earthlight Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Careful with Sunday now -- the models have clouds hanging around until 15z with small vorts moving over the area through that time as well. Could be a bit of a bust-potential day as far as high temps. NAM with clouds until 18z Sunday on the new run this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM with clouds until 18z Sunday on the new run this afternoon if it means convective rainfall, i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 18z NAM showing 88 F contour over NE NJ on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 14, 2012 Author Share Posted April 14, 2012 18z NAM showing 88 F contour over NE NJ on Monday Yeah, MOS numbers are finally getting close to what we've been saying in this thread for the past week. Upper 80s look reasonable for Monday given +15/16c 850's, good amount of sunshine, SWLY flow, and the dry ground could tack on a couple degrees, putting many places at 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The 18z GFS MOS has 90 for Teteboro, on Monday: KTEB GFS MOS GUIDANCE 4/14/2012 1800 UTC DT /APR 15 /APR 16 /APR 17 HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18 N/X 53 79 59 90 60 TMP 66 60 57 55 58 67 75 76 71 66 63 61 63 75 85 85 77 69 66 62 75 DPT 33 38 42 46 50 52 54 53 54 56 57 56 57 57 54 53 55 57 57 52 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 6z NAM has 90+ over NE NJ and NW NYC tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 90 WTF!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Jesus, Keeps going up, I will need my A/C going by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 6z NAM has 90+ over NE NJ and NW NYC tomorrow: 12z NAM has it also... considering that it often underestimates temperatures in warm spells, I wonder if this spells widespread 90+ degrees for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 It's awesome outside. Really feels like summer. I was outside yesterday coaching Soccer, and I got color with an April sun. Temperature is 76 degrees IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 NAM with clouds until 18z Sunday on the new run this afternoon that busted hard. At least here, we have partly to mostly sunny all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 that busted hard. At least here, we have partly to mostly sunny all day That generally verified here in Central New Jersey, though the sun came out slightly earlier than that, and was peaking even earlier than that. I would say the sun really came out between 16-17z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 That generally verified here in Central New Jersey, though the sun came out slightly earlier than that, and was peaking even earlier than that. I would say the sun really came out between 16-17z. just depended on where you are....the early sun helped us get to 77 where we currently stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 That generally verified here in Central New Jersey, though the sun came out slightly earlier than that, and was peaking even earlier than that. I would say the sun really came out between 16-17z. Still mainly cloudy in NE NJ as of 3 PM (19z), although there may have been some more sunshine before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 15, 2012 Author Share Posted April 15, 2012 81F right now in Villanova PA. 850mb temps around +12c today. Tomorrow should feature widespread upper 80s across the PHL-BOS corridor with plenty of locations topping 90 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Still mainly cloudy in NE NJ as of 3 PM (19z), although there may have been some more sunshine before. I have high clouds IMBY, but that doesn't seem to be halting my temperatures from warming up. High clouds don't really reflect that much sunlight, so they aren't too detremental for us heat lovers. Temp has risen to 81.5 degrees IMBY. At 4 pm KTTN had also hit 80 degrees. Thus indicating that the warmth was slightly more widespread than forecast by the NAM. Slightly overperforming warmth seems to be the meme these days. (Last night's 00z NAM's high temperatures for today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 90 in park tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 I have high clouds IMBY, but that doesn't seem to be halting my temperatures from warming up. High clouds don't really reflect that much sunlight, so they aren't too detremental for us heat lovers. Temp has risen to 81.5 degrees IMBY. At 4 pm KTTN had also hit 80 degrees. Thus indicating that the warmth was slightly more widespread than forecast by the NAM. Slightly overperforming warmth seems to be the meme these days. Here the NAM seems to have been a bit on the low side as it's still mainly cloudy with about 75/76 degrees. That won't matter much for tomorrow though with mainly sunny skies expected and much warmer 850mb temps, Teterboro and Newark should easily reach and/or pass 90 degrees IMO along with other parts of NJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 90 in park tomorrow? It's a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 It's a good possibility. Even the NAM, typically a little low in warm spells, has 90 near NYC/NE NJ tomorrow. I'd go with around 89-90 for Central Park and something around 91-93 degrees for NE NJ/Newark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Upton only has 3 zones that hit 90 tomorrow - Eastern Essex, Eastern Union and Hudson http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Any chance the winds turn more southerly in the afternoon near the city? I remember a few NAM runs ago that just east of Jersey the wind direction was more southerly for tomorrow. Haven't looked at it since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Still in the upper 70s in the city. Just went for a run, unreal out. The humidity has definitely arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Still in the upper 70s in the city. Just went for a run, unreal out. The humidity has definitely arrived. There's currently a heat index at 10PM on April 15th. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Great day today for warm weather fans. I know I enjoyed it. For those who prefer it cooler, perhaps the mid and loner range offers another chance at normal or below normal temps next week. GFS and ECM show trough digging into the east coast next week. It's likely to be brief as recent trends show from march and march, and the ridge may build back east as soon as the end of the month or beginning of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Models all agree for a pretty wet period at the end of this week and into the weekend. Ensembles and models are all pointing to a pretty strong vort and a fairly deep trough allowing amplification. Let's hope this idea continues to hold. The ensembles are also pointing to another -nao forming right around this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 careful, we have seen this precip chances in the long run dry up considerably as we get closer...look at last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Awesome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Awesome.. My office has no A/C, or ventilation for that matter. Aaarrgghhh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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