ag3 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Yesterday was the 7th day in a row with a negative departure for NYC, -8. NYC is now + 2.2 for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Yesterday was the 7th day in a row with a negative departure for NYC, -8. NYC is now + 2.2 for the month. LGA was -3 today. Not sure about the park but probably at least that much as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 LGA was -3 today. Not sure about the park but probably at least that much as well. NYC finished -4 yesterday. The 8th day in a row of negative departures. NYC is now only +1.9 for the month. Big turnaround after the crazy heat earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 It also appears that blocking and -nao have taken over. The euro ensembles have a -nao for the next 10 days+. The GFS ensembles also have the -nao regime lasting for at least the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 NYC finished -4 yesterday. The 8th day in a row of negative departures. NYC is now only +1.9 for the month. Big turnaround after the crazy heat earlier in the month. Wow...impressive cold week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 NYC finished -4 yesterday. The 8th day in a row of negative departures. NYC is now only +1.9 for the month. Big turnaround after the crazy heat earlier in the month. Impressive long stretch of -5 to -10 departures. But that's not even close to matching the +15 to +25 depatures, we saw 3 day heat, earlier in the month. Today's departure will be probably closer to 0 in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 Impressive long stretch of -5 to -10 departures. But that's not even close to matching the +15 to +25 depatures, we saw 3 day heat, earlier in the month. Today's departure will be probably closer to 0 in NYC. Given the past 5 months, this week has been impressive, but -5 to -10 departures are only moderately below avg, and as you said pales in comparison to the numerous +15 - +20 days we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Impressive long stretch of -5 to -10 departures. But that's not even close to matching the +15 to +25 depatures, we saw 3 day heat, earlier in the month. Today's departure will be probably closer to 0 in NYC. Considering NYC will be only +1.6 to +1.9, its very impressive to erase those gigantic anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Given the past 5 months, this week has been impressive, but -5 to -10 departures are only moderately below avg, and as you said pales in comparison to the numerous +15 - +20 days we've seen. I agree. -5 to -10 on it's own, isn't that impressive. But an entire week's worth of that, is something we have since last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Rain tonight or tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 NAM looks like a decent hit late tonight and tomorrow morning...a little over .5" Rain tonight or tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Rain tonight or tomorrow? Looks like rain starts overnight around 2am and is over by 12pm tomorrow. 12z NAM has .50" of rain for the area. A little more to the north and less to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Thank you guys...always ontop of it ..much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 It also appears that blocking and -nao have taken over. The euro ensembles have a -nao for the next 10 days+. The GFS ensembles also have the -nao regime lasting for at least the next 2 weeks. It's certainly not the warmest looking pattern up this way for sure..and maybe even NYC. Split flowish too. Glad you see this as well. A few SNE weenies think the torch continues, but the 1st half of May certainly doesn't seem particularly torch-like...especially here. Why the fook couldn't we get this H5 pattern 3 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 May has typically been cooler relative to the means than April across the CONUS over the last ten years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 May has typically been cooler relative to the means than April across the CONUS over the last ten years. since 2000 the average April max is 86.6 counting this year...May is averaging 86.9 since 2000...Not a significant increase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 Why the fook couldn't we get this H5 pattern 3 months ago. That part doesn't surprise me too much...crappy +NAO winter patterns tend to precede a -NAO development at the worst time, i.e now into summer. Next couple weeks looks near normal to me. No prolonged heat or cool, but a number of somewhat above and below norm temp days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 That part doesn't surprise me too much...crappy +NAO winter patterns tend to precede a -NAO development at the worst time, i.e now into summer. Next couple weeks looks near normal to me. No prolonged heat or cool, but a number of somewhat above and below norm temp days I know...just too bad we couldn't get that look a few months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 30, 2012 Author Share Posted April 30, 2012 I know...just too bad we couldn't get that look a few months ago. Yeah. I'm just glad this Nina is finally dead; I think both of our regions would love a weak nino next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 a -nao this time of year can mean seasonable temps and dry nw flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Yeah. I'm just glad this Nina is finally dead; I think both of our regions would love a weak nino next year Amen brother. Tired of seeing troughs out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 since 2000 the average April max is 86.6 counting this year...May is averaging 86.9 since 2000...Not a significant increase... NYC May departures. Forgot how cool and dreary 2005 and 2003 were. 2008 i rememeber well as we were tracking what would turn out to be a huge reversal by june. 2011 : + 2.1 2010 : + 2.9 2009 : +0.1 2008 : - 2.3 2007: + 2.8 2006 : +0.7 2005 : - 3.5 2004 : +2.8 2003 : - 3.7 2002 : -1.7 2001 : + 1.2 2000 : + 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Actually, it looks to me like we're beginning to change the very warm picture in the Arctic. In fact, compared to a couple weeks ago, we've seen a fairly impressive cool down in the northern latitudes. Courtesy of Dr. Ryan M site, April 15th global sfc temp anomalies: April 29th: Below normal now in much of the Arctic. If this continues, it will likely have implications with our future trough amplification events (down the road). While this is a signifcant improvement in the Arctic, it truly is disheartening to still see such severely above normal conditions north of Western Russia/Eastern Europe persisting. I fear for the well-being of the Arctic wildlife that are better served by icier conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 This is the clearest blocking signal I've seen all season long. Since it's too late for it to do much more than preventing a torch pattern and keeping temperatures closer to average, hopefully at least some blocking continues by next winter... I'm looking back through my 500mb archive this winter and the only thing I see is just a giant PV endlessly spinning around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 since 2000 the average April max is 86.6 counting this year...May is averaging 86.9 since 2000...Not a significant increase... NYC May departures. Forgot how cool and dreary 2005 and 2003 were. 2008 i rememeber well as we were tracking what would turn out to be a huge reversal by june. 2011 : + 2.1 2010 : + 2.9 2009 : +0.1 2008 : - 2.3 2007: + 2.8 2006 : +0.7 2005 : - 3.5 2004 : +2.8 2003 : - 3.7 2002 : -1.7 2001 : + 1.2 2000 : + 1.1 I think that that's the main reason why hotspots like EWR haven't hit 100 degrees in May yet. The April average temperature in NYC has been increasing .54 degree per decade vs .29 For May. April May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 18z GFS increased qpf to .50"-.75" as well now for tomorrow, matching the NAM. Some other models, like the rgem, have .75"-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Ewr's earliest 100 was last June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 DGEX still sticks with 90 for Friday, and it's almost in the NAM's range. GFS also has mid 80s which would end up warmer if that scenario verifies given its cool bias during warm spell. 90 is probably a bit too high, although if there's enough sunshine with SW winds 80s are easily within reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 1, 2012 Author Share Posted May 1, 2012 April Verification Forecasted April temp anomalies: Actual temp anomalies: Forecasted precip anomalies: Actual precip anomalies: Pretty much a blowtorch nationwide. Analogs worked fairly well in terms of the warmth and precip maximum in the central US, dry in the East. One flaw was the West Coast, which also finished warm for April, contrary to the cooler analogs. NYC final temp departure in the +1.5 to +2 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 the Mt Holly disco for the next 5 days seems all over the map and Im confused as all heck as to what is going to happen. Looks like confidence is very low for the upcoming period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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