bluewave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 All NYC needs is to go +2.3 or greater on the month to beat MAR/APR 2010 for combined warmth. I have to admit that after spring of 2010 that I didn't expect MAR/APR warmth to be challenged so soon. 2010 went on to take the title for warmest spring after May went +2.7. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/warmcoldseasons.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 All NYC needs is to go +2.3 or greater on the month to beat MAR/APR 2010 for combined warmth. I have to admit that after spring of 2010 that I didn't expect MAR/APR warmth to be challenged so soon. Same. During March 2010, I was thinking that we wouldn't see something like this for decades to come, but here we are 2 years later. Let's hope this 2 year torch will reverse in a big way before 2012 is done.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 i like our rain chances after the torch... we get good southerly flow up the EC, thanks to the ridge elongating N/S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 All NYC needs is to go +2.3 or greater on the month to beat MAR/APR 2010 for combined warmth. I have to admit that after spring of 2010 that I didn't expect MAR/APR warmth to be challenged so soon. 2010 went on to take the title for warmest spring after May went +2.7. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/warmcoldseasons.html Heat records seem to get broken every few years. I'm still waiting for my record cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 Heat records seem to get broken every few years. I'm still waiting for my record cold. Right now we're still in a period more favorable for record heat than record cold, and it'll be that way until we return to the -PDO/-AMO era of the 60s/70s, which likely is still 10 years or so down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Right now we're still in a period more favorable for record heat than record cold, and it'll be that way until we return to the -PDO/-AMO era of the 60s/70s, which likely is still 10 years or so down the road. Is the Arctic as cold as it was in the 60s and 70s though? What's the point of having a mechanism to bring down air from the north if that air isn't as cold as it used to be? It's like what someone said here somewhere earlier. Despite the insane blocking the last two years, it really wasn't that cold. Just a bit below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 i like our rain chances after the torch... we get good southerly flow up the EC, thanks to the ridge elongating N/S That's still too far out for us to be certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 All NYC needs is to go +2.3 or greater on the month to beat MAR/APR 2010 for combined warmth. I have to admit that after spring of 2010 that I didn't expect MAR/APR warmth to be challenged so soon. 2010 went on to take the title for warmest spring after May went +2.7. http://www.erh.noaa....oldseasons.html So will this Mar/Apr period be hard to beat in the years ahead is the question or will 2014 do what 2012 did to 2010. It's hard to imagine how much higher the temps can climb after what we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 That's still too far out for us to be certain. today's guidance pushed the warmth well north. we want the ridge ahead of the system to be amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Monday, is likely to get head start from Sunday highs too. I see 90 more reachable that day. Tuesday, could be just as warm, if the cold front slows down more. Yeah, that's a good point as well. The 18z NAM has 70 F temps at NYC at 03z Tuesday and 16c 850 temps moving towards the area. Under those conditions I would be very surprised if Newark didn't get towards 90 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 18z GFS continues to advertise 3 consecutive 80F+ days for the region; 850mb temps on Monday are very impressive for this time of year. 85 looks like a virtual lock at this point with 90 within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 And while it heats up here for a few days, the northern plains will have a major snowstorm while central plains gets severe weather. That's the results when you get heat and cold clashing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 13, 2012 Author Share Posted April 13, 2012 Warmer than FL on Monday. Hot spot should be somewhere in the E MD/DE/NJ region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 18z GFS continues to advertise 3 consecutive 80F+ days for the region; 850mb temps on Monday are very impressive for this time of year. 85 looks like a virtual lock at this point with 90 within reach. Yeah, temps at the warmest places should push to around 90 with the Euro actually showing 16-18C 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Wow. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Very rare Day 2 High Risk from SPC over the Central Plains -- wow. Rarified territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 someone should definitely hit 90 on Monday, I would think. Generally that 90 threshold is met when we get 850's at about 17C or greater.. of course it depends on a lot of factors such as mixing depth, amount of sun, and wind direction, but it looks like things are in our favor to achieve maximum mixing values on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Very rare Day 2 High Risk from SPC over the Central Plains -- wow. Rarified territory. yea, that is impressive.. if you get a high risk on day 2, you can pretty much put it in the books. This is an impressive set of upper level winds moving over that area.. 120-130 knot jet streak.. and the shear parameters that SPC is mentioning are just sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 12z NAM still going with around 86 degrees on Monday. During the last few warm spells, it underestimated the warmth in the most favorable areas for warmth (which in mid March was New England, in this case NYC is included). Taking that into consideration I can easily see Newark getting to 90 degrees, which if it does get to 90 degrees I would assume it'd be one of the earliest 90 degree days in recorded history behind 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 12z NAM still going with around 86 degrees on Monday. During the last few warm spells, it underestimated the warmth in the most favorable areas for warmth (which in mid March was New England, in this case NYC is included). Taking that into consideration I can easily see Newark getting to 90 degrees, which if it does get to 90 degrees I would assume it'd be one of the earliest 90 degree days in recorded history behind 2010. Due south wind over Long Island. Likely mid 60s to mid 70s there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Careful with Sunday now -- the models have clouds hanging around until 15z with small vorts moving over the area through that time as well. Could be a bit of a bust-potential day as far as high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 SREF poppin' some 90s across central New England by 18z MON. Surface/UL maps looks VERY similar to 4.7.2010 when many areas had low to mid-90s, including 93F at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 SREF poppin' some 90s across central New England by 18z MON. Surface/UL maps looks VERY similar to 4.7.2010 when many areas had low to mid-90s, including 93F at BDL. There's definitely a lot of similarities between Monday and 4/7/10. The main difference in the region is that 850mb temps were slightly warmer and the ridge was a bit less amplified in that case, although these minor differences would still support upper 80s and some low 90s for Monday. April 7, 2010: Today's 12z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Honk Honk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Trials was a few weeks quick on the trigger, but if we see 3 days with 80-90F highs, trees will be leafing out. Current point and click has KNYC in the mid 70s Sunday, peaking in the upper 70s Monday. I think that will be blown away by at least 5-7 degrees. Could see the first 90 of the season for many spots early next week given +16c 850's, dry ground, low vegetation, and sunshine. yeah the leaf out slowed big time, we went from about three weeks ahead to perhaps only a week ahead now. I think a couple days of 80s and mid to upper 60s to follow will cause a quick leaf out by the end of next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 It shouldn't be an either/or. I'd rather have 60s, not 20s or 80s. In other words what we should have, even a little bit above normal. 80s in the first half of April is ridiculous. how old are you? Its quite common actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 It shouldn't be an either/or. I'd rather have 60s, not 20s or 80s. In other words what we should have, even a little bit above normal. 80s in the first half of April is ridiculous. how old are you? Its quite common actually. Temperatures in the 80's in the first half of April in the NYC area are rare. Either get a clue, familiarize yourself with some of the area's climate data, or stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Temperatures in the 80's in the first half of April in the NYC area are rare. Either get a clue, familiarize yourself with some of the area's climate data, or stop posting. You are correct that 80° days during the first half of April are infrequent in the NYC area. Statistically, an 80° day in the first half of April is 2.274 standard deviations above the mean for that timeframe (1981-2010 base) with a statistical probability of occurring on 1.15% days. However, they have occured at more than twice the statistical probability since 1981. There were 12 such days during that timeframe, half of which occurred from 2000-2011 (4/15/2002, 4/15/2003, 4/15/2006, 4/7/2010, 4/8/2010, and 4/11/2011). Perhaps better wording would have been that years in which the temperature reaches 80° at least once in the first half of April have become more common? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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