Did SPC F up ?

[somethingfunny]

This is from FWD this morning:

/APRIL 3RD TORNADO OUTBREAK/

SURVEY TEAMS WILL BE HEADING OUT EARLY TO ASSESS THE DAMAGE THAT

OCCURRED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY FROM THE TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS. APPROXIMATELY 11-13 AREAS OF DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED

AND WILL BE SURVEYED TODAY AND ON THURSDAY IF NEEDED. IT IS

UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME EXACTLY HOW MANY TORNADOES THERE WERE AND THE

SURVEY TEAMS TODAY WILL BE WORKING TO DETERMINE A MORE CONCRETE

NUMBER. INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEYS WILL BE DISSEMINATED

THROUGHOUT THE DAY THROUGH OUR WEBPAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE AS THE

SURVEY TEAMS INVESTIGATE THE DAMAGE. A MORE COMPLETE WRITE-UP WILL

LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALL EVIDENCE WAS SUGGESTING THE EVENT

WOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS

NORTH TEXAS. IT WAS ANTICIPATED THAT A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS

WOULD FORM AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS PART OF THE REGION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WAS DISCUSSED BUT IT WAS THE MESOSCALE

FEATURES THAT PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHAT ENDED UP BEING AN

OUTBREAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM

STORMS OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ENDED UP BEING A KEY

PLAYER IN ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED

SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER YESTERDAY MORNING AND REACHED THE

INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MANAGED

TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS. AS THESE SUPERCELLS

MOVED NORTH AND CROSSED THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEY ENTERED AN

ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE

WINDS. IT WAS ALSO NOTED BY LOCAL REAL TIME MODELING THAT THE SURFACE

TO 3KM CAPE WAS VERY HIGH IN THE AREAS WHERE THE TORNADOES OCCURRED.

A LINK BETWEEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL CAPE AND TORNADOES HAS BEEN FOUND

IN PREVIOUS RESEARCH. MORE IN DEPTH STUDY AND ANALYSIS WILL LIKELY

BE DONE ON THIS DAY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THIS WAS A GOOD EXAMPLE

OF HOW SMALL MESOSCALE FEATURES CAN QUICKLY CHANGE THE STORM

ENVIRONMENT ON ANY GIVEN DAY WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

UNFORTUNATELY IT IS STILL VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE

MODELS TO RESOLVE THESE SMALL MESOSCALE FEATURES...AND IT IS WHY WE

URGE EVERYONE TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER ON DAYS WHEN SEVERE

WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

[CoastalWx]

Bingo...that's the point I made earlier about storms loving those boundaries and utilizing the helicity. Sometimes mesoscale stuff like that cannot be seen and is more of a nowcast issue.

[mike2010]

This is from FWD this morning:

/APRIL 3RD TORNADO OUTBREAK/

SURVEY TEAMS WILL BE HEADING OUT EARLY TO ASSESS THE DAMAGE THAT

OCCURRED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS YESTERDAY FROM THE TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS. APPROXIMATELY 11-13 AREAS OF DAMAGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED

AND WILL BE SURVEYED TODAY AND ON THURSDAY IF NEEDED. IT IS

UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME EXACTLY HOW MANY TORNADOES THERE WERE AND THE

SURVEY TEAMS TODAY WILL BE WORKING TO DETERMINE A MORE CONCRETE

NUMBER. INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEYS WILL BE DISSEMINATED

THROUGHOUT THE DAY THROUGH OUR WEBPAGE AND FACEBOOK PAGE AS THE

SURVEY TEAMS INVESTIGATE THE DAMAGE. A MORE COMPLETE WRITE-UP WILL

LIKELY NOT BE ISSUED UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING.

AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALL EVIDENCE WAS SUGGESTING THE EVENT

WOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPRING SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS

NORTH TEXAS. IT WAS ANTICIPATED THAT A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS

WOULD FORM AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE EAST ACROSS PART OF THE REGION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WAS DISCUSSED BUT IT WAS THE MESOSCALE

FEATURES THAT PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WHAT ENDED UP BEING AN

OUTBREAK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. IT APPEARS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM

STORMS OVER OKLAHOMA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ENDED UP BEING A KEY

PLAYER IN ENHANCING THE TORNADO THREAT. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED

SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER YESTERDAY MORNING AND REACHED THE

INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BEFORE STALLING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MANAGED

TO FORM AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS. AS THESE SUPERCELLS

MOVED NORTH AND CROSSED THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEY ENTERED AN

ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR DUE TO EASTERLY SURFACE

WINDS. IT WAS ALSO NOTED BY LOCAL REAL TIME MODELING THAT THE SURFACE

TO 3KM CAPE WAS VERY HIGH IN THE AREAS WHERE THE TORNADOES OCCURRED.

A LINK BETWEEN INCREASED LOW LEVEL CAPE AND TORNADOES HAS BEEN FOUND

IN PREVIOUS RESEARCH. MORE IN DEPTH STUDY AND ANALYSIS WILL LIKELY

BE DONE ON THIS DAY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THIS WAS A GOOD EXAMPLE

OF HOW SMALL MESOSCALE FEATURES CAN QUICKLY CHANGE THE STORM

ENVIRONMENT ON ANY GIVEN DAY WHEN SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

UNFORTUNATELY IT IS STILL VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE

MODELS TO RESOLVE THESE SMALL MESOSCALE FEATURES...AND IT IS WHY WE

URGE EVERYONE TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER ON DAYS WHEN SEVERE

WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

Their own wording hints at an 'unexpected' event.

Maybe 10% tornado risk should be included as a Mod risk from now on. why ? because a lot of TV personalities these days are hired for their looks and not their knowledge. They'll quickly glance at the SPC Convective Outlook and see Slight Risk...and be like "ohh no big deal". "few storms here & there"

Just tellin it how it is..

[LocoAko]

Their own wording hints at an 'unexpected' event.

Maybe 10% tornado risk should be included as a Mod risk from now on. why ? because a lot of TV personalities these days are hired for their looks and not their knowledge. They'll quickly glance at the SPC Convective Outlook and see Slight Risk...and be like "ohh no big deal". "few storms here & there"

Just tellin it how it is..

So we should change the SPC criteria (which are objective and not location dependent) for categories because TV mets aren't properly emphasizing the threat? Do you have any proof that local mets in the Dallas area were not dictating the threat to the public?

[Ellinwood]

Their own wording hints at an 'unexpected' event.

Maybe 10% tornado risk should be included as a Mod risk from now on. why ? because a lot of TV personalities these days are hired for their looks and not their knowledge. They'll quickly glance at the SPC Convective Outlook and see Slight Risk...and be like "ohh no big deal". "few storms here & there"

Just tellin it how it is..

You have no idea how it works.

[mike2010]

So we should change the SPC criteria (which are objective and not location dependent) for categories because TV mets aren't properly emphasizing the threat?

A separate bubble indicating increased tornadic threat might work too.

Lets face it, most of the media was caught off-guard during this event. It seems they need the etch-a-sketch drawings to make it a big deal..

[Srain]

It's not like we have been unaware down here of the potential risks. Local media markets have been talking about the severe potential for several days.

A separate bubble indicating increased tornadic threat might work too.

Lets face it, most of the media was caught off-guard during this event. It seems they need the etch-a-sketch drawings to make it a big deal..

What part of the above post do you not understand?

This is from Jeff (HCFCD Pro Met) this morning. It might be worth reading to know the facts and just how events unfolded yesterday before the events and notice that there were no deaths.

April 3, 2012 a memorbale day across north Texas as strong tornadoes move through highly populated urban areas….a low probablity high impact tornado outbreak.

As of this morning only 10-20 people were injured 2 severely with no fatalities which is remarkable given the intensity of the tornadoes in a highly urban area.

