Sundog Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 drought cancel One possible rain event of less than an inch several days out and its drought cancel time? Did they teach you that at Cornell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 That's if the euro is right though. Euro has been pretty bad the past few months with the medium range. The rest of the models have a drier front with only about .25" of rain with localized higher amounts under the convection but like Forky said yesterday it makes sense for there to be heavier rains with the elongated trough and ULLs. exactly-everytime it has advertised big rains, it has failed...believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 One possible rain event of less than an inch several days out and its drought cancel time? Did they teach you that at Cornell? The American models have .25"-.50" for early Sunday morning as well. The globals have very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The NAM has about .05 The American models have .25"-.50" for early Sunday morning as well. The globals have very little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The NAM has about .05 When I typed that the 12z wasnt out yet. Was going off the 6z which had close to .50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The mid week potential is still several days away and may not end up as something significant to really ease the drought, although hopefully we can still get something decent on Saturday night... NAM has a wave of light-moderate rain (perhaps thunder, I haven't followed this much) on Saturday night followed by some more rain on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I think we're looking at basically nothing over the weekend, and next week's frontal passage should be predominately dry as well. I don't see this drought breaking down in the next couple weeks at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 I think we're looking at basically nothing over the weekend, and next week's frontal passage should be predominately dry as well. I don't see this drought breaking down in the next couple weeks at least. It's been a very persistent pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 It's been a very persistent pattern. The lack of coastal storms over the winter definitely hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 The only good news is that last year was very wet so the soil moisture is still ok but quickly drying up everyday with no rain and the reservoirs are still doing okay, however, all that good news will turn bad if we go another week or two with very little rain. The very warm temperatures coming up this weekend and early next week will help to dry those soils out even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Brush fire in central park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 2nd alarm 5th and 106 large brush fire Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Brush fire in central park WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Really strong smokey smell to the air around Danbury earlier this evening. It was like standing next to a plie of burning leaves. I usually love sunny and warm but would be glad to see an extended rainy spell at this point with these conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rain is pretty much canceled for next week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Rain is pretty much canceled for next week.... Drought cancel cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Fingers crossed at the Euro op and ensembles, at some type of east coast storm around 4/23. Nice negative-tilt to upper-level trough on the ensembles, last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 12z NAM has nearly .50" of rain for tomorrow morning. Most of it falling 3am to 11am. High temp is 77-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Lets hope...the ground is hard as a rock 12z NAM has nearly .50" of rain for tomorrow morning. Most of it falling 3am to 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Drought cancel cancel? Drought back on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The lack of coastal storms over the winter definitely hurt us. True. The tracks have been too far offshore for us to cash in on some much needed precip. The two winters before this one both had strong coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Gfs and Nam now in agreement with a solid .25"-.50" of rain tomorrow morning with locally higher spots under convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 There was a dirt fire by my Shop Rite, nothing major, but I thought it was worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 By the way tonight's rain looks on radar right now, it looks like as if the majority will pass to the south of NYC. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Gfs and Nam now in agreement with a solid .25"-.50" of rain tomorrow morning with locally higher spots under convection. Nam no longer agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Nam no longer agrees. NAM sim radar is handling the current convection very poorly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Nam no longer agrees. Yeah, the NAM really slashed the precipitation totals from where the 12z NAM had them. Most of the city doesn't even get to a tenth of an inch of rain with this system tonight per the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 NAM sim radar is handling the current convection very poorly though. Yeah its a bit off, definitely. Im kind of curious to see how that translates into the overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 Radar looks very poor at the moment for the system tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 15, 2012 Share Posted April 15, 2012 With tonight's rain event becoming less and less likely, when's our next chance of rain? Next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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