jm1220 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 A big, phased solution would be a very wet one; I could honestly see some 4-5" rain amounts if the low meanders for a while and stalls. There's a lot of moisture to be tapped and a deepening low would provide great moisture transport for a sustained period if we see a stall. Showery weather would last quite a while too from a cutoff. We absolutely need a good phase though, if it's a late phase or no phase, we get a quick frontal passage and/or a storm that gets going too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 3/6/01? A big, phased solution would be a very wet one; I could honestly see some 4-5" rain amounts if the low meanders for a while and stalls. There's a lot of moisture to be tapped and a deepening low would provide great moisture transport for a sustained period if we see a stall. Showery weather would last quite a while too from a cutoff. We absolutely need a good phase though, if it's a late phase or no phase, we get a quick frontal passage and/or a storm that gets going too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 What a difference from the past 2 days here in Villanova PA. 50F with light rain right now, after 80 yesterday and 90 Monday. People are walking around saying it's freezing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 A big, phased solution would be a very wet one; I could honestly see some 4-5" rain amounts if the low meanders for a while and stalls. There's a lot of moisture to be tapped and a deepening low would provide great moisture transport for a sustained period if we see a stall. Showery weather would last quite a while too from a cutoff. We absolutely need a good phase though, if it's a late phase or no phase, we get a quick frontal passage and/or a storm that gets going too late. It looks like we'll still benefit even without a phase because there is a massive transport of moisture. Latest gfs shows it missing the phase but we still pick up nearly 2" so a fully phased solution may easily have 3-4" but that still to be determined. I wanna give it a couple more days to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 the pg is very weak so strong winds look unlikely. If the UKIE solution is correct there will be decent winds. A 988 low to our south even with out a strong high to our north will produce solid gales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Surface temp anomaly: Precipitation anomaly: Re my forecast from the original post, the analogs are working out very well with respect to temp and precip. Here is April thus far: We've got the cool on the West Coast; warmth in the Central/East. Precip - wet in the central US and dry in the East. Again, on par with the analogs. It'll be interesting to see how much we can dent this drought w/ the weekend storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 this Spring is on pace to become the warmest driest Spring on record...2010 is the warmest but was a wet one...This year has just over an inch and a half of precipitation since March 1st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 NYC monthly temperature departures since 1/10: 4/12 (so far)..+4.7 3/12.............+8.4 2/12.............+5.6 1/12.............+4.7 12/11..........+5.8 11/11..........+4.2 10/11..........+0.2 9/11............+2.0 8/11............+0.1 7/11............+3.7 6/11............+1.1 5/11............+1.9 4/11............ +1.8 3/11.............-0.2 2/11.............+1.4 1/11.............-2.4 12/10...........-4.5 11/10...........+0.8 10/10...........+1.5 9/10.............+3.6 8/10.............+2.3 7/10.............+4.8 6/10.............+3.4 5/10.............+2.7 4/10.............+5.4 3/10.............+5.7 2/10.............-1.5 1/10.............+0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 NYC monthly temperature departures since 1/10: 4/12 (so far)..+4.7 3/12.............+8.4 2/12.............+5.6 1/12.............+4.7 12/11..........+5.8 11/11..........+4.2 10/11..........+0.2 9/11............+2.0 8/11............+0.1 7/11............+3.7 6/11............+1.1 5/11............+1.9 4/11............ +1.8 3/11.............-0.2 2/11.............+1.4 1/11.............-2.4 12/10...........-4.5 11/10...........+0.8 10/10...........+1.5 9/10.............+3.6 8/10.............+2.3 7/10.............+4.8 6/10.............+3.4 5/10.............+2.7 4/10.............+5.4 3/10.............+5.7 2/10.............-1.5 1/10.............+0.4 If I had to deal with the vast majority of our months being above average, I wouldn't mind a chart that showed only winter months be below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 If I had to deal with the vast majority of our months being above average, I wouldn't mind a chart that showed only winter months be below normal. I guess that we were lucky that we got such great blocking back in 10 and 11. Just goes to show that we were able get epic snowstorms with moderately cold air and no record breaking arctic cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The data shows that only 3 months since 1/10 have been below normal with a couple right around normal. If this keeps up much longer I think we have to start thinking about rethinking what is average these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 The data shows that only 3 months since 1/10 have been below normal with a couple right around normal. If this keeps up much longer I think we have to start thinking about rethinking what is average these days. Even though the pattern switched to high latitude blocking this month, there was no cold available. We have seen several months the last few years when we averaged above normal with a trough near the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 another near record high