uncle W Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Matches euro ensembles. Looks like a solid .50"ish of rain coming, which would put us above average for April. long term April precipitation average is around 3.7"...It's been close to 4.7" since 1980...3.5" so far...Two chances for rain before the month ends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 long term April precipitation average is around 3.7"...It's been close to 4.7" since 1980...3.5" so far...Two chances for rain before the month ends... it's good that we were able to cut our annual deficit down to -5.71 from over 8 inches with this last storm. SINCE JAN 1 9.05 14.76 -5.71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 it's good that we were able to cut our annual deficit down to -5.71 from over 8 inches with this last storm. SINCE JAN 1 9.05 14.76 -5.71 We should receive another .50"-.75" before April finishes. Maybe more if the Sunday system can come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 We should receive another .50"-.75" before April finishes. Maybe more if the Sunday system can come north. We can use all the rain that we can get. The last time that we closed out a month with so many negative temperature departure days was October. 27 61 38 50 -4 28 49 36 43 -10 29 45 33 39 -14 30 46 33 40 -13 31 53 37 45 -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 5 days in a row of below normal weather. Yesterday finished with a -4. NYC now down to a positive anomaly of +3. Looks like the next 5 days all have a chance at negative departures as well. Today will be a big departure. Probably -7 to -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 We've hit a high of 56 already back at midnight and the low so far is 46. Will depend on how quickly it drops tonight. 5 days in a row of below normal weather. Yesterday finished with a -4. NYC now down to a positive anomaly of +3. Looks like the next 5 days all have a chance at negative departures as well. Today will be a big departure. Probably -7 to -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 5 days in a row of below normal weather. Yesterday finished with a -4. NYC now down to a positive anomaly of +3. Looks like the next 5 days all have a chance at negative departures as well. Today will be a big departure. Probably -7 to -10. Also the most neg the AO's been since mid Jan below normal stretch. Definitely not a coincidence there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I would not rule out a cooler than average May even if it has a few hot days...Some of the analogs I like had some cool mid to late May temps...TWT...I'll probably go above average again for the temperature contest on the general forum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 We should receive another .50"-.75" before April finishes. Maybe more if the Sunday system can come north. upton has no mention of rain at all this weekend here and only 20-40% chance for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 upton has no mention of rain at all this weekend here and only 20-40% chance for the city. Yeah. Models pulled the rain away yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Gfs is consistent with some blocking end of first week of May after some hot weather. Before that, it could get really warm, probably more upper 80s/low 90s for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Cold today, getting restless for some warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 I would not rule out a cooler than average May even if it has a few hot days...Some of the analogs I like had some cool mid to late May temps...TWT...I'll probably go above average again for the temperature contest on the general forum... Yeah, 1976 was one of my May analogs, and that was a very cool result over the Northeast. However, I decided to go w/ the majority of my other analogs and pattern persistence for a mild May. Hopefully I won't regret that. May shouldn't be anomalously warm - probably only slightly above avg IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Looks like we will have a 1-2 day warmup next week...dgex has had 80+ temps ahead of a front for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 I'm thinking we see some 90s next week for a day or two, the gfs looks really warm as well leading up to cinco de mayo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Betting on blocking during May since 2005 has been another winning hand around here. Could these patterns be any more predictable that we have been experiencing lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Betting on blocking during May since 2005 has been another winning hand around here. Could these patterns be any more predictable that we have been experiencing lately. One can also see that the NAO blocking did not result in a cool Northeast in most of those years b/c the North Pacific/EPO/PNA pattern did not cooperate. 2008 was cold in the Northeast b/c we had the ridging from greenland connect to the pos height field on the BC coast. This May, even if we do get blocking, I don't anticipate the Pacific cooperating to give us a cold May. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 One can also see that the NAO blocking did not result in a cool Northeast in most of those years b/c the North Pacific/EPO/PNA pattern did not cooperate. 2008 was cold in the Northeast b/c we had the ridging from greenland connect to the pos height field on the BC coast. This May, even if we do get blocking, I don't anticipate the Pacific cooperating to give us a cold May. We'll see. As an example of the blocky May look, one of my analogs - 1951, had an NAO and AO between -0.5 and -1.0 SD, and PNA near +1.0 SD for the month. The resultant temp departure for US was still mild in the MW/Lakes and Northeast. One can see the cooling in the southern tier; however, which I think could be possible this month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Looks like the NAO and AO may go from positive to negative and the PNA goes positive starting the 2nd week of May so it'll be interesting to see how things evolve as we progress forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 The euro keeps us on the warm side even with blocking. I think we all know by now as we get closer to summer, the impacts of a -nao get less and less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 One can also see that the NAO blocking did not result in a cool Northeast in most of those years b/c the North Pacific/EPO/PNA pattern did not cooperate. 2008 was cold in the Northeast b/c we had the ridging from greenland connect to the pos height field on the BC coast. This May, even if we do get blocking, I don't anticipate the Pacific cooperating to give us a cold May. We'll see. Yeah, the last few Mays averaged above normal even with blocking so my guess is that we end up with another positive temperature departure this month. The only below normal months that we have experienced at NYC the last few years have been during the December to March period. May 2011..+1.9 May 2010..+2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Betting on blocking during May since 2005 has been another winning hand around here. Could these patterns be any more predictable that we have been experiencing lately. interesting how the year with the coolest summer didn't have blocking in may Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 interesting how the year with the coolest summer didn't have blocking in may The only cool summers were 2007 and 2009. 2005....+2.8 2006....+0.6 2007....-0.8 2008....+1.1 2009....-2.3 2010...+3.5 2011...+1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 the 12z euro keeps the 2m freezing line well nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 CPC has near normal temps and precip for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 the 12z euro keeps the 2m freezing line well nw I got down to 29 degrees and I am about 30-40 miles south of that freezing line on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 I got down to 29 degrees and I am about 30-40 miles south of that freezing line on the ECMWF. I *think* the map you are referencing concerns *Sunday's* morning lows... <admits not certain as map not time stamped> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 I got down to 29 degrees and I am about 30-40 miles south of that freezing line on the ECMWF. It was a cold morning on Long Island...NWS Upton down to 29 F and Westhampton down to 27 F. The record low for the date at Upton is 21.5 F set in 1972. http://www.bnl.gov/w...04-aprtemp.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 It looks like the first week of may will average above normal and the second closer to normal. Week 1 Week 2 It looks like the -AO will be responsible for the step down in temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Some of the models now have a warm front coming through late Tuesday and a fairly broad warm sector around the middle of next week. The DGEX has 90 F temps on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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