SnoSki14 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 With the Arctic remaining unseasonably warm for the most part, there's not much cold to tap. Downstream, cold shots are modest and short-lived. Consequently, what should typically have produced a colder outcome than what occurred, has seen the cold underperform. April remains solidly on course to go into the books as yet another warm month in the NYC area. Is the lack of cold expected for years to come or will it ever change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 With the Arctic remaining unseasonably warm for the most part, there's not much cold to tap. Downstream, cold shots are modest and short-lived. Consequently, what should typically have produced a colder outcome than what occurred, has seen the cold underperform. April remains solidly on course to go into the books as yet another warm month in the NYC area. I agree. The last few years have even warmed more here compared to the already warmer 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It's April 12th. Its the equivalent of me asking for temps in the 20s on October 12th. Cmon sundog, would you rather have 20's and sun or 80's with sun? Should be a no brainer although i dont like excessive heat you gotta admit it'll br nice taking a walk on a nice warm day over freezin you but off in frigid weather and no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Is the lack of cold expected for years to come or will it ever change? Currently, there's a strong warming trend that's underway in the Arctic as a whole. That warming trend was not blunted by the recent extreme solar minimum. That trend has had an influence on the overall magnitude and expanse of cold in the Arctic on a seasonal, annual, and longer-term basis (less areal coverage and less intense), with some downstream impact. However, the aspect of warmth I'm talking about regarding April 2012 is much shorter-term in nature and concerns where cold anomalies have recently been located (generally not in the Arctic region, except for a few small pockets). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Is the lack of cold expected for years to come or will it ever change? Keep in mind that you are only one year removed from one of the snowiest winters in history for our region. We had constant snow cover from Boxing Day to Mid-March here in NE NJ. The NAO was positive for nearly the entire winter, next year a different synoptic setup will yield a different result. Even though its no secret that the planet is warming as a whole, the long term affects are yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Is the lack of cold expected for years to come or will it ever change? No doubt, we are on a bizarre 25 month streak of close to unprecedented warmth...March 2010 - March 2012...there is an old saying...he who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass...but I would venture that there will be a return to normalcy...to borrow the timeless Harding malaprop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The Arctic region is playing havoc with the entire Northern Hemisphere's weather.. The temp anomalies up there are insane... This weather is great (as far as having fun outside) for us, but as TheTrials has repeatedly said - if it doesn't rain some soon, this region is in for a serious drought come summer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The Arctic region is playing havoc with the entire Northern Hemisphere's weather.. The temp anomalies up there are insane... This weather is great (as far as having fun outside) for us, but as TheTrials has repeatedly said - if it doesn't rain some soon, this region is in for a serious drought come summer.. D2 conditions now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It shouldn't be an either/or. I'd rather have 60s, not 20s or 80s. In other words what we should have, even a little bit above normal. 80s in the first half of April is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The Arctic region is playing havoc with the entire Northern Hemisphere's weather.. The temp anomalies up there are insane... This weather is great (as far as having fun outside) for us, but as TheTrials has repeatedly said - if it doesn't rain some soon, this region is in for a serious drought come summer.. KNYC has recorded above normal precipitation for nine straight years and is coming off their second wettest year on record...once again, a dry stretch such as the current one is Nature's way of balancing things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Nothing wrong with a dry stretch, its been historically wet past 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Nothing wrong with a dry stretch, its been historically wet past 10 years. We're officially in a drought now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 KNYC has recorded above normal precipitation for nine straight years and is coming off their second wettest year on record...once again, a dry stretch such as the current one is Nature's way of balancing things out. No end to the dry stretch in site -even though all the plants , trees , grass etc etc bloomed much earlier then normal they are beginning to slow down from lack of water........