3 damage assessement teams will be surveying the damage today to determine the number and intensity of the tornadoes, and a full report will be available later this week.

Event Overview:

While the event was under forecast...the reasoning was that of a slow moving weak outflow boundary. The two storms that popped in the warm sector south of that boundary went tornadic as they crossed the low level shear zone near the boundary where low level winds were backed to the east resulting in good low level shear...we know low level boundaries can really be good tornado producers IF storms generate. Additionally, the storms developed in a small region of strong surface based instability (CAPE) and past outbreaks in TX have shown a tendencies for tornadoes to generate in very high CAPE environments and utilize low level boundary related shear to produce destructive tornadoes (May 1999 Central TX outbreak). The bigger question yesterday morning was...would storms fire off in the warm sector...15Z KCLL special sounding showed a fairly weak cap with visible images showing large breaks in the overcast over the warm sector (south and southwest of DFW)...the first warning sign that things may go bad… and three hours later the first cell generated over Johnson County and quickly went tornadic. The storms generated very close to the south side of the DFW metro area, so there was little time from the point of formation to the point that tornadoes were impacting highly populated areas. The first tornado warning was issued at 1244pm for a spotter indicated tornado near Joshua and 45 minutes later tornadoes were impacting both Arlington and Lancaster.

Warnings:

Once storms generated and went tornadic NWS FWD quickly realized the gravity of the unfolding event and began issuing strongly worded tornado warnings and then upgraded to the highest level of warning: Tornado Emergency statement with descriptive commanding messaging to encourage action (see warning text below). Extensive media coverage by both local and national stations quickly relayed the warning information to the public…additionally social media (facebook, twitter, and text) were highly utilized during the event along with traditional tornado warning sirens. There was significant situational awareness of the tornadoes, where they were located and how strong for much of the outbreak within the urban areas due to the vast amount of both media coverage and public cell phone video which lead many residents to make the right decisions at the proper time. There is little doubt that this saved many lives yesterday as residents quickly realized the danger to them and their immediate area and took proper tornado precautions (Post event studies of the Joplin Tornado last year suggest many residents did not realize the threat to their immediate location and therefore took little or no action).

Aside: While the tornadoes were destructive, they were not the monster mile wide tornadoes that struck Joplin and Alabama last year…(although the Royce City and Forney tornadoes were getting to that point along parts of their paths likely rating into the EF 4 range at some points). Had these tornadoes been slightly stronger even proper tornado precautions may not have been enough to prevent large amounts of injuries and fatalities…the fear of a large catastrophic tornado going through a highly urban area…there will be extreme damage and large loss of life/injuries as some tornadoes are not survivable.

NWS Warning Text:

Arlington Tornado Warning:

125 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... EASTERN TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRMED A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KENNEDALE...MOVINGNORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. ARLINGTON IS IN THE DIRECT PATH OF THISTORNADO! IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVERIMMEDIATELY! THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TARRANTCOUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF ARLINGTON. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... PANTEGO...DALWORTHINGTON GARDENS AND ARLINGTON AROUND 135 PM CDT... HALTOM CITY AROUND 140 PM CDT... GRAND PRAIRIE AND RICHLAND HILLS AROUND 145 PM CDT... HURST...NORTH RICHLAND HILLS AND WATAUGA AROUND 150 PM CDT... BEDFORD AROUND 155 PM CDT... THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 44 AND 70...I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 430 AND 445...I-30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 26...I-820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 35. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO HASBEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVEUNDERGROUND OR TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

Lancaster Tornado Warning: 126 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 215 PM CDT * AT 125 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRMED A LARGE AND DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR HUTCHINS...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION...SEEK SHELTER NOW!! THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR DALLAS AND HUTCHINS! SEEK SHELTERNOW! * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... DALLAS AROUND 145 PM CDT... SUNNYVALE AROUND 155 PM CDT... GARLAND AND BUCKINGHAM AROUND 205 PM CDT... ROWLETT AND RICHARDSON AROUND 210 PM CDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A LARGE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY TORNADO HASBEEN CONFIRMED. TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...TAKE COVER NOW! MOVEUNDERGROUND OR TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDYBUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS

[SmokeEater]

A separate bubble indicating increased tornadic threat might work too.

