Tropopause_Fold Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 what a snoozer of a pattern. not even any temperature extremes to debate. it's getting down to nothing but guess the RH%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Clearly the pattern has gotten to Tip. Fellow poster Martin , good dude, bought the site and database so WE could all use the historical database. The guys here that Mod and admin do it for free and do a damn good job. Are there wrongs, absolutely, are there quirky mods, absolutely, sometimes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 How could gthe pattern get to anyone, its spring, its April, the weather is doing exactly what its supposed to LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 Looks like Saturday and Sunday are both 70-73 for highs ..A beautiful Easter weekend upcoming. Take off those bonnets Sunday and get some sun to warm your napes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 How could gthe pattern get to anyone, its spring, its April, the weather is doing exactly what its supposed to LOL. Love spring, hate boring weather but it is what it is. I guess after an absolutely frenetic 11 it had to mellow out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Hopefully next week is semi interesting. Otherwise, it's meh temps and meh sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Hopefully next week is semi interesting. Otherwise, it's meh temps and meh sensible wx. The last 5 months as a whole have been a big bore--phantom storms, phantom pattern changes, underperforming cold and QPF. Why change now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 The last 5 months as a whole have been a big bore--phantom storms, phantom pattern changes, underperforming cold and QPF. Why change now? Friday Night was pretty uneventful, but at least it brought out some met disco. The only disco this week, is that Kevin is probaly too warm again on Sunday, but I hope 60s at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Hopefully next week is semi interesting. Otherwise, it's meh temps and meh sensible wx. this is wake-me-up-in-7-days type of weather. -5 to +5 type of days with basically zero precip. at least we can sit and watch the grass get greener. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Eh well... Hey, I was right about one thing - in one way shape or form, money got involved, and that messed it all up, regardless. Actually it had nothing to do with money, but I'll leave it at that. If you search some of the earliest posts here you'll probably find the threads explaining it all.As for the boringness...I'll take sunny boring over northeasterly, raw, 40s, drizzle-laden boring anyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 As for the boringness...I'll take sunny boring over northeasterly, raw, 40s, drizzle-laden boring anyday. We should still be getting snow in NNE elevations in April. Wasting this troughing on days of 45-50F temperatures with gusty NW winds is sort of a shame. It's amazing that none of these troughs can pop a real storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Actually it had nothing to do with money, but I'll leave it at that. If you search some of the earliest posts here you'll probably find the threads explaining it all. As for the boringness...I'll take sunny boring over northeasterly, raw, 40s, drizzle-laden boring anyday. yeah can't argue with that. if i had a choice, i'd mix those two up a bit...would equal something slightly less boring. should be a decent freeze in spots tonight. woohoo. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 If I dumped every operational run that's out there into a blender and hit frappe, then poured a glass of it ... this would taste like a variant on typical springtime omega type deal. These can sometimes get amped, with a big ridge poking to nearly 60N in central Canada, with a deep anomaly over us (the wester one near Washington/Oregon). Here, we have these semi-permanent L/W anchored along and off each coast of N/A, with a modest to at time moderately strong ridge anomally sandwhich in between. In fact, mind's eye going back some days worth of runs, this has more than less been the blend. For those that don't know, Omega is just what it says, flows that look like " W "'s, only with rounded inflection points. Indeed, in this sort of regime, not much exciting can happen. I think Scott discussed this at length earlier in this thread, "Booooooorrrrrrrinnnnnnng" The primary storm tracks are east of the Gulf Stream, and up the High Plains, ...dumping vestigial cyclonic dynamics into the top of the ridge, so they can then roll on down sweeping fun stopping cold over the NE. Storms out at sea then use this CAA in their backsides. That's the basic mean. Last night's desperately needed rain is the exception to what otherwise would tend to be a dry, eventless regime. We are not going to register meaningful positive anomalies until this breaks down. Re the emerging "drought" - may be too early to call it that, but U.S. monitoring has us in moderate condition in March. I