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The surface temperatures should over perform if we get +16C 850's under drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 No end to the dry stretch in site -even though all the plants , trees , grass etc etc bloomed much earlier then normal they are beginning to slow down from lack of water........... The last serious drought I recall...particularly serious out on Long Island...was during the summer of 2005....it ended with a bang, not a whimper, as October 2005 saw more than 20 inches of rain in many spots out here. More rain fell in October than in the previous 9 months combined out at NWS Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 I know that it's been a rather wet decade... And i know that mother nature at some point just decided to turn off the specket... The bottom line is that as the map above (drought map) indicates- we are already experiencing drought conditions and if things continue - the summer is going to be pretty brown.. Remember our average rainfall was once in the low 40's per year- not 55 inches plus.. We'll see what happens as time goes on.. Temps though seem to be through the roof with no sign of backing off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Sunday..Mid 80's on NAM. Saturday is mid 70's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The problem is there's no way to store all that extra rain. At a certain point the reservoirs max out and anything extra does no good. So just a few months of below normal rainfall can cause an onset of drought conditions pretty rapidly. Just be thankful we aren't Texas or the SE that have had multi year droughts sometimes lasting a decade. I know that it's been a rather wet decade... And i know that mother nature at some point just decided to turn off the specket... The bottom line is that as the map above (drought map) indicates- we are already experiencing drought conditions and if things continue - the summer is going to be pretty brown.. Remember our average rainfall was once in the low 40's per year- not 55 inches plus.. We'll see what happens as time goes on.. Temps though seem to be through the roof with no sign of backing off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It's going to be disgusting on Sunday. Humid and clouds with mid 80s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 The problem is there's no way to store all that extra rain. At a certain point the reservoirs max out and anything extra does no good. So just a few months of below normal rainfall can cause an onset of drought conditions pretty rapidly. Just be thankful we aren't Texas or the SE that have had multi year droughts sometimes lasting a decade. Yea exactly where they truly get the dust bowl droughts that put out our dry spells pretty much to shame. Ill agree tho we do need some rain to aleviate some of the drought concerns that will only get worse if the dry weather continues. Droughts really are no fun especially with water restrictions that usually accompany the more severe ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It's going to be disgusting on Sunday. Humid and clouds with mid 80s? Sorry about the past comment with referencing extreme temps. What i was trying to say was with full sun the warmth, albeit not oppresive does feel a hell of alot better than below freezing temps. But your right 60-70 degrees with a light breeze is very comfortable and refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It's going to be disgusting on Sunday. Humid and clouds with mid 80s? Clouds very early in the morning and then full sunshine by early afternoon. Dews in the mid 50's, so not terrible: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_knyc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Yea exactly where they truly get the dust bowl droughts that put out our dry spells pretty much to shame. Ill agree tho we do need some rain to aleviate some of the drought concerns that will only get worse if the dry weather continues. Droughts really are no fun especially with water restrictions that usually accompany the more severe ones Outside of the 60's and some earlier times, we have been lucky on the duration of drought conditions here. http://www.nrcc.corn...ht_periods.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Dgex; Mid to uppers 80's on Monday: And 80's on Tuesday also: And also low 70's on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 Trials was a few weeks quick on the trigger, but if we see 3 days with 80-90F highs, trees will be leafing out. Current point and click has KNYC in the mid 70s Sunday, peaking in the upper 70s Monday. I think that will be blown away by at least 5-7 degrees. Could see the first 90 of the season for many spots early next week given +16c 850's, dry ground, low vegetation, and sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It's interesting that we also saw a big mid-April warm up after the record warm winter of 2002. This will be cooler by comparison but we also had the drought conditions that spring. http://www.news.corn...atWave.bpf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 That spring ended up pretty close to normal though overall despite mid and upper 90s for a couple days in April. Also had a great thunderstorm that ended that heat wave, despite there being only an isolated threat It's interesting that we also saw a big mid-April warm up after the record warm winter of 2002. This will be cooler by comparison but we also had the drought conditions that spring. http://www.news.corn...atWave.bpf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 That spring ended up pretty close to normal though overall despite mid and upper 90s for a couple days in April. Also had a great thunderstorm that ended that heat wave, despite there being only an isolated threat Yeah, there was no comparison to the head start in warmth that we got this March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It's going to be disgusting on Sunday. Humid and clouds with mid 80s? Seriously man? Do u even work outside? Stop crying...going to be incredible on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Seriously man? Do u even work outside? Stop crying...going to be incredible on Sunday The 80's with a bit of humidity isn't that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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