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April outlook - will the warmth continue?


Isotherm

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With the Arctic remaining unseasonably warm for the most part, there's not much cold to tap. Downstream, cold shots are modest and short-lived. Consequently, what should typically have produced a colder outcome than what occurred, has seen the cold underperform. April remains solidly on course to go into the books as yet another warm month in the NYC area.

Is the lack of cold expected for years to come or will it ever change?

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With the Arctic remaining unseasonably warm for the most part, there's not much cold to tap. Downstream, cold shots are modest and short-lived. Consequently, what should typically have produced a colder outcome than what occurred, has seen the cold underperform. April remains solidly on course to go into the books as yet another warm month in the NYC area.

I agree. The last few years have even warmed more here compared to the already warmer 2000's.

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It's April 12th. Its the equivalent of me asking for temps in the 20s on October 12th.

Cmon sundog, would you rather have 20's and sun or 80's with sun? Should be a no brainer although i dont like excessive heat you gotta admit it'll br nice taking a walk on a nice warm day over freezin you but off in frigid weather and no snow
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Is the lack of cold expected for years to come or will it ever change?

Currently, there's a strong warming trend that's underway in the Arctic as a whole. That warming trend was not blunted by the recent extreme solar minimum. That trend has had an influence on the overall magnitude and expanse of cold in the Arctic on a seasonal, annual, and longer-term basis (less areal coverage and less intense), with some downstream impact. However, the aspect of warmth I'm talking about regarding April 2012 is much shorter-term in nature and concerns where cold anomalies have recently been located (generally not in the Arctic region, except for a few small pockets).

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Is the lack of cold expected for years to come or will it ever change?

Keep in mind that you are only one year removed from one of the snowiest winters in history for our region. We had constant snow cover from Boxing Day to Mid-March here in NE NJ. The NAO was positive for nearly the entire winter, next year a different synoptic setup will yield a different result.

Even though its no secret that the planet is warming as a whole, the long term affects are yet to come.

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Guest Pamela

Is the lack of cold expected for years to come or will it ever change?

No doubt, we are on a bizarre 25 month streak of close to unprecedented warmth...March 2010 - March 2012...there is an old saying...he who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass...but I would venture that there will be a return to normalcy...to borrow the timeless Harding malaprop...

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The Arctic region is playing havoc with the entire Northern Hemisphere's weather.. The temp anomalies up there are insane... This weather is great (as far as having fun outside) for us, but as TheTrials has repeatedly said - if it doesn't rain some soon, this region is in for a serious drought come summer..

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The Arctic region is playing havoc with the entire Northern Hemisphere's weather.. The temp anomalies up there are insane... This weather is great (as far as having fun outside) for us, but as TheTrials has repeatedly said - if it doesn't rain some soon, this region is in for a serious drought come summer..

D2 conditions now.

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Guest Pamela

The Arctic region is playing havoc with the entire Northern Hemisphere's weather.. The temp anomalies up there are insane... This weather is great (as far as having fun outside) for us, but as TheTrials has repeatedly said - if it doesn't rain some soon, this region is in for a serious drought come summer..

KNYC has recorded above normal precipitation for nine straight years and is coming off their second wettest year on record...once again, a dry stretch such as the current one is Nature's way of balancing things out.

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KNYC has recorded above normal precipitation for nine straight years and is coming off their second wettest year on record...once again, a dry stretch such as the current one is Nature's way of balancing things out.

No end to the dry stretch in site -even though all the plants , trees , grass etc etc bloomed much earlier then normal they are beginning to slow down from lack of water...........

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Guest Pamela

No end to the dry stretch in site -even though all the plants , trees , grass etc etc bloomed much earlier then normal they are beginning to slow down from lack of water...........

The last serious drought I recall...particularly serious out on Long Island...was during the summer of 2005....it ended with a bang, not a whimper, as October 2005 saw more than 20 inches of rain in many spots out here. More rain fell in October than in the previous 9 months combined out at NWS Upton.

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I know that it's been a rather wet decade... And i know that mother nature at some point just decided to turn off the specket... The bottom line is that as the map above (drought map) indicates- we are already experiencing drought conditions and if things continue - the summer is going to be pretty brown..

Remember our average rainfall was once in the low 40's per year- not 55 inches plus.. We'll see what happens as time goes on.. Temps though seem to be through the roof with no sign of backing off..

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The problem is there's no way to store all that extra rain. At a certain point the reservoirs max out and anything extra does no good. So just a few months of below normal rainfall can cause an onset of drought conditions pretty rapidly. Just be thankful we aren't Texas or the SE that have had multi year droughts sometimes lasting a decade.

I know that it's been a rather wet decade... And i know that mother nature at some point just decided to turn off the specket... The bottom line is that as the map above (drought map) indicates- we are already experiencing drought conditions and if things continue - the summer is going to be pretty brown..

Remember our average rainfall was once in the low 40's per year- not 55 inches plus.. We'll see what happens as time goes on.. Temps though seem to be through the roof with no sign of backing off..

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The problem is there's no way to store all that extra rain. At a certain point the reservoirs max out and anything extra does no good. So just a few months of below normal rainfall can cause an onset of drought conditions pretty rapidly. Just be thankful we aren't Texas or the SE that have had multi year droughts sometimes lasting a decade.

Yea exactly where they truly get the dust bowl droughts that put out our dry spells pretty much to shame. Ill agree tho we do need some rain to aleviate some of the drought concerns that will only get worse if the dry weather continues. Droughts really are no fun especially with water restrictions that usually accompany the more severe ones

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It's going to be disgusting on Sunday. Humid and clouds with mid 80s?

Sorry about the past comment with referencing extreme temps. What i was trying to say was with full sun the warmth, albeit not oppresive does feel a hell of alot better than below freezing temps. But your right 60-70 degrees with a light breeze is very comfortable and refreshing.
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Yea exactly where they truly get the dust bowl droughts that put out our dry spells pretty much to shame. Ill agree tho we do need some rain to aleviate some of the drought concerns that will only get worse if the dry weather continues. Droughts really are no fun especially with water restrictions that usually accompany the more severe ones

Outside of the 60's and some earlier times, we have been lucky on the duration of drought conditions here.

http://www.nrcc.corn...ht_periods.html

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Trials was a few weeks quick on the trigger, but if we see 3 days with 80-90F highs, trees will be leafing out. Current point and click has KNYC in the mid 70s Sunday, peaking in the upper 70s Monday. I think that will be blown away by at least 5-7 degrees. Could see the first 90 of the season for many spots early next week given +16c 850's, dry ground, low vegetation, and sunshine.

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That spring ended up pretty close to normal though overall despite mid and upper 90s for a couple days in April. Also had a great thunderstorm that ended that heat wave, despite there being only an isolated threat

It's interesting that we also saw a big mid-April warm up after the record warm winter of 2002.

This will be cooler by comparison but we also had the drought conditions that spring.

http://www.news.corn...atWave.bpf.html

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That spring ended up pretty close to normal though overall despite mid and upper 90s for a couple days in April. Also had a great thunderstorm that ended that heat wave, despite there being only an isolated threat

Yeah, there was no comparison to the head start in warmth that we got this March.

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