pazzo83 Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 No complaints about the weather here. I'll take 60s and sunny in April anytime. The wind and dryness have been kind of annoying (it's been too dry for me), but I can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I was referring to recent support for warmth on the board...its been nice...for working outside the winds has suck...yesterday was a crappy day....nice fail You have to adjust your definition of crappy. Yesterday my baby girl and I went for a mile walk and neither of us complained. If a 10 month old doesnt complain neither should you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 The really rough part of this pattern is that the models keep pushing their rainfall further away as we get closer like a mirage in the desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 The really rough part of this pattern is that the models keep pushing their rainfall further away as we get closer like a mirage in the desert. That kind of idea also came up in the teleconnection analogs that were the basis of my April 16-22 thoughts. The area in the black diamond showed the highest probability of wet anomalies. The area in the red circle showed the lowest probability of wet anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 You have to adjust your definition of crappy. Yesterday my baby girl and I went for a mile walk and neither of us complained. If a 10 month old doesnt complain neither should you. amen to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 And the beat goes on -- through today, only 2 days below normal temp wise in NYC, and they were both -1 departures, so essentially normal. Today or tomorrow may pencil in a slight negative, but then we're solidly above normal once again for this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are likely to be underdone on MOS given the dry ground and still bare vegeation. I expect 70-73 degree highs on Saturday, and probably low 80s for Sunday. Monday I'm a bit concerned we backdoor from PHL northeast, but still well above normal. Prior to FROPA, Tuesday should be a torch as well, with 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 And the beat goes on -- through today, only 2 days below normal temp wise in NYC, and they were both -1 departures, so essentially normal. Today or tomorrow may pencil in a slight negative, but then we're solidly above normal once again for this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are likely to be underdone on MOS given the dry ground and still bare vegeation. I expect 70-73 degree highs on Saturday, and probably low 80s for Sunday. Monday I'm a bit concerned we backdoor from PHL northeast, but still well above normal. Prior to FROPA, Tuesday should be a torch as well, with 80s. Euro keeps the backdoor front away on Monday and pumps temps into the low to mid 80's for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 And EWR hasn't been below yet. Today is probably the best chance though they'll have to stay below 57/58. Departures are only in the 2.5-3.5 range for the month though I'm sure we'll be 4 to 5 above by next week at this time. And the beat goes on -- through today, only 2 days below normal temp wise in NYC, and they were both -1 departures, so essentially normal. Today or tomorrow may pencil in a slight negative, but then we're solidly above normal once again for this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are likely to be underdone on MOS given the dry ground and still bare vegeation. I expect 70-73 degree highs on Saturday, and probably low 80s for Sunday. Monday I'm a bit concerned we backdoor from PHL northeast, but still well above normal. Prior to FROPA, Tuesday should be a torch as well, with 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 12z gfs keeps the front south of our area for this weekend resulting in a cooler and rainier Saturday night and Sunday. Let's hope the euro is correct from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 12z gfs keeps the front south of our area for this weekend resulting in a cooler and rainier Saturday night and Sunday. Let's hope the euro is correct from last night. the gfs lost to the euro last summer every time it showed a front coming through early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 the gfs lost to the euro last summer every time it showed a front coming through early Hope so. The new 12zggem is pretty similar to last night's euro, so that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 And the beat goes on -- through today, only 2 days below normal temp wise in NYC, and they were both -1 departures, so essentially normal. Today or tomorrow may pencil in a slight negative, but then we're solidly above normal once again for this weekend into early next week. Temperatures are likely to be underdone on MOS given the dry ground and still bare vegeation. I expect 70-73 degree highs on Saturday, and probably low 80s for Sunday. Monday I'm a bit concerned we backdoor from PHL northeast, but still well above normal. Prior to FROPA, Tuesday should be a torch as well, with 80s. The way things have been going I think we may have to redefine what really is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Hope so. The new 12zggem is pretty similar to last night's euro, so that's a good sign. Again, why anyone of you people would want 80s right now is beyond me and due to the recent fire dangers as well as drought concerns, that's really the last thing you should root for. The warmth will only dry things out even further and once the dews drop and the winds pick up, the fire danger as well as an increasing drought will continue. I see very little moisture in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 2009 was the last year that we saw on the cooler side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 2009 was the last year that we saw on the cooler side. And not surprising that 2009 