nycsnow Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I don't believe that the departures will be that extreme as our highs will obviously go up as time goes along which will mitigate the impact. Good point jd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Good point jd! I forgot to place that in my original post. Don't get me wrong, I agree with the "look" of it...just not the 'extent' of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I think the we should face the fact that we will probably be above normal all the time with maybe an occasional near to slightly below normal month. The difference is how warm things will be. Will we see March like temperature anomalies or what we may see this month, +2, +3 instead of +5 +6 or higher. The dryness and lack of storminess also favors above normal temperatures for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I forgot to place that in my original post. Don't get me wrong, I agree with the "look" of it...just not the 'extent' of it. Yeah I agree I mean the later it gets the higher the average gets, so while the heat will still look impressive not as impressive as if it were say a month ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I think the we should face the fact that we will probably be above normal all the time with maybe an occasional near to slightly below normal month. The difference is how warm things will be. Will we see March like temperature anomalies or what we may see this month, +2, +3 instead of +5 +6 or higher. The dryness and lack of storminess also favors above normal temperatures for the summer. Not sure I agree...summers in which an El Niño was developing had a cooler than normal look to them across much of the country. Considering the MJO wave and the rapid warming of the tropical Pacific, we may be headed in this direction: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Yeah I agree I mean the later it gets the higher the average gets, so while the heat will still look impressive not as impressive as if it were say a month ago Absolutely anomaly wise the heat in March will likely be the highest of any of the upcoming months. I doubt we see +10 or higher readings in the summer months or we'd be living in Death Valley with highs somewhere from 110+ for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Not sure I agree...summers in which an El Niño was developing had a cooler than normal look to them across much of the country. Considering the MJO wave and the rapid warming of the tropical Pacific, we may be headed in this direction: We also have to remember all the analogs that were thrown out there regarding a cold winter due to a double dip La Nina. At this point, it could go either way...but the trends aren't looking good for a cooler spring and summer. However, there are those who are pushing the CFS model as their backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 We also have to remember all the analogs that were thrown out there regarding a cold winter due to a double dip La Nina. At this point, it could go either way...but the trends aren't looking good for a cooler spring and summer. However, there are those who are pushing the CFS model as their backing. Major drought and fire danger with a warm spring and hotter than normal summer unless we get some rainy periods soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Major drought and fire danger with a warm spring and hotter than normal summer unless we get some rainy periods soon. We should have two opportunities for rain associated with the warm up next week as the upper low departs the area and ridging from the Midwest builds east. The first is a warm frontal passage, nicely depicted by the GFS: The second is an overrunning scenario, which the GFS may be overdoing at this time. It's possible we do see convective/instability rains ahead of the cold front as the low passes us: It's been difficult in the last 10 years for the NYC metro to maintain a long stretch of below-normal precipitation, so we'll see if the drought breaks in mid April as warmer temperatures return to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Both rain opportunities are out in the longer range and still a long shot, we may see some showers but we need a good soaking, not a .10 of an inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 wxoutlooks... APRIL 2012T--N/A. P--N. S--None. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY--N. NUMBER OF 90 DEGREE DAYS CENTRAL PARK--0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I think the we should face the fact that we will probably be above normal all the time . Since you seem knowledgeable in this area, can you tell me if time has a definite ending point or does it simply go on ad infinitum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Given the progression of April thus far: Of my 4 analogs for this month, I think April 1-15th 1976 will be most similar: Here's what happened April 16-30th 1976 -- the core of the warmth moved to the East: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 1986 April 1-15: 1986 April 15-30: Not a bad match either. April 1-15th 2009 was quite a bit colder across the MW-East than this year. April 2001 actually turned cold after the 15th, which should be opposite this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 FWIW -- the CFS agrees on the warmer than normal April. And just for laughs, but this would suck if it verified -- the CFS has a below normal temp May, June, July, August, September, October, November...then a torch for December 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 FWIW -- the CFS agrees on the warmer than normal April. And just for laughs, but this would suck if it verified -- the CFS has a below normal temp May, June, July, August, September, October, November...then a torch for December 2012. There will be quite a few people who will not be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 wind gust of 38 mph not to long ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Really nice outside.Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Unforecasted wind storm tonight. My point and click says 10-15mph, no mention of high winds until tomorrow. Just gusted to 35mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Unforecasted wind storm tonight. My point and click says 10-15mph, no mention of high winds until tomorrow. Just gusted to 35mph. Winds just knocked out our power 11:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Yea very windy here as well. Was still nice out even after plane from ft lauderdale...transition wasnt as bad as in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 The Euro ensembles now showing 14C-16C 850mb temps, in the area, next Monday. That would support highs in the middle to upper 80s, with enough sunshine. I wouldn't be shocked if Newark hit 90. Especially if we don't see much rain, before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Absolutely anomaly wise the heat in March will likely be the highest of any of the upcoming months. I doubt we see +10 or higher readings in the summer months or we'd be living in Death Valley with highs somewhere from 110+ for days on end. Yeah, that's how it goes around here. The highest departure ranges are during the colder months with the greater temperature contrast between north and south. Our warmest recent winter was a +6.8 and our hottest summer was +3.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 6-10 day GFS and Euro ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 Just recorded my highest wind gust of 2012 so far here in Monmouth County -- 45mph. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Over the last 10 years or so both March and April are averaging around 2 degrees above the 1981-2010 averages. Our springs are too cold I'm glad they are warming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 The Euro ensembles now showing 14C-16C 850mb temps, in the area, next Monday. That would support highs in the middle to upper 80s, with enough sunshine. I wouldn't be shocked if Newark hit 90. Especially if we don't see much rain, before that. Nice post...if those mid level temps come to pass Newark will more than likely get to 90 degrees. I'm worried about potential delay or denial of big heat though. The pattern over SE Canada is very active. It won't take much of a shift for our area to be sitting along a gradient and surface warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Nice post...if those mid level temps come to pass Newark will more than likely get to 90 degrees. I'm worried about potential delay or denial of big heat though. The pattern over SE Canada is very active. It won't take much of a shift for our area to be sitting along a gradient and surface warm front. Why is everyone in such a hurry to see summer time temps so early. If you all love the warmth so much, then move to Florida or Arizona/South California or something. I'm perfectly fine with 60/70s in April and May, were going to see 90s for days on end from June-August or even into September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Why is everyone in such a hurry to see summer time temps so early. If you all love the warmth so much, then move to Florida or Arizona/South California or something. I'm perfectly fine with 60/70s in April and May, were going to see 90s for days on end from June-August or even into September. Anything above 80 in April makes me want to vomit. Anything over 70 with high dewpoints also makes me sick. The last few days have been stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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