Allsnow Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 The euro still has the storm and close to .75" of rain and a lot more for LI. This is normal model waffling until we approach closer. Big step down from 2 at 12z.....the trend east is not ideal right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Big step down from 2 at 12z.....the trend east is not ideal right now.... The 0z euro ensembles have a stronger low and hugging the coast and then cutting inland. A lot of rain also. More then the dgex. Looks like over 3" adding it up. Pretty impressive to see a smoothed mean with so much rain and a consolidated low. Has it raining hours 114-168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 If we think of it like our typical nor'easter in the winter, when do we ever get model consensus 5 or 6 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 several 90's and its interesting the warmest location is 93 at Westfield MA http://kamala.cod.ed...1.OKX.KOKX.html Not unusual at all...Westfield is traditionally one of the ovens of Massachusetts...no elevation and subject to severe downsloping / compressional warming as west winds come down the Berkshires / quasi chinook like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 The 0z euro ensembles have a stronger low and hugging the coast and then cutting inland. A lot of rain also. More then the dgex. Looks like over 3" adding it up. Pretty impressive to see a smoothed mean with so much rain and a consolidated low. Has it raining hours 114-168. I'm not so sure about a coastal, we would really want the -NAO to turn negative as it typically tends to go when a coastal hits. I was looking at the NAO charts and it may drop to neutral so there is only a slight indication that we could see a coastal storm. I'm still going toward a less consolidated low with pockets of heavier rains around the area for couple days. Those pockets alone could give someone up to 2-2.5" but on a more localized level rather than it being widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 12z GFS matches the euro ensembles with the weekend storm. Big time rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 The gfs shows what would be the most interesting weather event in months and a potential drought buster (although we are on the lower side compared to the 3-4"+ amounts to the west). Slow mover too so things would be unsettled for a few days, even some good snows in New England/Maine. It's a few days out there so things will continue to flip flop but I hope it materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 What's the op show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I feel like we've had these kinds of events before where the rain stays west of the delaware all day and then we get a deluge but all in a 4 to 6 hour period. The gfs shows what would be the most interesting weather event in months and a potential drought buster (although we are on the lower side compared to the 3-4"+ amounts to the west). Slow mover too so things would be unsettled for a few days, even some good snows in New England/Maine. It's a few days out there so things will continue to flip flop but I hope it materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I feel like we've had these kinds of events before where the rain stays west of the delaware all day and then we get a deluge but all in a 4 to 6 hour period. That's what I fear may happen especially considering were dealing with a negatively tilted trough that could easily be further west than the gfs has it now and the heavier rains may be out west while we miss out. On the other hand, if it's further east than the gfs shows, then we could easily pick up 1 month+ worth of rain in a couple days, we would also be dealing with strong winds, beach erosion, and other things you would find in a typical nor'easter as well as some very raw, if not chilly days in the upper 40s/low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 12z Canadian on board as well for the weekend soaker. Has close to 3" of rain as well. Saturday morning until Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 12z Canadien on board as well for the weekend soaker. Has close to 3" of rain as well. Saturday morning until Sunday night. Great, now I'll have to hear everyone at work complain about the rain all weekend. The fact that we've been spoiled for months, with rain free weather over a couple weeks along with record warmth this winter and early spring will mean nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Great, now I'll have to hear everyone at work complain about the rain all weekend. The fact that we've been spoiled for months, with rain free weather over a couple weeks along with record warmth this winter and early spring will mean nothing. Why on the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 It would be one weekend. Stay inside, play some board games with your family, and enjoy your home. We need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 It would be one weekend. Stay inside, play some board games with your family, and enjoy your home. We need the rain. Agreed, lawns have really browned out in just the past few days, noticing more and more brown patches so I welcome the rain. Now we'll just have to see if the dent in the drought will be significant (2"+) or just temporary (under 2"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 meh, its not super dry....sure we could use the rain but rather not have it on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 tomorrow might be the only day this week that doesn't break 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 The stream interaction could be the difference between .5-1" of rain and 3"+ rain along with strong winds. If this is like the winter pattern than expect the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 If the streams stay separated, it's likely a quick frontal passage and shot of rain, to more dryness. If we see a phase, we likely will see a cutoff and stalling low, and copious amounts of rain with a connection to the tropics. Some places could get several inches of rain under such a setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 CoastalWx just posted in the New England forum that the northern and southern streams look like they want to phase on the Euro ensembles. If the streams stay separated, it's likely a quick frontal passage and shot of rain, to more dryness. If we see a phase, we likely will see a cutoff and stalling low, and copious amounts of rain with a connection to the tropics. Some places could get several inches of rain under such a setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Doubt we see a phase, happy weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 the op runs have been showing different solutions each day... it's noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 12z euro ensembles are not nearly as impressive as last night's ensembles. They still show 1.50"-2.00" of rain areawide but the low pressure is not nearly as consolidated as last night's run meaning there are many members that miss the phase or are very strung out. Mean track of the low is still hugging the coast like last night, but more strung out and not as consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 12z euro ensembles are not nearly as impressive as last night's ensembles. They still show 1.50"-2.00" of rain areawide but the low pressure is not nearly as consolidated as last night's run meaning there are many members that miss the phase or are very strung out. Mean track of the low is still hugging the coast like last night, but more strung out and not as consolidated. Not a good sign then given we are still 4 days out, could keep trending unphased and less consolidated but we'll see. Ensembles are probably the best way to go than the OPs due to their run to run inconsistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Not a good sign then given we are still 4 days out, could keep trending unphased and less consolidated but we'll see. Ensembles are probably the best way to go than the OPs due to their run to run inconsistency. I still think the chance of .50"-1"+ of rain is moderate. Just from the southern jet interraction with the front. But to get a big time rain maker, we need phasing of the northern and southern stream. Even if the low doesnt close off, the phasing alone will give us a nice rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Not happy about the rain this weekend at all. Was unreal past 2 days and then rain this weekend...and you are all happy? I dont get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Not happy about the rain this weekend at all. Was unreal past 2 days and then rain this weekend...and you are all happy? I dont get it. This is why: [image]http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_northeast.htm[/image] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 if todays low of 67 stands up it will be the ninth highest minimum April morning...it seems like NYC has a day with a minimum in the top five warmest once a week since early last year... min temp...date... 76 4/18/2002 74 4/17/2002 70 4/18/1976 69 4/19/2002 69 4/28/1990 69 4/28/2009 68 4/09/1991 68 4/19/1976 67 4/17/2012 67 4/15/1941 67 4/26/2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 If its not a powerful noreaster with 40+ knot winds and 3"+ of rain, then I'd rather not have it either. New moon tides as well this weekend. A .50"-1" system spread over 2 days won't do anything but ruin the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 If its not a powerful noreaster with 40+ knot winds and 3"+ of rain, then I'd rather not have it either. New moon tides as well this weekend. A .50"-1" system spread over 2 days won't do anything but ruin the weekend. Agreed! I spend all week inside, would be nice to spend the weekend outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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