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April outlook - will the warmth continue?


Isotherm

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These setups will always produce a sea breeze on Long Island around 2-3pm. Every time.

Between 2 and 4 Newark will hit 90 while the Island and NJ shore drop into the 70's.

My office is in Midtown.

I doubt Long Beach makes it past 70. It'll be one of those days where I get on the train at Penn Station in a pool of sweat, and get out in Long Beach and freeze. SSE winds could even be possible for a time based on the NAM for tomorrow. I see it even introducing the idea of a seabreeze for Tuesday behind the front, which wouldn't be a shock. Seabreeze wins 99% of the time for the south shore.

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My office is in Midtown.

I doubt Long Beach makes it past 70. It'll be one of those days where I get on the train at Penn Station in a pool of sweat, and get out in Long Beach and freeze. SSE winds could even be possible for a time based on the NAM for tomorrow. I see it even introducing the idea of a seabreeze for Tuesday behind the front, which wouldn't be a shock. Seabreeze wins 99% of the time for the south shore.

It looks like the models have a bit of a SW wind push to save the day at least along western Long Island. But you can really see the low clouds around 18-20z along the south shore of Southeast Long Island...they just can't survive with any southerly component to the wind direction.

Midtown is going to bake tomorrow and so is all of New Jersey.....TEB or EWR will probably get 90.

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72 at this hour in the park. Pretty solid for April 16.

I've seen cooler midnight temps in July.

Tonight and tomorrow night's low temperatures are average for mid/late June, and tomorrow's high temps will be a few degrees warmer than our peak avg high temp in late July (85-86). Probably a +25 departure.

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I've seen cooler midnight temps in July.

Tonight and tomorrow night's low temperatures are average for mid/late June, and tomorrow's high temps will be a few degrees warmer than our peak avg high temp in late July (85-86). Probably a +25 departure.

Yea, I just took a walk to the store about an hour ago, feels like late June. It's very comfortable because dews are still in the mid/upper 50s.

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Hot day today away from the coast, however records are high today across the board:

 ...............RECORD HIGH..........FORECAST HIGH
CENTRAL PARK......92/2002...................87
KENNEDY...........86/2003 AND 2002..........80
LAGUARDIA.........89/2002...................88
NEWARK............92/2002...................90
ISLIP.............88/2002...................80
BRIDGEPORT........85/2002...................82

The forecasted highs for the stations near the water look too high with a south wind already at JFK.

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Overnight models continue the idea of a very wet weekend with a pretty substantial coastal.

Pretty good agreement for day 5-6.

I think that the storm track will be really important as to how much rain that we pick up.

The models are still having trouble figuring out the evolution of the trough since it's early.

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Overnight models continue the idea of a very wet weekend with a pretty substantial coastal.

Pretty good agreement for day 5-6.

The latest gfs only gives us a half inch of rain, not very wet if you ask me. There's agreement on some storm and rain but how much is highly uncertain and storm track is critical.

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The latest gfs only gives us a half inch of rain, not very wet if you ask me. There's agreement on some storm and rain but how much is highly uncertain and storm track is critical.

The DGEX in typical form annihilates us with days of heavy rain. There's definitely potential for someone to get soaked because of the deep trough, cutting off and connection to the tropics. Should be a nice LLJ associated with it.

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Hot day today away from the coast, however records are high today across the board:

 ...............RECORD HIGH..........FORECAST HIGH
CENTRAL PARK......92/2002...................87
KENNEDY...........86/2003 AND 2002..........80
LAGUARDIA.........89/2002...................88
NEWARK............92/2002...................90
ISLIP.............88/2002...................80
BRIDGEPORT........85/2002...................82

The forecasted highs for the stations near the water look too high with a south wind already at JFK.

I think immediate coast areas stay under 70. JFK could hit the low-mid 70s if everything breaks right, but I think they go back down with a stiffening onshore wind. Likely a huge difference once you cross the Grand Central or the Southern State.

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I think immediate coast areas stay under 70. JFK could hit the low-mid 70s if everything breaks right, but I think they go back down with a stiffening onshore wind. Likely a huge difference once you cross the Grand Central or the Southern State.

This looks like one of those days when the sea breeze along the South Shore could really over perform.

