Sundog Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Doubt it. NAM keeps getting warmer. 6z NAM has the 90 degree line very close to LGA and NYC: Take a look at earthlight's post with a NAM run from yesterday. This 6z run actually shows a stronger sea breeze effect and the 90+ contour is focused more in a north-south orientation over New Jersey. Long Island is actually quite a bit cooler than the precious runs. I'm holding out hope that the 12z run comes in even cooler for the areas immediately east of the city, i.e., me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Then so is the euro ensemble and the operational as both drop 2"-3"+ of rain. Almost every member of the gfs ensemble product also has a major east coast storm. I meant in a general sense. It may be right on for this event, but we've seen some pretty wacky solutions from the DGEX in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Take a look at earthlight's post with a NAM run from yesterday. This 6z run actually shows a stronger sea breeze effect and the 90+ contour is focused more in a north-south orientation over New Jersey. Long Island is actually quite a bit cooler than the precious runs. I'm holding out hope that the 12z run comes in even cooler for the areas immediately east of the city, i.e., me. If there's a SSE wind at any point, it could even cool it down through into Midtown. Sometimes the seabreezes get further inland than progged and Manhattan cools off even though models keep it warm. I think near the coast, it will be a strong breeze (25 mph or so possibly, maybe even low stratus coming in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I'm in a believe it when I see it mode with the rain for the weekend because most events over the past several months have failed to materialize or were nowhere near what they were supposed to be. I would think we get some rains, we are more than halfway through the month and the last time it rained (not just sprinkles) was April 1st. One of the longest rain free periods I could remember, 15 days and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 If there's a SSE wind at any point, it could even cool it down through into Midtown. Sometimes the seabreezes get further inland than progged and Manhattan cools off even though models keep it warm. I think near the coast, it will be a strong breeze (25 mph or so possibly, maybe even low stratus coming in). agreed I would have thought uption would be hitting the seabreeze harder, the point forecast for southern queens shows mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 If there's a SSE wind at any point, it could even cool it down through into Midtown. Sometimes the seabreezes get further inland than progged and Manhattan cools off even though models keep it warm. I think near the coast, it will be a strong breeze (25 mph or so possibly, maybe even low stratus coming in). Yes I've noticed that seabreezes, when expected in at least some parts of the area seem to over-perform, at least in this area. We may hit higher high temp here by Little Neck bay than say JFK but I think if the sea breeze develops we'll still cool down. I'll take a brief hit well into the 80's if the breeze saves the day in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 10 am temps: NYC: 71 LGA: 75 EWR: 75 TEB: 73 JFK: 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 PWS showing 80 in parts of mid and uptown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Anywhere west of NYC is going to bake .. you can see the wind direction is locked in SW there. With a seabreeze to the east it only becomes more focal. Newark will probably get into the low 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 NAM has 2pm temp of 74 at LGA. LMAO. LGA is up to 75 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Already up to 79F here in New Brunswick as of 10:40AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I wish those Rutgers maps would give you temp and wind info for the tristate region and not stay strictly within NJ's borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 I wish those Rutgers maps would give you temp and wind info for the tristate region and not stay strictly within NJ's borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Hi res NAM has 88 degrees right over NYC and LGA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Thank you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 79 at Newark at 11am. Incredible. NYC is 76 and LGA is 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 82 in New Brunswick. Lol. I think we have a 75% chance of hitting 90 or above. Downsloping winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 It's funny how normally this type of heat in mid April would be really impressive but because of how hot the past few Aprils have been, it's not all that impressive to me. Even if it hits 90 for one day, it's still not impressive because there were stretches were it was in the mid 90s 3-4 days for the past Aprils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 80.2 @ 11:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 It's funny how normally this type of heat in mid April would be really impressive but because of how hot the past few Aprils have been, it's not all that impressive to me. Even if it hits 90 for one day, it's still not impressive because there were stretches were it was in the mid 90s 3-4 days for the past Aprils. which is why this heat is unlikely to be record breaking...EWR has best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 which is why this heat is unlikely to be record breaking...EWR has best shot. Yup, and this could be the last shot at super warmth this month, I don't see us getting close to 90 in the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 This is awesome..feels like mid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Better get those rains soon, lawns are definitely starting to dry up. Hopefully this weekend we get some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 12pm temps EWR 84 NYC 82 LGA 81 JFK 71 Some other temps in North NJ. Caldwell and Morristown appear to be the hotspots, at the moment. CDW 86 MMU 86 SMQ 85 TEB 84 FWN 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 86 MMU/CDW and 85 SMQ 12pm temps EWR 84 NYC 82 LGA 81 JFK 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Multiple PWSs around Manhattan approaching 90F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 16, 2012 Author Share Posted April 16, 2012 NJ climate site has one station in NE NJ at 89F already. Definitely going to be some 92s-93s for highs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 NJ climate site has one station in NE NJ at 89F already. Definitely going to be some 92s-93s for highs today. It's kind of interesting (in a nerdy way) to watch the one PWS on the upper east side near Hunter College. Every time it records a wind with any easterly component, the temp always drops slightly because I'm assuming it is close enough to the East River to have that effect. Right now it is at 82F (but was up over 83 earlier) with a light SSE wind. However several PWSs in western Queens and Brooklyn are 88-89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 It's already hit 86 in New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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