ag3 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 We have to watch for a miller B coastal re-developer for Sunday. Most models hint at it and so do a lot of euro and gfs ensemble members. 12z euro ensembles are pretty wet Sunday into Monday now with an overunning type event developing into a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 All models look fairly wet now for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Models again show a snowstorm for central and western NY. Unbelieveable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 The 0z euro ensembles have .50"-.75" of rain for Thursday. And then a wet weekend also with another .50"ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 The 0z euro ensembles have .50"-.75" of rain for Thursday. And then a wet weekend also with another .50"ish. From Southern Cali to the Pac NW in a week. Still looks like the ridge will dtart to build east by the beginning of May. Hopefully we can salvage Fri and Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 So today marks only the 2nd time all year we've been able to string 3 below normal days together. The other time we had 4 consecutive days in January. Depending on how mild we get on Thursday we might be able to hit 5 days or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 50 F, cloudy, and breezy - love it. Looks like we'll have a nice cool end to April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 50 F, cloudy, and breezy - love it. Looks like we'll have a nice cool end to April. 12z GFS has us in the 40s/50s this weekend into early next week w/ strong Canadian high pressure. Probably multiple frost/freeze opportunities in suburbia over the next week, starting with tonight. Should be temporary though; I think the cool is headed out after the first few days into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Nice and cool outside. It was 43 when I woke up this morning. Beautiful weather. GFS has a swfe for this weekend. Shows a couple of inches in central and western NY. Euro had the low further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 I hope the models back out of the extreme cold with highs in the 40's and I will scream if we see snow this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 I wouldnt scream if we see snow. I would gladly take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 From what the gfs shows, I would not be surprised if we saw some frozen precip this weekend with temps possibly dropping into the upper 30s around here when the rain comes in. If the system was stronger with more precip and if the high north was stronger, maybe some snow could have been in the cards, but we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 24, 2012 Author Share Posted April 24, 2012 From what the gfs shows, I would not be surprised if we saw some frozen precip this weekend with temps possibly dropping into the upper 30s around here when the rain comes in. If the system was stronger with more precip and if the high north was stronger, maybe some snow could have been in the cards, but we'll see what happens. Yeah, if we had this pattern a month ago we'd probably we talking a moderate snowfall. It's funny how mother nature gave us the classic bookend winter -- biggest northeast snowstorms in Oct and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Hopefully it is way too late to give any snowfall where it is almost May for christ sakes and it has only snowed twice in May for NYC since records where kept. Never yet measurable snow has occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Not saying it will snow but we thought it couldn't snow in October either, so late April wouldn't exactly be shocking. Hopefully it is way too late to give any snowfall where it is almost May for christ sakes and it has only snowed twice in May for NYC since records where kept. Never yet measurable snow has occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 The setup wasn't was exactly the same it was in late October the same then it was now plus we were talking about a much stronger storm in October to allow more colder air daming to allow to snow to happen. This looks more of a overrunning event with a possible weak Miller B developing oppose to a classic Noreaster. I am saying we can't see any snowflakes or any frozen precipation at all but accumulating snows is highly unlikely though. I prefer personally to wait until next season to see my snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 LOL-it's not going to snow in NYC on 4/28-30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Euro is kind of a bummer through next Monday. No real warmth. This is downright hideous, if true: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Support is growing for some type of swfe/coastal miller b re-developer for the Sunday timeframe. GFS has temps of 36-38 degrees with precip falling, even in the city. Euro looks about the same, maybe even a tad colder. Other globals agree as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Are you kidding me highs in the 30's with snow. I hope the models are on crack. Look at this at worse I could see highs in the mid 40's with cold rain with some sleet mixing in and maybe some wet snow just north of the city. http://www.nws.noaa....a=KISP&sta=KNYC And this looks more like a overrunning event than anything else with possiblity a weak miller B http://mag.ncep.noaa...0&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Is it going to rain all day Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Is it going to rain all day Thursday? Looks like a light rain type thing, mostly in the afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Looks like we'll probably see more warmth by early May with both AO/NAO positive. I know their influence begins to waiver the closer we get to summer but I'm pretty certain they still affect our weather patterns as they would in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Models now locking in a .25"-.50" rainfall for Thursday. We have to watch for more as well. The 6z NAM has .75"-1" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Yesterday was a -6 departure and the 3rd consecutive negative departure in a row. The next 2 days will be close to average but then we can see -6 to -10 departures to finish April. Looks like we will finish the month of April +2 to + 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 49 here. Love this weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Models now locking in a .25"-.50" rainfall for Thursday. We have to watch for more as well. The 6z NAM has .75"-1" of rain. NAM with its .75" of precip for tomorrow might not be overdone. Euro ensembles also have .50"-.75" of precip. Estimate .60", looking at the position of the precip shades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Latest NAM is considerably less, around .45 or so NAM with its .75" of precip for tomorrow might not be overdone. Euro ensembles also have .50"-.75" of precip. Estimate .60", looking at the position of the precip shades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 Latest NAM is considerably less, around .45 or so Matches euro ensembles. Looks like a solid .50"ish of rain coming, which would put us above average for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 25, 2012 Share Posted April 25, 2012 lol, the WRF has been hitting N PA and N NJ with snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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