was brain storming this notion that more than just seems to verify, "dry begets dry." I think I have come up with a simple sort of explanation why that seems to be the case. Suppose you are in a -3SD seasonal moisture anomaly - perhaps upper tier moderate in magnitude. That might just mean that your region requires at a minimum at +3SD event to compenssate. When also factoring in local hydrological studies, hence the "at a minimum" as a requirement. For most intents and purposes, the assumption here is a linear relationship, though. If there is any truth to that, now ask the question: How often does a region wide basin receive a +3SD precipitation event? Ah, interesting question. The answer is, rarely, and suddenly, dry seems to be begetting dry doesn't it? Here's what I'm thinking: It's easier by shear statistical probability (perhaps) to bust a region out of a -1SD moisture anomaly, by the occurrence of a +1SD event - they happen all the time (relative to a regions native climatology, that is). Therefore, if a region is in a -8SD moisture starvation scenario, that would require one helluva story for the grand kids event to correct it all at once. The alternative would intuitively be to have multiple +2SD type events, but not have then spread out so far temporally that what you gain, you lose to evaporation and/or evapotranspiration - which is hugely accelerated when RH is exceptionally low. In the end, it could all just wittle down to a simple numbers game. If randomness gets you into a -3SD moisture funk, the shear odds of getting a corrective +3SD event is comparativley low. So in that sense alone, the "drought" seems to be perpetuating it self. But if this is understood, that is not really happening; the drought is in fact not perpetuating its self, its just that randomness got a region into a -3SD hole, which then becomes considerably longer odds that it will be corrected. But they do, eventually... I think that has to do with "clustering". As hinted above, a region can aggregate a series of events, "denting" of water deficiencies is probably the more common means to get a region out of a drought. If the region is in a -5SD, they are probably never going to see a +5SD unless they are exceedinglly lucky. But, if a some errant dying TC comes along and puts down +2.5SD, the odds then go up considerably in favor of fuller recovering, because the resulting -2.5SD remaining can be met with a +2.5SD event with increased fequency. Some droughts do end with a bang. Those are the ones to remember. I remember when TX was in a sere funk once, and a TC went on in and parked for a foot's worth over a big chunck of real-estate. That must have been something! By and large, though, I suspect aggregating events is the way drought finally come to an end. Having said all that ... can you guys think of a bigger nerd than me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 looks like saturday will probably go down as my last "snow" of 11-12. suppose there's always the chc at a fluke thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Actually it had nothing to do with money, but I'll leave it at that. If you search some of the earliest posts here you'll probably find the threads explaining it all. As for the boringness...I'll take sunny boring over northeasterly, raw, 40s, drizzle-laden boring anyday. eh, I thought you said Marcus sold something ... Anyway, the irony is that I don't really care ? so I prolly won't go looking haha. what a douche, a? Yeah, nothing will beat May of 2005 for utter spiritual spring debacle. That was bar-none unimaginable vile - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Wonder if Boston will ever see a Nor'easter again? LOL. Longest stretch ever? How many sub 980 storms last year 10-14? This year 0. I remember posting about the overabundance of bombs last year, if you look at this years historical maps you can see how everything blew up 250 miles to our East. US FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Having said all that ... can you guys think of a bigger nerd than me? short-term we definitely need some water. i'll be more worried come late may if we are in the same general situation. long-term trends are fine which is good. the 12-month and 36-month departures are still like 100-130% for most of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Wonder if Boston will ever see a Nor'easter again? LOL. Longest stretch ever? How many sub 980 storms last year 10-14? This year 0. I remember posting about the overabundance of bombs last year, if you look at this years historical maps you can see how everything blew up 250 miles to our East. US FTL Indeed... That fits well with native progressive nature to the circulation system overall. "Bombs" typically require phasing. A Miller A bomb is a rare event, really. If a Miller A gets infused with N stream dynamics in route, technically it really becomes a Miller A/B hybrid. January 21-22, 1977, is a good example of a big juicy bunned pure Miller A, ... that never deepened beneath 1002 MBs the whole way up. But, considering its source, man