powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Why not? We've had below normal heights the past week or so, and it's been beautiful every day in Westchester. While I agree with you that this weather is nice, Westchester can be much different this time of year than eastern New England under similar atmospheric conditions (same goes for Albany). Lower heights with a high to the north might get NY state sunny days near 60 while BOS sees 47F for days on end. I know you know this Nate but it's like me saying "why does everyone hate a chilly NW flow?" one location it brings desired weather while another not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 lol new Euro is about 90 in SNE on Tuesday the 17th Yeah that would be a good two day torch for SNE..maybe 1 day for ern areas. Hopefully that happens and then maybe the front stalls to give some rain. Looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 lol new Euro is about 90 in SNE on Tuesday the 17th Yeah ...guys... I wouldn't get to caught up in the chill and the fact that there is some rotted cold precipitation elements trying to rotate SW out of that Maritimes low... It can heat up and do so in a hurry at this time of year. The GEFs are still flagging the -PNA/+NAO coupled phases by mid month, and seeing the Euro's operation agree so heavily across multiple cycles, it's hard to refute that possibility. It almost appears to be a repeat of the March 20 type heat, but this time a stronger positive geopotential ridge node, with +588DM heights up to the Del Marva. The MJO is a wild card here. Also, the NAO is pretty positively biased in the outlook, so it is attempting to elevate the phase too fast. But that's not uncommon and usually verifies as a rise, just a timing issue. Interesting seasonal outlook for next Autumn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Yeah that would be a good two day torch for SNE..maybe 1 day for ern areas. Hopefully that happens and then maybe the front stalls to give some rain. Looks possible. what does the accuwx 25day forecast say about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 what does the accuwx 25day forecast say about this? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 While I agree with you that this weather is nice, Westchester can be much different this time of year than eastern New England under similar atmospheric conditions (same goes for Albany). Lower heights with a high to the north might get NY state sunny days near 60 while BOS sees 47F for days on end. I know you know this Nate but it's like me saying "why does everyone hate a chilly NW flow?" one location it brings desired weather while another not so much. I like cool, drizzly days in the spring that lead to an Irish-like landscape. I believe that the weather should be appropriate for the season, and it's not supposed to be 75 and sunny in early April. After months and months of torch, and people complaining constantly about how warm the fall and winter were, I'm not sure why we're all of a sudden in a hurry for summertime. It feels nice to hike and play tennis with a cool breeze, it feels great to have some chilly nights that remind us we're just at the very start of a new season of life, and I personally don't want more heat that will dry the soil out more since it's already so dry...the avid gardener in me says that we need some rain and 50s or we're going to have drought concerns later in the warm season. I do a lot of cool-weather crops like arugula, spinach, and beets early in the season; thus I need the weather to stay cool and wet until these plants mature. I lived on the South Pacific in Chile for a time so I got to enjoy the morose, drizzly weather of the southern Chilean winter. Endless days in the 40s with rain in Valdivia during the cold months, and yet it was gorgeous with the temperature rainforest, Bio-Bio River, and nearby views of the snowcapped Andes with high peaks like Mount Tronador not too far away. I enjoy all types of weather...that's the key to being happy in a temperate climate. If I wanted it to be sunny everyday with highs in the 70s, I'd move to San Diego. But variety is the spice of life. 65.7/33 here in Westchester and gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 MOS is quite mild still for the Tue-Thu period. I shaved 3F-5F off GFS MOS and may still be too high. It definitely as a cool, cloudy, look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Yeah ...guys... I wouldn't get to caught up in the chill and the fact that there is some rotted cold precipitation elements trying to rotate SW out of that Maritimes low... It can heat up and do so in a hurry at this time of year. Point forecast for 2,000ft looks fairly nice for rotted cold precipitation elements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 LOL... this could actually be quite a large upslope event. Localized cooling from forced orographic ascent may bring snow levels down lower pure H85 temps would indicate. At the very least, the summits of Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak are going to get crushed. We'll have to see if Monday night once the sun goes down we can get any appreciable accumulation down here in the 800-1000ft range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 LOL... this could actually be quite a large upslope event. Localized cooling from forced orographic ascent may bring snow levels down lower pure H85 temps would indicate. At the very least, the summits of Mount Mansfield and Jay Peak are going to get crushed. We'll have to see if Monday night once the sun goes down we can get any appreciable accumulation down here in the 800-1000ft range. Does diurnal heating with a high sun angle interfere with upslope bands as it can with lake effect? This definitely looks like a classic signal for VT orographic enhancement with an upper low stalled over Northern Maine/SE Canada, 850s around -4C to -5C Tuesday/Wednesday, and a long-duration period of light precipitation highlighted by global models. I am just wondering how the late-season sun will change the event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 8, 2012 Author Share Posted April 8, 2012 Wish we could FF thru this week and have it be Friday..Next weekend looks awesome with 70's and sun..Couple ugly days this week and we're home free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 enjoy powder freak you bas%A%D lol happy easter i'll take another helping of snow.....ohh wait no one ever got it. (cept the N . greens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 8, 2012 Author Share Posted April 8, 2012 Some quick thoughts... The latest MJO guidance is suggesting that the MJO could move into the low amplitude ranges sometime during the third week in April. This development might indicate a warmer-than-normal second half of April for much of eastern North America. In the first message in this thread, it was noted that 1976 and 2009 were among the leading analogs for April. In that post I stated: Both 1976 and 2009 featured a significant outbreak of heat during the second half of the month (1976 just after mid-April and 2009 in late April). The first half of each of those two cases did feature some colder than normal readings, so some cold shots would appear plausible in eastern North America, especially during the first 1-2 weeks of April. The teleconnection analogs for the April 16-22 timeframe also indicated warmth in the East. The map from Message #86 is below: The latest weekly CFSv2 forecast has now reverted from cold anomalies to warm ones in the East. Below are the April 15-21 and April 22-28 CFSv2 weekly forecasts: In