Lets face it, most of the media was caught off-guard during this event. It seems they need the etch-a-sketch drawings to make it a big deal..

The media down there was not caught off guard, severe weather, with isolated tornadoes had been in the forecast for days. If you need proof, ask David Reimer from the board, who lives in the Metroplex, he also chased this event. Also, there were only 18 tornado reports, nowhere near Moderate Risk criteria. I don't get why you are complaining so much, it's telling how good the job SPC and the local office did, 2 tornadic supercells dropping tornadoes through the heart of the Metroplex, and not one death. And that's in spite of the dumbass people videoing with the tornadoes in their backyards just about.

[mappy]

The media down there was not caught off guard, severe weather, with isolated tornadoes had been in the forecast for days. If you need proof, ask David Reimer from the board, who lives in the Metroplex, he also chased this event. Also, there were only 18 tornado reports, nowhere near Moderate Risk criteria. I don't get why you are complaining so much, it's telling how good the job SPC and the local office did, 2 tornadic supercells dropping tornadoes through the heart of the Metroplex, and not one death. And that's in spite of the dumbass people videoing with the tornadoes in their backyards just about.

Everyone knows everything

[somethingfunny]

Their own wording hints at an 'unexpected' event.

Maybe 10% tornado risk should be included as a Mod risk from now on. why ? because a lot of TV personalities these days are hired for their looks and not their knowledge. They'll quickly glance at the SPC Convective Outlook and see Slight Risk...and be like "ohh no big deal". "few storms here & there"

Just tellin it how it is..

The 1625z outlook was the first I saw of the enhanced tornado risk here, about 80 minutes before the first tornado warning was issued. This was a poorly forecasted event, but it was sparked by outflow boundaries off of two storm complexes that died out the night before to the east and to the west of DFW. Without those storm complexes evolving in exactly the way that they did, today's event would have been a marginally severe squall line. There was no way to know that a more significant tornado risk existed until only a few hours before the event unfolded - and once the sunshine broke through in the target area, they did upgrade the STS Watch to a Tornado Watch.

What would be the point of upgrading the SLGT to a MDT after the morning news shows have ended and everybody's gone to work? I don't know why people ask for upgrades to MDT after an event has already begun. Once there's a tornado on the ground, forecasting ends and nowcasting becomes pre-eminent. The nowcasting was fantastic, by the way.

It doesn't matter if you change a 10% tornado risk to mean Moderate Risk because there was no 10% tornado risk until 11:30AM.

Furthermore, we had a Moderate Risk that busted BADLY a few weeks ago. The SPC risk map isn't an end-all to end all. We hire pretty decent TV meteorologists here in DFW who actually have technical conversations with the NWS about the more intricate points of the forecasts; it isn't Pennsylvania or Los Angeles.

edit:

The media down there was not caught off guard, severe weather, with isolated tornadoes had been in the forecast for days. If you need proof, ask David Reimer from the board, who lives in the Metroplex, he also chased this event. Also, there were only 18 tornado reports, nowhere near Moderate Risk criteria. I don't get why you are complaining so much, it's telling how good the job SPC and the local office did, 2 tornadic supercells dropping tornadoes through the heart of the Metroplex, and not one death. And that's in spite of the dumbass people videoing with the tornadoes in their backyards just about.

^This!

[Ed Lizard]

SPC probably doesn't have time to do fine scale analysis of micro features. That said, it became obvious by 11 am there was a boundary in the Metroplex, with a wind shift from East to the North to South to the South, with a slight rise in both temperature and dewpoint temps South of it. Enough for me to e-mail my sister and tell her to have our Mom put the car in the garage. Of course, by then there was ping pong hail in Palo Pinto county, so it wasn't going way out on a limb.

