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April outlook - will the warmth continue?


Isotherm

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Matches euro ensembles. Looks like a solid .50"ish of rain coming, which would put us above average for April.

long term April precipitation average is around 3.7"...It's been close to 4.7" since 1980...3.5" so far...Two chances for rain before the month ends...

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long term April precipitation average is around 3.7"...It's been close to 4.7" since 1980...3.5" so far...Two chances for rain before the month ends...

it's good that we were able to cut our annual deficit down to -5.71 from over 8 inches with this last storm.

SINCE JAN 1 9.05 14.76 -5.71

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it's good that we were able to cut our annual deficit down to -5.71 from over 8 inches with this last storm.

SINCE JAN 1 9.05 14.76 -5.71

We should receive another .50"-.75" before April finishes. Maybe more if the Sunday system can come north.

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We should receive another .50"-.75" before April finishes. Maybe more if the Sunday system can come north.

We can use all the rain that we can get. The last time that we closed out a month with so many negative temperature departure days was October.

27 61 38 50 -4

28 49 36 43 -10

29 45 33 39 -14

30 46 33 40 -13

31 53 37 45 -7

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5 days in a row of below normal weather. Yesterday finished with a -4.

NYC now down to a positive anomaly of +3.

Looks like the next 5 days all have a chance at negative departures as well. Today will be a big departure. Probably -7 to -10.

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We've hit a high of 56 already back at midnight and the low so far is 46. Will depend on how quickly it drops tonight.

5 days in a row of below normal weather. Yesterday finished with a -4.

NYC now down to a positive anomaly of +3.

Looks like the next 5 days all have a chance at negative departures as well. Today will be a big departure. Probably -7 to -10.

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5 days in a row of below normal weather. Yesterday finished with a -4.

NYC now down to a positive anomaly of +3.

Looks like the next 5 days all have a chance at negative departures as well. Today will be a big departure. Probably -7 to -10.

Also the most neg the AO's been since mid Jan below normal stretch. Definitely not a coincidence there.

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I would not rule out a cooler than average May even if it has a few hot days...Some of the analogs I like had some cool mid to late May temps...TWT...I'll probably go above average again for the temperature contest on the general forum...

Yeah, 1976 was one of my May analogs, and that was a very cool result over the Northeast. However, I decided to go w/ the majority of my other analogs and pattern persistence for a mild May. Hopefully I won't regret that. May shouldn't be anomalously warm - probably only slightly above avg IMO.

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Betting on blocking during May since 2005 has been another winning hand around here. Could these patterns be any more

predictable that we have been experiencing lately. ;)

One can also see that the NAO blocking did not result in a cool Northeast in most of those years b/c the North Pacific/EPO/PNA pattern did not cooperate. 2008 was cold in the Northeast b/c we had the ridging from greenland connect to the pos height field on the BC coast. This May, even if we do get blocking, I don't anticipate the Pacific cooperating to give us a cold May. We'll see.

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One can also see that the NAO blocking did not result in a cool Northeast in most of those years b/c the North Pacific/EPO/PNA pattern did not cooperate. 2008 was cold in the Northeast b/c we had the ridging from greenland connect to the pos height field on the BC coast. This May, even if we do get blocking, I don't anticipate the Pacific cooperating to give us a cold May. We'll see.

As an example of the blocky May look, one of my analogs - 1951, had an NAO and AO between -0.5 and -1.0 SD, and PNA near +1.0 SD for the month. The resultant temp departure for US was still mild in the MW/Lakes and Northeast. One can see the cooling in the southern tier; however, which I think could be possible this month...

2wfvdhv.png

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One can also see that the NAO blocking did not result in a cool Northeast in most of those years b/c the North Pacific/EPO/PNA pattern did not cooperate. 2008 was cold in the Northeast b/c we had the ridging from greenland connect to the pos height field on the BC coast. This May, even if we do get blocking, I don't anticipate the Pacific cooperating to give us a cold May. We'll see.

Yeah, the last few Mays averaged above normal even with blocking so my guess is that we end up with another

positive temperature departure this month. The only below normal months that we have experienced at NYC

the last few years have been during the December to March period.

May 2011..+1.9

May 2010..+2.7

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Betting on blocking during May since 2005 has been another winning hand around here. Could these patterns be any more

predictable that we have been experiencing lately. ;)

interesting how the year with the coolest summer didn't have blocking in may

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Guest Pamela

I got down to 29 degrees and I am about 30-40 miles south of that freezing line on the ECMWF.

I *think* the map you are referencing concerns *Sunday's* morning lows...

<admits not certain as map not time stamped>

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