NYCSuburbs Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 GFS looks really warm for late next week with widespread 80s... With this warm surge I'd think that at least one day ends up very warm, as in mid 80s or higher, but back door cold fronts usually pop up somewhere in these big spring warm spells, and if one does show up, it'd probably be on Wednesday behind a weak low pressure on Tuesday. It's possible the BDCF never drops through NYC, instead leaving the area very warm with 80s from Wednesday to Friday as the GFS/DGEX show, but it seems that around this time of the year they frequently drop south of NYC during warm spells, usually leaving at least one (or two) warm days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 28, 2012 Author Share Posted April 28, 2012 31.7F this morning in Monmouth County. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 One can also see that the NAO blocking did not result in a cool Northeast in most of those years b/c the North Pacific/EPO/PNA pattern did not cooperate. 2008 was cold in the Northeast b/c we had the ridging from greenland connect to the pos height field on the BC coast. This May, even if we do get blocking, I don't anticipate the Pacific cooperating to give us a cold May. We'll see. I tell people all the time that the tellies is a "marriage of sorts". If one doesn't play ball, than it mitigates the one that looks like a home run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 dgex is always overstating temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Yesterday makes it 6 days in a row with a negative departure. Came it at -8. NYC is now +2.6 for the month. Today will probably be -8 to -11. And also tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Yesterday makes 6th day in a row with negative departures. Came it at -8. NYC is now +2.6 for the month. Today is will probably be -8 to -11. And also tomorrow. Impressive for late april...had to turn my heat back on...poor heat lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Impressive for late april...had to turn my heat back on...poor heat lovers After the 3 days in a row of mega heat and +20 daily departures, we have made a big comeback towards normal. We probably finish only +1 to +2 for the month, after the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Yesterday makes it 6 days in a row with a negative departure. Came it at -8. NYC is now +2.6 for the month. Today will probably be -8 to -11. And also tomorrow. It's been tough to get sustained below normal temperatures without a big East Coast storm. The last streak of below normal was at the end of October and beginning November with the big storm back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 The low was 35.4F here in Westchester, came home for the weekend and it was indeed a chilly night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Today's Euro definitely looked very backdoor-y with low heights over the Maritimes. That can easily set up the high and easterly flow in our area. The ridge keeps getting beaten down as it tries to build east, and eventually settles in the Midwest. I'd be wary of predicting very warm readings unless that trough to our NE weakens or pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 lost in all of this is that it looks like the trend of systems drying up as they reach us is still in full effect. The big storm last week was an aberration and we are back to the previous pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 lost in all of this is that it looks like the trend of systems drying up as they reach us is still in full effect. The big storm last week was an aberration and we are back to the previous pattern. This looks like it going to be the first JFMA at Central Park to come in under 10 inches since 2002. SINCE JAN 1 9.12 15.18 -6.06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 CPC's 6 - 10 and 8 - 14 day outlooks both have greater than 50% probability of below normal temps in our area...well, at least Long Island is in the blue in the 1st outlook...Jersey is sort of borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Maybe May may end up below average? Nice blocking, -AO/NAO and +PNA setting up end of 1st week of May. Temps may not get that warm either prior to the cooldown due to backdoor fronts providing easterly flow. I'm still thinking at least one day next week we'll get close to but not hit 90. More likely we'll see mid 80s at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Maybe May may end up below average? Nice blocking, -AO/NAO and +PNA setting up end of 1st week of May. Temps may not get that warm either prior to the cooldown due to backdoor fronts providing easterly flow. I'm still thinking at least one day next week we'll get close to but not hit 90. More likely we'll see mid 80s at most. Maybe not below average, but probably close to average or a little above overall. This is the boldest blocking signal of the entire season, and while obviously it won't snow, it could stay somewhat chilly for a while after the 1-2 day warmth surge late this upcoming week if the blocking actually develops as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 NYC will still finish April above normal even with a mean trough over the Northeast. Goes to show how the cold has been underperforming with a warmer Arctic. This has been a common theme here since 2010 with warmer troughs than had been experienced under past similar 500 mb patterns. Check out how 2011 was warmer than average across Canada