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April outlook - will the warmth continue?


Isotherm

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Euro has also advertised the past couple months these fantasy storms a week in advance - doubt very much if it will be wound up like it is showing below doesn't fit the pattern we are in.....

Euro continues to have a fairly strong storm for Sunday into Monday.

12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif

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Euro has also advertised the past couple months these fantasy storms a week in advance - doubt very much if it will be wound up like it is showing below doesn't fit the pattern we are in.....

This is not a euro thing though. Every model including every ensemble has a large east coast storm during this timeframe.

Its likely there will be a storm. Lets just hope we are on the right side of it and can cash in on heavy rains.

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This is not a euro thing though. Every model including every ensemble has a large east coast storm during this timeframe.

Its likely there will be a storm. Lets just hope we are on the right side of it and can cash in on heavy rains.

rather have light to moderate rains then a heavy rain storm - heavy rain just runs off and is not as beneficial to the grass and plants - plus still think this will be alot less precip as we approach the potential event

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rather have light to moderate rains then a heavy rain storm - heavy rain just runs off and is not as beneficial to the grass and plants - plus still think this will be alot less precip as we approach the potential event

There's a direct tap to the Tropics, and a cutting off low. This will produce some heavy rain amounts for someone, wherever the LLJ sets up.

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If the models are correct, it looks like a nice pressure gradient would set up so it could be very windy as well. Perhaps it'll be the biggest weather event since the October snowstorm.

P.S. it's 94F in East Brunswick, NJ. Feels like straight up July, even if its for one day. Today is actually very impressive for those west of NYC, surprised about EWR though, thought they would easily hit 90F.

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The problem will be the storm track, given we are several days out, it could change instantly by tomorrow. I mean hello, how many times did the models show an event days in advance only to completely change as we got closer. I'm still not buying it.

Right now, it looks like a big rain maker is possible in the Saturday to Tuesday timeframe. Obviously, it can change to nothing or an even bigger event then currently modeled. But the past 4 months of dryness has nothing to do with anything.

When you see the GFS, Euro, GGEM, UKIE all have a very similar solution and then the ensembles agreeing, probability of a storm is raised. Even at 5-6 days out.

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They still have a shot depending on what the winds do over the next hour or so. The SE wind kept them shy of 90 so far.

or not:

NEWARK INTL , NJ 4pm 82 80 39 SE/14 29.92 10 PARTLY SUNNY

If the models are correct, it looks like a nice pressure gradient would set up so it could be very windy as well. Perhaps it'll be the biggest weather event since the October snowstorm.

P.S. it's 94F in East Brunswick, NJ. Feels like straight up July, even if its for one day. Today is actually very impressive for those west of NYC, surprised about EWR though, thought they would easily hit 90F.

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They still have a shot depending on what the winds do over the next hour or so. The SE wind kept them shy of 90 so far.

or not:

NEWARK INTL , NJ 4pm 82 80 39 SE/14 29.92 10 PARTLY SUNNY

Yeah. The sea breeze knocked down the temps for the NYC stations at 4pm:

EWR: 82

LGA: 78

NYC: 78

JFK: 71

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12z euro ensembles sped up the storm to Saturday night into Sunday. Still has a potent storm with over 1.50" of rain.

Good news that its still there. Has been there for at least 5 runs in a row now.

The biggest difference with the op is that instead of cutting off to our west, the storm is more of a coastal on the ensembles and faster.

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Though a great late season snowstorm

Would be most welcome, facts are that this day, an impregnable cinfluence of western LP and eaterrn ridging, has led to this violent contrasts of destruction leading to a violent life wreaking outbreak of sivere weather. U

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This a decent setup for good rains with a firehose type setup/llj tapping into the tropical moisture. You might want the surface low a bit farther east but that's really nitpicking. We'll see if it comes to fruition.

http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f168.gif

I agree. This synoptic set-up, if real (which I think it is) has the potential to put a significant dent in the Northeast drought, maybe indicating the reversal to a pattern w/ more precipitation. Large H5 trough tilting negative with the LLJ as you said, aligned in a SE-NW fashion, is close to ideal for big rains.

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This a decent setup for good rains with a firehose type setup/llj tapping into the tropical moisture. You might want the surface low a bit farther east but that's really nitpicking. We'll see if it comes to fruition.

http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f168.gif

Could it also come even further west and we miss out on the heavy rains.

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