sum, there ensemble support for a warmer-than-normal second half of April in much of eastern North America appears to be growing. Whether or not a period of excessive warmth will take place during the second half of April remains to be seen. Given some of the past analogs and also the recent developments in the long-range ensemble guidance, such a development remains on the proverbial table. Bang the bass..turn up the treble...it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Biddeford ME: Where I spent most of Easter, mid 40s with a few snow showers (one briefly moderate, nice to see). Back home: 53.5/26, beautiful April day. High of 55 back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Kevin will be banging his weenie if we end up with meh temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 These Red Sox are like Wonter 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 These Red Sox are like Wonter 2011-2012 Yeah another great start. Look at the schedule coming up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Happy Easter from the maritimes. Woke up to 6" of wet heavy snow this morning. Enough to have a little fun with it. Hopefully this will be the last of it until next fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Awesome snowbunny, although I prefer the other kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I should be seeing quite a bit of snow this weekend in Park City and then hopefully coming back to SNE mid-week to some nice 70s hopefully. But first, CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO GOOD THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE LATE WED THRU MON TIME FRAME ALTHO THE DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WITH THIS EVENT TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE VALLEYS ALTHO SOME OF THE HIGHER VALLEYS COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATION OFF PAVEMENT SURFACES. MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DECENT ACCUMULATION...ALTHO TRAVEL IMPACT MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT EVEN THERE AS ANY ACCUMULATION ON MTN ROADWAYS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED TO TIMES OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. Can't wait to see my first accumulating snow since 3/3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Does diurnal heating with a high sun angle interfere with upslope bands as it can with lake effect? This definitely looks like a classic signal for VT orographic enhancement with an upper low stalled over Northern Maine/SE Canada, 850s around -4C to -5C Tuesday/Wednesday, and a long-duration period of light precipitation highlighted by global models. I am just wondering how the late-season sun will change the event... That's a really good question... you know I have no idea. I always feel like upslope gets better "organized" at night though for the most part. I'm not sure why that is or even if its true, but its a gut feeling I've gotten from watching these things over the years and experiencing them. You usually get "surprised" overnight with decent accumulations but during the daytime sometimes it seems to struggle with cellular snow showers and squalls...at night you're more likely to find one consolidated band stretching north-south along the Spine. So now that I am thinking/talking about it, I would say there's a good chance the sun has something to do with it. I think strengthening and lowering inversion levels at night has something to do with it... cause as that inversion comes down, the Spine obviously stays the same, so moisture is "squeezed" out much more efficiently or more concentrated (heavier precip rates), if you can call it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I should be seeing quite a bit of snow this weekend in Park City and then hopefully coming back to SNE mid-week to some nice 70s hopefully. But first, CONFIDENCE IS FAIR TO GOOD THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE PRECIP AT SOME POINT DURING THE LATE WED THRU MON TIME FRAME ALTHO THE DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WITH THIS EVENT TO KEEP SNOW OUT OF THE VALLEYS ALTHO SOME OF THE HIGHER VALLEYS COULD PICK UP SOME ACCUMULATION OFF PAVEMENT SURFACES. MOUNTAINS SHOULD PICK UP SOME DECENT ACCUMULATION...ALTHO TRAVEL IMPACT MAY NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT EVEN THERE AS ANY ACCUMULATION ON MTN ROADWAYS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIMITED TO TIMES OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. Can't wait to see my first accumulating snow since 3/3! Heading to Park City, eh? Sweet. The Wasatch are some epic mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Still some lingering daylight on the horizon at 8:10PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Heading to Park City, eh? Sweet. The Wasatch are some epic mountains. Yup. Probably skiing 4/13 and then their closing day 4/15, but it will depend on the snowfall out there. We were going to visit family in Salt Lake City on Saturday, but if it looks like Saturday will be an epic ski day, we could switch it. At the very least looks like at least a few inches on Thurs-Sat. Possibly a good amount more than that though, looking at todays 12z runs of the Euro and GFS. Not that I know anything about forecasting out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 BUBBA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 That's a really good question... you know I have no idea. I always feel like upslope gets better "organized" at night though for the most part. I'm not sure why that is or even if its true, but its a gut feeling I've gotten from watching these things over the years and experiencing them. You usually get "surprised" overnight with decent accumulations but during the daytime sometimes it seems to struggle with cellular snow showers and squalls...at night you're more likely to find one consolidated band stretching north-south along the Spine. So now that I am thinking/talking about it, I would say there's a good chance the sun has something to do with it. I think strengthening and lowering inversion levels at night has something to do with it... cause as that inversion comes down, the Spine obviously stays the same, so moisture is "squeezed" out much more efficiently or more concentrated (heavier precip rates), if you can call it that. Inversion strengthens and lowers and night, blocking flow. During the day (esp with higher sun angles), the inversion can mix out and rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 BUBBA! Unbelievable approach shot on the last playoff hole. WOWZER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Unbelievable approach shot on the last playoff hole. WOWZER. Yes sir! Good to see a southern boy win, and of course with all thats going on in his life. T- 4 days till heaven. By the way, total gem down here today, another 60+ DIXIE delight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Back up in the 'ville. 38F and dreary conditions. Snow level is at 2,000ft in the whites with temps in the valleys running 34-38F. Left CT with 59F and sun, returned to sh*t lol typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Yes sir! Good to see a southern boy win, and of course with all thats going on in his life. T- 4 days till heaven. By the way, total gem down here today, another 60+ DIXIE delight. I was down around Hudson,NY today. It was sunny and 60 there. Gross. It was nice to get home to cloudy, windy 40's. Snowed for a while here this AM. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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