ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Euro continues to have a fairly strong storm for Sunday into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Officially 90F in New Brunswick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Euro has also advertised the past couple months these fantasy storms a week in advance - doubt very much if it will be wound up like it is showing below doesn't fit the pattern we are in..... Euro continues to have a fairly strong storm for Sunday into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Euro has also advertised the past couple months these fantasy storms a week in advance - doubt very much if it will be wound up like it is showing below doesn't fit the pattern we are in..... This is not a euro thing though. Every model including every ensemble has a large east coast storm during this timeframe. Its likely there will be a storm. Lets just hope we are on the right side of it and can cash in on heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 This is not a euro thing though. Every model including every ensemble has a large east coast storm during this timeframe. Its likely there will be a storm. Lets just hope we are on the right side of it and can cash in on heavy rains. rather have light to moderate rains then a heavy rain storm - heavy rain just runs off and is not as beneficial to the grass and plants - plus still think this will be alot less precip as we approach the potential event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 91 here ..winds still southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Seems like many places just inland have hit 90, EWR is stuck at 87 on a SE wind (they topped out at 88 earlier) 91 here ..winds still southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 MMU and TTN are reporting 90. http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTTN.html http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMMU.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 rather have light to moderate rains then a heavy rain storm - heavy rain just runs off and is not as beneficial to the grass and plants - plus still think this will be alot less precip as we approach the potential event There's a direct tap to the Tropics, and a cutting off low. This will produce some heavy rain amounts for someone, wherever the LLJ sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 several 90's and its interesting the warmest location is 93 at Westfield MA http://kamala.cod.ed...1.OKX.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Hit 88 here earlier... se wind has temp down to 84 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 back down to 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 The problem will be the storm track, given we are several days out, it could change instantly by tomorrow. I mean hello, how many times did the models show an event days in advance only to completely change as we got closer. I'm still not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 If the models are correct, it looks like a nice pressure gradient would set up so it could be very windy as well. Perhaps it'll be the biggest weather event since the October snowstorm. P.S. it's 94F in East Brunswick, NJ. Feels like straight up July, even if its for one day. Today is actually very impressive for those west of NYC, surprised about EWR though, thought they would easily hit 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 The problem will be the storm track, given we are several days out, it could change instantly by tomorrow. I mean hello, how many times did the models show an event days in advance only to completely change as we got closer. I'm still not buying it. Right now, it looks like a big rain maker is possible in the Saturday to Tuesday timeframe. Obviously, it can change to nothing or an even bigger event then currently modeled. But the past 4 months of dryness has nothing to do with anything. When you see the GFS, Euro, GGEM, UKIE all have a very similar solution and then the ensembles agreeing, probability of a storm is raised. Even at 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 They still have a shot depending on what the winds do over the next hour or so. The SE wind kept them shy of 90 so far. or not: NEWARK INTL , NJ 4pm 82 80 39 SE/14 29.92 10 PARTLY SUNNY If the models are correct, it looks like a nice pressure gradient would set up so it could be very windy as well. Perhaps it'll be the biggest weather event since the October snowstorm. P.S. it's 94F in East Brunswick, NJ. Feels like straight up July, even if its for one day. Today is actually very impressive for those west of NYC, surprised about EWR though, thought they would easily hit 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 They still have a shot depending on what the winds do over the next hour or so. The SE wind kept them shy of 90 so far. or not: NEWARK INTL , NJ 4pm 82 80 39 SE/14 29.92 10 PARTLY SUNNY Yeah. The sea breeze knocked down the temps for the NYC stations at 4pm: EWR: 82 LGA: 78 NYC: 78 JFK: 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 12z euro ensembles sped up the storm to Saturday night into Sunday. Still has a potent storm with over 1.50" of rain. Good news that its still there. Has been there for at least 5 runs in a row now. The biggest difference with the op is that instead of cutting off to our west, the storm is more of a coastal on the ensembles and faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Trenton just broke their record high for the day, at 91. Caldwell, NJ and Montgomery, NY have reached 90 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I was in the upper 70's here most of the day--wind off water killed any chance for a super torch day, but upton had us pegged pretty well...further north into CT Bradley airport got to 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Nice that it will be warm and sunny all week and rain for the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Nice that it will be warm and sunny all week and rain for the weekend... We need the rain, timing may suck but we do need it, getting too dry out there, more fire weather expected tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Looking at brown grass is depressing enough in July and August but April its even worse We need the rain, timing may suck but we do need it, getting too dry out there, more fire weather expected tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Though a great late season snowstorm Would be most welcome, facts are that this day, an impregnable cinfluence of western LP and eaterrn ridging, has led to this violent contrasts of destruction leading to a violent life wreaking outbreak of sivere weather. U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 This is awesome..feels like mid summer. hell yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 Your leaf out finally showed up trials. 90% of trees are green now here in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 No A/C in the apartment still, apparently they've decided not to turn it on yet. Anyone who enjoys an indoor temp of 80F+ must be half lizard. It sucks (esp for sleeping). High was 88F here in Villanova PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 This a decent setup for good rains with a firehose type setup/llj tapping into the tropical moisture. You might want the surface low a bit farther east but that's really nitpicking. We'll see if it comes to fruition. http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 This a decent setup for good rains with a firehose type setup/llj tapping into the tropical moisture. You might want the surface low a bit farther east but that's really nitpicking. We'll see if it comes to fruition. http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f168.gif I agree. This synoptic set-up, if real (which I think it is) has the potential to put a significant dent in the Northeast drought, maybe indicating the reversal to a pattern w/ more precipitation. Large H5 trough tilting negative with the LLJ as you said, aligned in a SE-NW fashion, is close to ideal for big rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 This a decent setup for good rains with a firehose type setup/llj tapping into the tropical moisture. You might want the surface low a bit farther east but that's really nitpicking. We'll see if it comes to fruition. http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f168.gif Could it also come even further west and we miss out on the heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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