In the spring the low albedo of the algae starts a new melt pond early. The algae dies in the fresh water, it sinks to the bottom and rots. It turns black and burns a new hole through the ice. This lets the June-July insolation into the water under the ice. Bottom melt is greatly increased. I started a thread about it.

[PhillipS]

Well, since the lowest SIE choice on the poll was "Under 4.25 million sq km" and the SIE is well under 4 M km2 and still dropping, I think we can announce winners. Congrats, you prescient Nine!

I guess next year we'll have to have "Under 3 million sq km" as the low end choice in the poll, and "Over 5 million sq km" as the high end one.

[dabize]

Prescient is a bit strong. I was one of them, and I was thinking 4m km² Hopelessly conservative!

Next year we need to have parallel SIA (CT) and SIV (PIOMAS) polls, since these are more reflective of underlying conditions

An iterative consideration of the amount of volume lost over the high insolation absorption season based on the previous year will be interesting (lets assume that to be June 1 to August 30, since the lower sun angle of August is made up for by the lower ice extent/albedo).

This is kind of similar to what Don is doing when he posts the range of possible minima suggested by previous years going forward. This approach, when applied to this years Godiva thickness maps, yields a rather depressing prospect:

Granted that the ice extent might stage a bit of a catchup due to increased radiation from increased ice free zones this fall (as suggested earlier by ORHwxman and also by the slower rate in maximal ice extent decrease), I think it likely that much of this extra ice (which will be thin FYI) will be gone by June 1.

This idea should be revisited then

From here, it looks likely the loss of volume will accelerate, since there will still be a higher proportion of thin FYI to start with than this year (look at MYI levels now). It also looks as if we may have been "saved by the bell" this year (despite all the records), since so much of the remaining ice now is under 1.5 meters. Therefore next year looks to be another record setter, unless the weather is very unfavorable to ice melt.

[TerryM]

I see two distinct possibilities next year. If the MYI now in the CAA resists melting until late in the season I'd expect the year to end marginally below this year's minimums. If however the CAA melts out early I'd expect next year to show the same kind of drop we saw this year.

Neither scenario is particularly reassuring because if my first guess plays out, the year after next would see substantial losses return.

Terry

[skierinvermont]

Yet another year where the AMWX community guesses averaged laughably above the actual result.

 

That makes at least 5 years in a row!

 

You'd think people would learn..

 

Some might think there's a bias at play...