mike2010 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Wow, major tornado outbreak in the Dallas area...and only a slight risk the entire time. Should a Mod Risk of been issued today ? hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 My cousin says he saw tractor trailers being sucked up about 100' off the ground and then thrown 2 or so blocks further away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 There's been a 10% tornado contour since this morning. Have been unfortunate today with tornadoes targeting populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 No they did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 There's been a 10% tornado contour since this morning. Still slight risk though. I guess if the tornadoes struck in a more rural, open area...it never would of made news anyway right ? Not that i'm here to bash, as most of the time their on-point. But today seemed like somebody was somewhat asleep at the wheel. EDIT: hoosier, we must of edit'd at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Still slight risk though. Not that i'm here to bash, as most of the time their on-point. But today seemed like somebody was asleep at the wheel. See my edit. I think it maybe seems bigger than what it is because of where these tornadoes have hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 Still in a general sense, I don't think many were expecting an outbreak like this. A Mod Risk would of got more attention on the morning news, to alert folks. I guess we'll have to wait till day's end to see how many more tornadoes, and if indeed a Mod Risk should of indeed been warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Well, one thing that was surprising is that the 0-1 km helicity wasn't that strong, <= 150 m^s/s^s. Usually, you don't get outbreaks with shear that weak. It'll be interesting to find out what ingredients went into this outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Still in a general sense, I don't think many were expecting an outbreak like this. A Mod Risk would of got more attention on the morning news, to alert folks. I guess we'll have to wait till day's end to see how many more tornadoes, and if indeed a Mod Risk should of indeed been warranted. It's not like we have been unaware down here of the potential risks. Local media markets have been talking about the severe potential for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Well, one thing that was surprising is that the 0-1 km helicity wasn't that strong, <= 150 m^s/s^s. Usually, you don't get outbreaks with shear that weak. It'll be interesting to find out what ingredients went into this outbreak. Pretty strong winds aloft from the SW, Big ML CAPE and a boundary to locally enhance shear. That's your recipe. These storms love boundaries...they eat up the local helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beneficii Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Pretty strong winds aloft from the SW, Big ML CAPE and a boundary to locally enhance shear. That's your recipe. These storms love boundaries...they eat up the local helicity. Just goes to show that the local environment can surprise you.and why you should always keep an eye on any severe weather threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 See my edit. I think it maybe seems bigger than what it is because of where these tornadoes have hit. Which leads to this question: should warnings be tiered by the possible human/property toll? A slight risk in the panhandle is one thing. A slight risk in DFW with 7 MM people is another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 You've got to be kidding right? SPC handled this one just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 It's not like we have been unaware down here of the potential risks. Local media markets have been talking about the severe potential for several days. I didn't really look at the setup myself but based on what I've been reading, today didn't seem like one of those days where you look at the maps and just know there will be trouble. Seems like it was mainly dependent on outflow boundaries which are difficult to pinpoint way ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Yeah I've seen an F-4 before with similar forecast outlooks. Sometimes Mother Nature overachieves. Seems like only rogue cell though today spinning, not a true multi-storm outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Yeah I've seen an F-4 before with similar forecast outlooks. Sometimes Mother Nature overachieves. Seems like only rogue cell though today spinning, not a true multi-storm outbreak There have been at least three tornado-producing supercells in the DFW area today, along with others to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 SPC did not "f up", they issued a 10% tornado contour with the morning outlook, watches and warnings were issued with ample warning. This really wasn't a HUGE outbreak, just a couple of big supercells that went through the worst possible area, doing a lot of damage. Other then those 2 supercells, I think there's only been 1 or 2 other cells that have actually produced tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 There have been at least three tornado-producing supercells in the DFW area today, along with others to the northeast. I think just 4 total my bad. But it overall was very localized, not spread out across the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 No SPC didn't F up however they probably could have upgraded at 2000Z outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 They were