did that sucker bring up a mind boggling PWAT anomaly right into a dome of marginal cold....viola! Boston set a 24 ...well LOGAN set a 24 snow fall record that would ironically get beaten just 2 weeks later by the big guy. This recent cold season months demonstrated spacial-temporal aspects to wave mechanics that were simply deconstructive and unphasing at every turn.. No bombs is no surprise. The fact that it last all winter ...yeah, but I think it sucks more than it is surprising, at least for me. NCEP intimated recently how the MJO was deconstructive against the ENSO for Western Pacific wave spaces. I think observations like that are key in understanding what stopped cyclogenesis over N/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Indeed... That fits well with native progressive nature to the circulation system overall. January 21-22, 1977, is a good example of a big juicy bunned pure Miller A, ... that never deepened beneath 1002 MBs the whole way up. But, considering its source, man did that sucker bring up a mind boggling PWAT anomaly right into a dome of marginal cold....viola! Boston set a 24 ...well LOGAN set a 24 snow fall record that would ironically get beaten just 2 weeks later by the big guy. I think you mean 1978...76-77 was a cold but dry winter for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 looks like saturday will probably go down as my last "snow" of 11-12. suppose there's always the chc at a fluke thing. As bad as it stunk for you too...congrats on doing solidly better than I have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 I think you mean 1978...76-77 was a cold but dry winter for Boston. heh, I was thinking the winter of 1977-1978 and dyslexicated the which side of the new year that was on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Yeah John, boring indeed. Basic thermo principles can sum up our lackluster winter. Jet well to the north = no baroclinicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 this is wake-me-up-in-7-days type of weather. -5 to +5 type of days with basically zero precip. at least we can sit and watch the grass get greener. Easter weekend looks splendid inland..One of those times when you go way above guidance and you're still probably not warm enough. 70+ virtually a lock at BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Easter weekend looks splendid inland..One of those times when you go way above guidance and you're still probably not warm enough. 70+ virtually a lock at BDL That is questionable even for BDL...but possible at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 What a sweet day across New England. Spring-like in the valleys, winter-like in the elevations. Saw a nice snow-nado today... lots of turbulent air and differential heating causing lots of localized thermals. The inch of snow last night was dry powder with temps in the low 20s, and it wanted to blow around. Lots of fresh drifts of surprising size for 1" of new snow. And lots of nice snow "waterfalls" from wind gusts blowing heaps of snow over the cliffs and then watching the snow cascade down the rocks of the Mansfield ridgeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Someone says they have no idea about something then posts 5 detailed paragraphs... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Has there ever been a firestorm in New England ? URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 426 PM EDT MON APR 2 2012 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 What a sweet day across New England. Spring-like in the valleys, winter-like in the elevations. Saw a nice snow-nado today... lots of turbulent air and differential heating causing lots of localized thermals. The inch of snow last night was dry powder with temps in the low 20s, and it wanted to blow around. Lots of fresh drifts of surprising size for 1" of new snow. And lots of nice snow "waterfalls" from wind gusts blowing heaps of snow over the cliffs and then watching the snow cascade down the rocks of the Mansfield ridgeline. Nice images! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 What a sweet day across New England. Spring-like in the valleys, winter-like in the elevations. Saw a nice snow-nado today... lots of turbulent air and differential heating causing lots of localized thermals. The inch of snow last night was dry powder with temps in the low 20s, and it wanted to blow around. Lots of fresh drifts of surprising size for 1" of new snow. And lots of nice snow "waterfalls" from wind gusts blowing heaps of snow over the cliffs and then watching the snow cascade down the rocks of the Mansfield ridgeline. Was there any damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Sun is just pounding relentlessly into the west facing windows right now, nice to have the house at 74 even though the temp is almost 20 cooler outside, free solar heat this time of year with curtains pulled. Just does not get any better for early April tomorrow, sun light winds and low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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