> Sent: Tuesday, April 03, 2012 11:00 AM

> To: B, Kathy (GE Capital); 'Rob B'; 'ann g';

> 'Elvira at_school M'; ' <mailto:Elvira_M>

> Elvira_M'; 'Andrew M'; 'Charyl M';

> <mailto:band@> band@; 'Sandy T'; 'Ed

> M'

> Subject: RE: Not quite surface based- yet

> Importance: High

>

>

>

> Obviously, with the lifted parcel level for convection

> around DFW now below

> 500 meters per SPC HRRR model analysis, the storms to your

> West are almost

> surface based. Wind shift last hour from East to

> Southeast at FTW and DFW

> with a slight rise in temp and dewpoint suggests a warm

> front like feature,

> so maybe a little added low level helicity, which seems

> missing from the 7

> am CDT Fort Worth balloon release. Note even elevated

> storms may be

> producing quarter sized hail. Palo Pinto County law

> enforcement confirming

> “ping pong” sized hail. Call Mom and have her move

> car inside before lunch.

[WEATHER53]

I realize experts, mets and people on here have a standard by which they assess a 10% risk but if these statements are to be useful to the public then they need to be re-worked because the public interprets 10% as meaning "highly unlikely to occur"

[SmokeEater]

I realize experts, mets and people on here have a standard by which they assess a 10% risk but if these statements are to be useful to the public then they need to be re-worked because the public interprets 10% as meaning "highly unlikely to occur"

Honestly, the general public doesn't hear or see the 10% part. The only thing I could possibly see changing is slight, to call it a standard risk of severe wx. I don't care if SPC put out a high risk yesterday, with a 90% chance of strong tornadoes, you will still have people saying they had no warning at all, and the media taking it and running with it. Again, it's hugely telling that there were no deaths yesterday.

[CoastalWx]

I realize experts, mets and people on here have a standard by which they assess a 10% risk but if these statements are to be useful to the public then they need to be re-worked because the public interprets 10% as meaning "highly unlikely to occur"

The general public doesn't understand the probability aspect of it. However, I also think most of the general public does not log onto the SPC site everyday and try to interpret what Slight risk means, so it's up to the Mets (whether it be OCM or NWS) to dissect and relay the possibility of severe. I don't have an issue with how the system works right now. It's not designed for Joe Schmo to try and figure out what's going on. Obviously more knowledgeable enthusiasts are different..even if not Mets.

[mappy]

Its a shame accuweather didn't start their 25-day forecasts last month, people could have really been given a lot of warning

[IMADreamer]

The general public doesn't understand the probability aspect of it. However, I also think most of the general public does not log onto the SPC site everyday and try to interpret what Slight risk means, so it's up to the Mets (whether it be OCM or NWS) to dissect and relay the possibility of severe. I don't have an issue with how the system works right now. It's not designed for Joe Schmo to try and figure out what's going on. Obviously more knowledgeable enthusiasts are different..even if not Mets.

I think this is the important thing to realize. The SPC props, while available to the general public aren't really meant for the general public. I'd venture to guess there is only a small part of the population that has ever been to the SPC site and almost all of them are Mets are enthusiasts.

[knitwx]

You've got to be kidding right? SPC handled this one just fine.

I thought a moderate risk was only issued if all or part of the models indicated a potential for at least a couple violent tornadoes.

I'm not a meteorologist. I was taught what I know by a degreed meteorologist, however. Am I correct?

[weatherwiz]

Their own wording hints at an 'unexpected' event.

Maybe 10% tornado risk should be included as a Mod risk from now on. why ? because a lot of TV personalities these days are hired for their looks and not their knowledge. They'll quickly glance at the SPC Convective Outlook and see Slight Risk...and be like "ohh no big deal". "few storms here & there"

Just tellin it how it is..

A separate bubble indicating increased tornadic threat might work too.

Lets face it, most of the media was caught off-guard during this event. It seems they need the etch-a-sketch drawings to make it a big deal..

