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April outlook - will the warmth continue?


Isotherm

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LGA was -3 today. Not sure about the park but probably at least that much as well.

NYC finished -4 yesterday. The 8th day in a row of negative departures.

NYC is now only +1.9 for the month. Big turnaround after the crazy heat earlier in the month.

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NYC finished -4 yesterday. The 8th day in a row of negative departures.

NYC is now only +1.9 for the month. Big turnaround after the crazy heat earlier in the month.

Impressive long stretch of -5 to -10 departures. But that's not even close to matching the +15 to +25 depatures, we saw 3 day heat, earlier in the month. Today's departure will be probably closer to 0 in NYC.

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Impressive long stretch of -5 to -10 departures. But that's not even close to matching the +15 to +25 depatures, we saw 3 day heat, earlier in the month. Today's departure will be probably closer to 0 in NYC.

Given the past 5 months, this week has been impressive, but -5 to -10 departures are only moderately below avg, and as you said pales in comparison to the numerous +15 - +20 days we've seen.

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Impressive long stretch of -5 to -10 departures. But that's not even close to matching the +15 to +25 depatures, we saw 3 day heat, earlier in the month. Today's departure will be probably closer to 0 in NYC.

Considering NYC will be only +1.6 to +1.9, its very impressive to erase those gigantic anomalies.

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Given the past 5 months, this week has been impressive, but -5 to -10 departures are only moderately below avg, and as you said pales in comparison to the numerous +15 - +20 days we've seen.

I agree. -5 to -10 on it's own, isn't that impressive. But an entire week's worth of that, is something we have since last fall.

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It also appears that blocking and -nao have taken over. The euro ensembles have a -nao for the next 10 days+.

The GFS ensembles also have the -nao regime lasting for at least the next 2 weeks.

It's certainly not the warmest looking pattern up this way for sure..and maybe even NYC. Split flowish too. Glad you see this as well. A few SNE weenies think the torch continues, but the 1st half of May certainly doesn't seem particularly torch-like...especially here. Why the fook couldn't we get this H5 pattern 3 months ago.

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Why the fook couldn't we get this H5 pattern 3 months ago.

That part doesn't surprise me too much...crappy +NAO winter patterns tend to precede a -NAO development at the worst time, i.e now into summer.

Next couple weeks looks near normal to me. No prolonged heat or cool, but a number of somewhat above and below norm temp days

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That part doesn't surprise me too much...crappy +NAO winter patterns tend to precede a -NAO development at the worst time, i.e now into summer.

Next couple weeks looks near normal to me. No prolonged heat or cool, but a number of somewhat above and below norm temp days

I know...just too bad we couldn't get that look a few months ago.

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since 2000 the average April max is 86.6 counting this year...May is averaging 86.9 since 2000...Not a significant increase...

NYC May departures. Forgot how cool and dreary 2005 and 2003 were. 2008 i rememeber well as we were tracking what would turn out to be a huge reversal by june.

2011 : + 2.1

2010 : + 2.9

2009 : +0.1

2008 : - 2.3

2007: + 2.8

2006 : +0.7

2005 : - 3.5

2004 : +2.8

2003 : - 3.7

2002 : -1.7

2001 : + 1.2

2000 : + 1.1

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Actually, it looks to me like we're beginning to change the very warm picture in the Arctic. In fact, compared to a couple weeks ago, we've seen a fairly impressive cool down in the northern latitudes.

Courtesy of Dr. Ryan M site, April 15th global sfc temp anomalies:

sv53kg.jpg

April 29th:

2j4zria.jpg

Below normal now in much of the Arctic. If this continues, it will likely have implications with our future trough amplification events (down the road).

While this is a signifcant improvement in the Arctic, it truly is disheartening to still see such severely above normal conditions north of Western Russia/Eastern Europe persisting. I fear for the well-being of the Arctic wildlife that are better served by icier conditions. :cry:

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This is the clearest blocking signal I've seen all season long. Since it's too late for it to do much more than preventing a torch pattern and keeping temperatures closer to average, hopefully at least some blocking continues by next winter... I'm looking back through my 500mb archive this winter and the only thing I see is just a giant PV endlessly spinning around.

post-1753-0-08249700-1335817140.gif

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since 2000 the average April max is 86.6 counting this year...May is averaging 86.9 since 2000...Not a significant increase...

NYC May departures. Forgot how cool and dreary 2005 and 2003 were. 2008 i rememeber well as we were tracking what would turn out to be a huge reversal by june.

2011 : + 2.1

2010 : + 2.9

2009 : +0.1

2008 : - 2.3

2007: + 2.8

2006 : +0.7

2005 : - 3.5

2004 : +2.8

2003 : - 3.7

2002 : -1.7

2001 : + 1.2

2000 : + 1.1

I think that that's the main reason why hotspots like EWR haven't hit 100 degrees in May yet.

The April average temperature in NYC has been increasing .54 degree per decade vs .29 For May.

April

May

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DGEX still sticks with 90 for Friday, and it's almost in the NAM's range. GFS also has mid 80s which would end up warmer if that scenario verifies given its cool bias during warm spell. 90 is probably a bit too high, although if there's enough sunshine with SW winds 80s are easily within reach.

post-1753-0-72782000-1335826497.gif

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April Verification

Forecasted April temp anomalies:

153_104_187_86_87_13_46_57.png

Actual temp anomalies:

11spabm.png

Forecasted precip anomalies:

Untitled.png

Actual precip anomalies:

9iafea.png

Pretty much a blowtorch nationwide. Analogs worked fairly well in terms of the warmth and precip maximum in the central US, dry in the East. One flaw was the West Coast, which also finished warm for April, contrary to the cooler analogs.

NYC final temp departure in the +1.5 to +2 range

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