Isotherm Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Could it also come even further west and we miss out on the heavy rains. The Western ridge axis as progged - CO/MT - is not favorable for the sfc storm to come much further west than depicted right now on modelling. Also, given the progressive nature of this pattern (very little upstream blocking), I don't see this cutting west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 The Western ridge axis as progged - CO/MT - is not favorable for the sfc storm to come much further west than depicted right now on modelling. Also, given the progressive nature of this pattern (very little upstream blocking), I don't see this cutting west of the apps. It also teleconnects well to the major trough along the Western US coast, which at this time of year (due to shorter wavelengths) is conducive for a deepening low in the SE/E coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 The Western ridge axis as progged - CO/MT - is not favorable for the sfc storm to come much further west than depicted right now on modelling. Also, given the progressive nature of this pattern (very little upstream blocking), I don't see this cutting west of the apps. Yeah, without blocking, I'm more afraid, this winds up too far east or unphased, rather than too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Yeah, without blocking, I'm more afraid, this winds up too far east or unphased, rather than too far west. the 18z gfs has exactly what you just said, just a few passing showers with the unphased solution. Oh well edit: we still get a decent amount of rain this run, but if this is any indication of a trend it will likely go drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 We still get nearly 1.5" on the gfs but I believe that's from a weak slow moving low near us that might have been enhanced all the way down to a wide open gulf. It's a very potent looking system though down south and would likely be a very powerful and potent storm if it phases and comes up the coast. In the winter, I'm sure we'd all be pretty hyped about this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Really cooled down with a temp of 64 looks good for sleep tonight with temps in the upper 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Nice gradient on the NJ shore -- upper 50s to low 80s in a matter of 3-5 miles. Still 80F here in Villanova PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Got up to 91F here in New Brunswick today! Pretty nuts (but awesome). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 the 18z gfs has exactly what you just said, just a few passing showers with the unphased solution. Oh well edit: we still get a decent amount of rain this run, but if this is any indication of a trend it will likely go drier Kinda surprised we don't have any drought watches yet. If this storm doesn't pan out it looks like we're in fairly dire straits until the end of this month at least. Thereafter, it's more likely we get fronts and T-storms than organized rain events as we transition towards summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I made it up to 82, not bad at all. Nearby small weather stations are reporting similar highs in the 79-82 range. I'm actually surprised JFK only managed 75. I'm used to being a couple of degrees warmer during the warm months but a 7 degree difference within 10-15 blocks is a lot....unless measurements are taken directly on Jamaica Bay. In the winter I'm usually spot on with JFK with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I made it up to 82, not bad at all. Nearby small weather stations are reporting similar highs (79-82). I'm actually surprised JFK only managed 75. I'm used to being a couple of degrees warmer during the warm months but a 7 degree difference within 10-15 blocks is a lot....unless measurements are taken directly on Jamaica Bay. Huge differences within just a mile or two today. I don't think Long Beach made it to 70 today, and as I expected, it was much colder here than it was in Midtown all day. I could tell there was some relief around 3-4pm as Manhattan might have had some marine influence, but overall it was likely at least 15-20 degrees colder here than there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I made it up to 82, not bad at all. Nearby small weather stations are reporting similar highs in the 79-82 range. I'm actually surprised JFK only managed 75. I'm used to being a couple of degrees warmer during the warm months but a 7 degree difference within 10-15 blocks is a lot....unless measurements are taken directly on Jamaica Bay. In the winter I'm usually spot on with JFK with everything. I hit 78 very very briefly today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Huge differences within just a mile or two today. I don't think Long Beach made it to 70 today, and as I expected, it was much colder here than it was in Midtown all day. I could tell there was some relief around 3-4pm as Manhattan might have had some marine influence, but overall it was likely at least 15-20 degrees colder here than there. Cool gradient also out in NW suffolk...where there usually is...Melville right at LIE hit only 72, yet Huntington only 3 miles north hit 87...usually happens though, the elevation increases about 100-150 feet right north of melville so i think the seabreeze kinda dies out. Just a theory though, but that 3 miles makes a huge difference summer and winter as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Climbing back towards 80F in the city. You can feel it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Not too shabby for April: DCA: 89 BWI: 90 PHL: 89 NYC: 88 BOS: 87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Not to shabby for April: DCA: 89 BWI: 90 PHL: 89 NYC: 88 BOS: 87 Or July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Or July. Definitely a July night out there, with a bit lower humidity (77/55 in the park). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 It may be just my thermometer but are temperatures rising a little? Apparently my temperature went up around 1-2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 It's still in the upper 70s here. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 wow... pretty wild temperature action last night.. temp bottomed out at 64 and then spiked 7 degrees between 4-5 AM this morning.. must have coincided with the frontal passage and maybe we mixed out somehow or there was some downsloping... i wasn't expecting to wake up with temps over 70 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Nice spike in temps from 60 last night to 70 this morning with the cf passage switching the winds to offshore here at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Euro shifts rain east of us...and gfs shift east....expect a nice weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Euro shifts rain east of us...and gfs shift east....expect a nice weekend Good hate rain on the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 wow if we miss another rainstorm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Euro shifts rain east of us...and gfs shift east....expect a nice weekend GFS still gives between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain to everyone east of Harrisburg, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 wow if we miss another rainstorm... Seriously- we're going to pay for this nice weather at some point... I really hope that we don't have a lousy summer... Absent a career in teaching though, most working people only have 2 days per week to enjoy outside.. Thus all I really care about are the weekends from May till Early September... But yea, i'd rather get a few rainstorms now, even on the weekends and have a decent summer instead of a rainy summer... Also, if we don't get our rain now and if it does stay this dry- it's going to be a rather Brown summer... (if the rain never comes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 One good thing can come out of all this dryness - a decrease in the mosquito population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 6z gfs and dgex still show good rains for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 The problem is that it's a strung out looking system rather than a compact storm, which means the heavier rains will be a smaller pockets along with lighter rains and showers. Also it could trend drier if it continues to be more strung out and disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 The euro still has the storm and close to .75" of rain and a lot more for LI. This is normal model waffling until we approach closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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