even with a mean trough in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 NYC will still finish April above normal even with a mean trough over the Northeast. Goes to show how the cold has been underperforming with a warmer Arctic. This has been a common theme here since 2010 with warmer troughs than had been experienced under past similar 500 mb patterns. Check out how 2011 was warmer than average across Canada even with a mean trough in place. And that is when compared to the latest 30 year block, the warmest 30 year climate block since records began being kept. It's ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 above normal is the new normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 The NAM just couldn't make Tuesday's temperature outlook any easier... GFS has near 60, ECM has upper 60s, the 6z NAM had mid 50s while the new NAM run has nearly 70 degrees. At least there's an agreement that the rain should mostly end by noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 The NAM just couldn't make Tuesday's temperature outlook any easier... GFS has near 60, ECM has upper 60s, the 6z NAM had mid 50s while the new NAM run has nearly 70 degrees. At least there's an agreement that the rain should mostly end by noon. so it sounds like the ecm and nam are close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 so it sounds like the ecm and nam are close NAM even seems to be a bit warmer for some than the ECM, showing 80 SW of Trenton where the ECM has 75. The 6z NAM likely overdid the cold IMO, although given the sudden change I'd rather wait for the rest of the 12z/18z runs before completely siding with the warmer outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 NYC will still finish April above normal even with a mean trough over the Northeast. Goes to show how the cold has been underperforming with a warmer Arctic. This has been a common theme here since 2010 with warmer troughs than had been experienced under past similar 500 mb patterns. Check out how 2011 was warmer than average across Canada even with a mean trough in place. Good post. The persistence of warmth over the Arctic has been a major factor in keeping our troughs mild. Even if we see a slightly below normal H5 field over the Northeast for the month of May, I'd be surprised if sfc temp anomalies were below average. Maybe things will change as we head into the summer? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 Good post. The persistence of warmth over the Arctic has been a major factor in keeping our troughs mild. Even if we see a slightly below normal H5 field over the Northeast for the month of May, I'd be surprised if sfc temp anomalies were below average. Maybe things will change as we head into the summer? We'll see. Actually, it looks to me like we're beginning to change the very warm picture in the Arctic. In fact, compared to a couple weeks ago, we've seen a fairly impressive cool down in the northern latitudes. Courtesy of Dr. Ryan M site, April 15th global sfc temp anomalies: April 29th: Below normal now in much of the Arctic. If this continues, it will likely have implications with our future trough amplification events (down the road). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 Top 10 day of the year - cobalt blue skies, low humidity, temps in the low 60s - perfection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Top 10 day of the year - cobalt blue skies, low humidity, temps in the low 60s - perfection. Truly splendid out. We've had a several days like this - very california like out there. I think this is a week where we have to watch for clouds getting in the way but it should still be quite warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Good post. The persistence of warmth over the Arctic has been a major factor in keeping our troughs mild. Even if we see a slightly below normal H5 field over the Northeast for the month of May, I'd be surprised if sfc temp anomalies were below average. Maybe things will change as we head into the summer? We'll see. Thanks. I think that even with the drop in the NAO to start off the month we probably average out above normal for May. If the blocking persists long enough, it may make it a relatively small + departure compared to recent months. Too bad we didn't have this pattern during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Parts of the nid-atlantic will finish april near normal or only around 1 degree above, especially if you get away from the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 Parts of the nid-atlantic will finish april near normal or only around 1 degree above, especially if you get away from the big cities. Only a small percentage of the Northeast. Most will finish at least +1, closer to +2 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Actually, it looks to me like we're beginning to change the very warm picture in the Arctic. In fact, compared to a couple weeks ago, we've seen a fairly impressive cool down in the northern latitudes. Courtesy of Dr. Ryan M site, April 15th global sfc temp anomalies: April 29th: Below normal now in much of the Arctic. If this continues, it will likely have implications with our future trough amplification events (down the road). Can i get a link to the site for these images Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Can i get a link to the site for these images Thanks. http://policlimate.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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