definitly to conservative today. What distinguishes a F*up from an underestimate is subjective judgement each person makes for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 I'm not so sure they would have said MDT risk given the parameters on models earlier today. If this occurred in central Nebraska, this thread would have never been started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 The SPC, and pretty much anything to do with the NWS issues forecasts, warnings, and watches based on scientific data. Population density usually doesn't play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 You've got to be kidding right? SPC handled this one just fine. SPC did not "f up", they issued a 10% tornado contour with the morning outlook, watches and warnings were issued with ample warning. This really wasn't a HUGE outbreak, just a couple of big supercells that went through the worst possible area, doing a lot of damage. Other then those 2 supercells, I think there's only been 1 or 2 other cells that have actually produced tornadoes. No SPC didn't F up however they probably could have upgraded at 2000Z outlook. I'm not so sure they would have said MDT risk given the parameters on models earlier today. These. I usually like to be critical of the SPC, but given the tools at hand and morning atmospheric conditions I think they did a pretty good job. Yeah, they could have upgraded to a Moderate Risk at 20z, but the area that it would have been needed for was fairly small, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 No they didn't. Could they have issued or upgraded...sure but that's insignificant...watches were out well ahead of time and people were informed. This is where having a great understanding of what each categorical risk means comes into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 This always happens ... the SPC is questioned when a major city is affected by a tornado. If this same situation was in the middle of a field, no big deal, but since the tornado is on TWC, then it should have been a 60% hatched high risk. The SPC actually nailed the tornado risk area with the 10% area in NE Texas. Otherwise the parameters today definitely did not support a moderate risk, and as far as I see, the "high-end" slight risk verified perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 This always happens ... the SPC is questioned when a major city is affected by a tornado. If this same situation was in the middle of a field, no big deal, but since the tornado is on TWC, then it should have been a 60% hatched high risk. The SPC actually nailed the tornado risk area with the 10% area in NE Texas. Otherwise the parameters today definitely did not support a moderate risk, and as far as I see, the "high-end" slight risk verified perfectly. Beautifully stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 How could they have done better? They had watches up, local media was well informed and, this was kind of a perfect set up with boundaries helping the 3 or so supercells spin up. The spc did just fine, the twisters that hit in and around Dallas were the result of the perfect set up for today, and that is why a tornado watch was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 The SPC did a great job in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 This always happens ... the SPC is questioned when a major city is affected by a tornado. If this same situation was in the middle of a field, no big deal, but since the tornado is on TWC, then it should have been a 60% hatched high risk. The SPC actually nailed the tornado risk area with the 10% area in NE Texas. Otherwise the parameters today definitely did not support a moderate risk, and as far as I see, the "high-end" slight risk verified perfectly. Well said, looks pretty darn good for the 1630z outlook. People have to remember that the SPC works in probabilities, and not in relative threats based on population. A moderate risk requires any of 15% tornado, 45% wind, or 45% hail chance within 25 miles of a point. SPC went high end slight, with a tornado risk that is at least 10 times climatology for any given day (a significant threat). This threat relative to climatology is going to be roughly the same whether the storms are occurring over Dalhart or Dallas. Based on reports from today, wind and hail were not widespread enough for a moderate, and the tornado risk was confined to a very localized area near a frontal/outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 The 1625z outlook was the first I saw of the enhanced tornado risk here, about 80 minutes before the first tornado warning was issued. This was a poorly forecasted event, but it was sparked by outflow boundaries off of two storm complexes that died out the night before to the east and to the west of DFW. Without those storm complexes evolving in exactly the way that they did, today's event would have been a marginally severe squall line. There was no way to know that a more significant tornado risk existed until only a few hours before the event unfolded - and once the sunshine broke through in the target area, they did upgrade the STS Watch to a Tornado Watch. What would be the point of upgrading the SLGT to a MDT after the morning news shows have ended and everybody's gone to work? I don't know why people ask for upgrades to MDT after an event has already begun. Once there's a tornado on the ground, forecasting ends and nowcasting becomes pre-eminent. The nowcasting was fantastic, by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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