What in God's name are you talking about?

As Ellinwood stated, you have no clue what you're talking about. If you think other meteorologists just "glance" at the SPC graphics you're highly mistaken...there is a discussion below the maps which usually goes into great detail.

If you actually go back and read the discussions for each outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getac1.pl you will see they went into tremendous detail. With the morning outlook they stated at that time it wasn't completely clear as to what the storm mode would be, however, by the afternoon as certain conditions became present and more in the way of heating occurred it became evident there would be supercells and an increased risk for tornadoes in a small area...the SPC nailed that area perfectly.

This was a localized but intense tornado outbreak.

When it comes to forecasting microscale features it's highly unlikely anyone is going to have a solid idea of how anything will setup until that morning or several hours before the onset.

[mike2010]

I realize experts, mets and people on here have a standard by which they assess a 10% risk but if these statements are to be useful to the public then they need to be re-worked because the public interprets 10% as meaning "highly unlikely to occur"

Thank youuuuuuuuuu..

These boards could use a "Like" or "Thanks" mod.

[weatherwiz]

I thought a moderate risk was only issued if all or part of the models indicated a potential for at least a couple violent tornadoes.

I'm not a meteorologist. I was taught what I know by a degreed meteorologist, however. Am I correct?

A moderate risk doesn't only have to include tornadoes...one can be issued if a certain number of 65+ kt wind reports or 2''+ hail reports are expected.

[weatherwiz]

Thank youuuuuuuuuu..

These boards could use a "Like" or "Thanks" mod.

Those outlooks are not necessarily meant for the general public but more for meteorologists. At least around these parts you generally don't see TV mets use SPC graphics, although they do mention the risk outlooks...they will usually explain what they say in different wording.

[Hoosier]

A moderate risk doesn't only have to include tornadoes...one can be issued if a certain number of 65+ kt wind reports or 2''+ hail reports are expected.

Slight correction - day 1 moderate risks are often accompanied by hatching but they don't have to be.

[weatherwiz]

Slight correction - day 1 moderate risks are often accompanied by hatching but they don't have to be.

Yes.

I forgot to mention the hatching as well.

[Ellinwood]

Posting this for people who haven't seen it... the technical breakdown of what percentages constitute the different category thresholds: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html

[knitwx]

Thanks for the information. I am trying to learn everything that I can.

[Cory]

Most of the public doesn't use or understand the percentage risks the SPC issues--I imagine the majority of everyday people have no idea those percentages exist. What matters are whether watches and warnings were issued--those are what people know, and those exist specifically to alert the public. Whether a slight risk or 10% outline was adequate has nothing to do with it.

[JamieOber]

Most of the public doesn't use or understand the percentage risks the SPC issues--I imagine the majority of everyday people have no idea those percentages exist. What matters are whether watches and warnings were issued--those are what people know, and those exist specifically to alert the public. Whether a slight risk or 10% outline was adequate has nothing to do with it.

I don't think they should even include that slight risk language in the hazardous weather outlook that the public can see in their point and click forecast. I've noticed our local mets, if they mention the SPC outlook, will not say the word "slight" but instead say only "risk". Smart move.

That said, the watch they put out, along with the local media, gave people enough warning. I don't think the SPC messed this up.

[mike2010]

Those outlooks are not necessarily meant for the general public but more for meteorologists.

duhh, but it's how it gets relayed to the public which is more important. The Media only catches on whenever Mod or High risks are issued.

18 reported tornadoes in a day within a 200 mile radius is more than a Slight Risk.

[weatherwiz]

duhh, but it's how it gets relayed to the public which is more important. The Media only catches on whenever Mod or High risks are issued.

18 reported tornadoes in a day within a 200 mile radius is more than a Slight Risk.

Says who, you?

You obviously have zero understanding of what the risk categories mean.

[hurricaneman]

This was not an f-up, an f-up would be issuing a see text and having a major tornado outbreak, this is just a slight underestimation of the peramaters that ended up with a couple more tornados than expected