featured a developing El Nino by the summer months, which was when we began to cool. NYC's temp departures in 2009 were generally near or slightly above normal for the Jan-May period, then below normal pretty much from June through December 2009. Hence why many of the longer term models are suggesting the start of a cool period this summer potentially lasting through autumn. I haven't made up my mind yet on this upcoming summer's departures, but I do believe we're going to see this 2 year torch come to an end in the next few months most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 MJO forecasts are in good consensus on the transition from p1-->COD over the next 10 days. This coupled with a slightly positive NAO/AO in a dying Nina yields a warmer than normal picture for the Eastern US. We'll see a couple strong cool shots but they'll be very transient (less than 2 days in duration) which has been par for the course lately. Overall, I continue to like the ideas and analogs put forth in the original post going forward into mid/late April. May of 1976 turned very cold, but was the only one of my 4 analogs to do so. Even still, that option will have to be examined further in a couple weeks. Right now I think it's highly unlikely that we see a May comparable to 1976, or even cooler than normal (leaning slightly warmer than normal atm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 And not surprising that 2009 featured a developing El Nino by the summer months, which was when we began to cool. NYC's temp departures in 2009 were generally near or slightly above normal for the Jan-May period, then below normal pretty much from June through December 2009. Hence why many of the longer term models are suggesting the start of a cool period this summer potentially lasting through autumn. I haven't made up my mind yet on this upcoming summer's departures, but I do believe we're going to see this 2 year torch come to an end in the next few months most likely. 2009 was very different than this year so far. Notice how much colder North America was through JFM of 2009 than this year. My early guess is that JJA averaged out will have a positive departure for NYC though I am not sure of the magnitude yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 My guess is that late summer through fall will be average (1981-2010) or slightly below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 11, 2012 Author Share Posted April 11, 2012 2009 was very different than this year so far. Notice how much colder North America was through JFM of 2009 than this year. My early guess is that JJA averaged out will have a positive departure for NYC though I am not sure of the magnitude yet. I agree that 2012 is quite a bit different than 2009. My point was that an El Nino coming on provides a much higher chance of finally seeing a negative temp departure month in NYC. I'm uncertain when that will occur, but like you, I don't believe it will be this month or May. 1976 was a very warm winter nationwide, then transitioned into a chilly summer. However, 1976 warmth pales in comparison to this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I agree that 2012 is quite a bit different than 2009. My point was that an El Nino coming on provides a much higher chance of finally seeing a negative temp departure month in NYC. I'm uncertain when that will occur, but like you, I don't believe it will be this month or May. 1976 was a very warm winter nationwide, then transitioned into a chilly summer. However, 1976 warmth pales in comparison to this year. Yeah,it's hard to predict when we may finally see a below normal departure month next here with North America running so warm. The cooler months here since 2010 were in the winter when we had strong blocking. But even then the cold was nothing to write home about. Long term pattern breaks or changes are pretty tricky to forecast ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Was chilly today at mets game...not to mention the mets bats which were ice cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 18z GFS makes a move toward the Euro w/ a very warm look Sun-Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 18z GFS makes a move toward the Euro w/ a very warm look Sun-Tues. Awesome lets get this heat started and get us into the summer swing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 0z and 6z GFS continue to trend towards the Euro. The 0z Euro, has 2m temps between 82-90F into Southern New England now, on Monday, and again on Tuesday ahead of the cold front. 850mb temps are between 14-18C. So 90 degrees in some spots is possible, if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Awesome lets get this heat started and get us into the summer swing It's April 12th. Its the equivalent of me asking for temps in the 20s on October 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 6z NAM for Sunday at 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Awesome lets get this heat started and get us into the summer swing + 1 million Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 You know when there is a -EPO/-NAO and the temps are still above normal that there is no cold around. NYC +1.8 on the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 It's April 12th. Its the equivalent of me asking for temps in the 20s on October 12th. Bring on the heat..get ready mr dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 You know when there is a -EPO/-NAO and the temps are still above normal that there is no cold around. NYC +1.8 on the month With the Arctic remaining unseasonably warm for the most part, there's not much cold to tap. Downstream, cold shots are modest and short-lived. Consequently, what should typically have produced a colder outcome than what occurred, has seen the cold underperform. April remains solidly on course to go into the books as yet another warm month in the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.