minimum this morning....normal lows will fell cold after this past week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Today was ****ing beautiful. Got in three sets of tennis, went to the dog park and chilled outside...anybody who doesnt like this weather is crazy. So happy it didnt rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Agree. This is poetry. I look forward to a good storm tomorrow and I will lurk around Long Island beaches to see if there's flooding and wave action BUT otherwise give me another day like today. It justifies my whole miserable work week Today was ****ing beautiful. Got in three sets of tennis, went to the dog park and chilled outside...anybody who doesnt like this weather is crazy. So happy it didnt rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Agree. This is poetry. I look forward to a good storm tomorrow and I will lurk around Long Island beaches to see if there's flooding and wave action BUT otherwise give me another day like today. It justifies my whole miserable work week Haha i said the same to thing to my buddy, a day like today is what we need after a whole week inside miserable looking at a screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Today was ****ing beautiful. Got in three sets of tennis, went to the dog park and chilled outside...anybody who doesnt like this weather is crazy. So happy it didnt rain today And you told me you need 80s for outdoor activities! I agree today is gorgeous. Wish it was like this straight through June. Reminds me a bit of my grandparents' home in Europe that's 50m from the beach in the Mediterranean. The cooling sea breezes that would develop there every afternoon were great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 And you told me you need 80s for outdoor activities! I agree today is gorgeous. Wish it was like this straight through June. Reminds me a bit of my grandparents' home in Europe that's 50m from the beach in the Mediterranean. The cooling sea breezes that would develop there every afternoon were great. haha i never said you needed 80's for outdoor activities. 70 and sunny is perfect for sports, but too cool for beach and swimming...but again, my stress level is about zero right now as im sitting outside with the birds chirping, dog at my feet, and sun on my face. Really cannot get better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 At least today was nice and warm... the rest of the 5 day forecast almost looks like a typical Seattle forecast... chilly, mainly cloudy and occasionally rainy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 At least today was nice and warm... the rest of the 5 day forecast almost looks like a typical Seattle forecast... chilly, mainly cloudy and occasionally rainy: It's about time. We're not in Cali here; I do enjoy my cool, overcast days in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 It's about time. We're not in Cali here; I do enjoy my cool, overcast days in the spring. I was starting to get used to it. I dont think the forecast will be as bad as advertised once past Monday but it will be cooler/closer to normal or perhaps below for the next week or so. But It does looks like the ridge will build east again on/around May 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Haha i said the same to thing to my buddy, a day like today is what we need after a whole week inside miserable looking at a screen "Human beings weren't meant to sit in little cubicles, starring at computer screens all day, filling out useless forms and listening to eight different bosses drone on about mission statements." ...Peter Gibbons BTW, how are your TPS reports coming along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I really think tomorrow's storm will kind of be a pattern changer from now and entering summer because we haven't had anything like this in months. Unless this is just a wrench in the pattern, but somehow I think things will be different. Some chilly nights coming up this week as well, maybe some 30s for lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 "Human beings weren't meant to sit in little cubicles, starring at computer screens all day, filling out useless forms and listening to eight different bosses drone on about mission statements." ...Peter Gibbons BTW, how are your TPS reports coming along? haha well played...i dont hate my job, i hate being inside when ti is nice out, which by default encompasses my job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I really think tomorrow's storm will kind of be a pattern changer from now and entering summer because we haven't had anything like this in months. Unless this is just a wrench in the pattern, but somehow I think things will be different. Some chilly nights coming up this week as well, maybe some 30s for lows? The warmth looks to return by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 22, 2012 Author Share Posted April 22, 2012 The warmth looks to return by next weekend. Late next week/weekend actually looks quite cool for a few days w/ one of the strongest Canadian highs we've seen in awhile. Probably some frosts and freezes in suburbia given the set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 Models pointing out to more rain for Thursday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 GFS has another wet Sunday on its 12z run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 So will April finish off cool and we'll start seeing summer like heat starting in early May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 We have to watch for a miller B coastal re-developer for Sunday. Most models hint at it and so do a lot of euro and gfs ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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