We could see winds gusting 25-30 mph later as the land to our west really heats up. Tuesday looks like

a warmer day into the 70's for Long Beach with a good offshore downsloping flow.

http://ams.confex.co...aper_144401.htm

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Overnight models continue the idea of a very wet weekend with a pretty substantial coastal.

Pretty good agreement for day 5-6.

I'd be shocked if there was a good coastal...we have not had a real coastal since 10/29....with that said, I can see us getting some rain, it's got to end at some point.

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This looks like one of those days when the sea breeze along the South Shore could really over perform.

We could see winds gusting 25-30 mph later as the land to our west really heats up. Tuesday looks like

a warmer day into the 70's for Long Beach with a good offshore downsloping flow.

http://ams.confex.co...aper_144401.htm

I can definitely see that happening too with the strengthening temperature gradient. Tomorrow could overperform on the warm side if we can keep the winds westerly. 75+ could be a possibility.

Here at the office in the city however, it already feels and looks like today's going to be a scorcher. B)

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This looks like one of those days when the sea breeze along the South Shore could really over perform.

We could see winds gusting 25-30 mph later as the land to our west really heats up. Tuesday looks like

a warmer day into the 70's for Long Beach with a good offshore downsloping flow.

http://ams.confex.co...aper_144401.htm

It could be around 90 inland, and 60 on the beaches, later this afternoon.

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The DGEX in typical form annihilates us with days of heavy rain. There's definitely potential for someone to get soaked because of the deep trough, cutting off and connection to the tropics. Should be a nice LLJ associated with it.

The DGEX is like the "JB" of forecast models.

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The DGEX in typical form annihilates us with days of heavy rain. There's definitely potential for someone to get soaked because of the deep trough, cutting off and connection to the tropics. Should be a nice LLJ associated with it.

The Euro ensembles are very wet, especially for a mean spread ensemble product. Drops nearly 2" of rain.

The operational also drops over 2" of rain.

Seeing the ensembles and the operational matching so well, is an encouraging signal for a soaker coming up.

The other global models, UKIE, GGEM, Nogaps, JMA and the GFS also have a pretty significant low pressure over the east coast.

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It could be around 90 inland, and 60 on the beaches, later this afternoon.

That's our typical April weather in Long Beach. Tomorrow looks really warm for the South Shore beaches.

The Gilgo wunderground station does a great job at showing the progress of the sea breeze.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KNYGILGO1

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Let's hope. We need something, even a half inch. I'm not thrilled with the prospects of a weekend washout but I guess we'll have to deal with it if it means getting some rain.

Then so is the euro ensemble and the operational as both drop 2"-3" of rain.

Almost every member of the gfs ensemble product also has a major east coast storm.

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Let's hope. We need something, even a half inch. I'm not thrilled with the prospects of a weekend washout but I guess we'll have to deal with it if it means getting some rain.

Its still iffy with regards to timing. Some ensemble members have the storm progress quick and dump rain on us both Saturday and Sunday while others delay the storm a little and save Saturday and most of Sunday with the rain coming Sunday night and Monday.

All that will be sorted out as we get closer. Right now let just hope the storm continues to show up on the models as we head into the weekend.

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I think immediate coast areas stay under 70. JFK could hit the low-mid 70s if everything breaks right, but I think they go back down with a stiffening onshore wind. Likely a huge difference once you cross the Grand Central or the Southern State.

Hopefully the south winds somehow make it up to the Throgs Neck today, at least a little bit to break the highest heat.

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Its still iffy with regards to timing. Some ensemble members have the storm progress quick and dump rain on us both Saturday and Sunday while others delay the storm a little and save Saturday and most of Sunday with the rain coming Sunday night and Monday.

All that will be sorted out as we get closer. Right now let just hope the storm continues to show up on the models as we head into the weekend.

Unsettling that it keeps getting pushed back....torch and dry will win out in afraid...this week we where suppose to get alot of rain

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Unsettling that it keeps getting pushed back....torch and dry will win out in afraid...this week we where suppose to get alot of rain

The rain that models had for 1 day for this Thursday is pretty much the same setup we are now following for this weekend. Just 2-3 days delayed.

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Yeah but most of the models abandoned the rain chances for this week a while back. If they are still showing something for the weekend around midweek I'll be more confident that it will happen

Unsettling that it keeps getting pushed back....torch and dry will win out in afraid...this week we where suppose to get alot of rain

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