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Boredom/Banter thread..Nothing but normal to slightly above


Damage In Tolland

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But I mean, it will snow up here, at least above 1K or 1.5K feet...at night it'll get down to the valley like its doing right now.

Classic upslope flow though and models will always under-estimate QPF here locally with a low pressure system near the northern tip of Maine (climo favored location)... so given that the GFS is even seeing *some* QPF, tomorrow may have some surprises up in the mountains.

gfs_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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But I mean, it will snow up here, at least above 1K or 1.5K feet...at night it'll get down to the valley like its doing right now.

Classic upslope flow though and models will always under-estimate QPF here locally with a low pressure system near the northern tip of Maine (climo favored location)... so given that the GFS is even seeing *some* QPF, tomorrow may have some surprises up in the mountains.

As I suspected, with the larger grid models showing even *some* QPF, is usually a big indicator of some sort of upslope event about to take place.

Meanwhile, the 4km BTV WRF which "sees" the different terrain (and often goes a little too wild) thinks Mansfield is going to get 2.12" of liquid in a 24 hour period tomorrow with upslope flow... it also brings us in Lamoille County here a boatload of rain in the valley and a boatload of snow above 2,000ft.

LOL this is like 20"+ at the summit in 24 hours.

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As I suspected, with the larger grid models showing even *some* QPF, is usually a big indicator of some sort of upslope event about to take place.

Meanwhile, the 4km BTV WRF which "sees" the different terrain (and often goes a little too wild) thinks Mansfield is going to get 2.12" of liquid in a 24 hour period tomorrow with upslope flow... it also brings us in Lamoille County here a boatload of rain in the valley and a boatload of snow above 2,000ft.

LOL this is like 20"+ at the summit in 24 hours.

Nice, looks like we'll get a little action here to based on that. I'm supposed to hike Mt. Greylock with a friend that's visiting this week from South Carolina. It'll be nice in the snow. One day last week Greylock was totally white down to about 1K. Looked great.

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Congrats vim toot!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME

848 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

MEZ001-002-082100-

/O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-120409T0400Z/

NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...

FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...PRESQUE ISLE...CARIBOU...VAN BUREN...

MARS HILL

848 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT

TONIGHT...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...WET SNOW

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WITH BEST

SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOW IMPACT. SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL

DIFFICULTIES WITH ROADS SNOW OR SLUSH COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF TRAVELING... SLOW DOWN AND PLAN EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR

DESTINATION. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR OTHER

MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS.

&&

$$

NORTON

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As I suspected, with the larger grid models showing even *some* QPF, is usually a big indicator of some sort of upslope event about to take place.

Meanwhile, the 4km BTV WRF which "sees" the different terrain (and often goes a little too wild) thinks Mansfield is going to get 2.12" of liquid in a 24 hour period tomorrow with upslope flow... it also brings us in Lamoille County here a boatload of rain in the valley and a boatload of snow above 2,000ft.

LOL this is like 20"+ at the summit in 24 hours.

LOL, the BTV WRF must think the Berkshires are a 4K+ barrier to produce that kind of upslope precip. :lmao: The 0.1"+ on the west side of the ORH hills is pretty wild too. I don't think I've ever seen that amount of upslope there. Although it's certainly overdone, the Greens could get some last minute love again, especially for Killington on north where some significant amounts are likely to occur. Regardless, even the southern Greens and northern Berks could get some upslope rain and snow showers, but mostly likely not a big deal.

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LOL, the BTV WRF must think the Berkshires are a 4K+ barrier to produce that kind of upslope precip. :lmao: The 0.1"+ on the west side of the ORH hills is pretty wild too. I don't think I've ever seen that amount of upslope there. Although it's certainly overdone, the Greens could get some last minute love again, especially for Killington on north where some significant amounts are likely to occur. Regardless, even the southern Greens and northern Berks could get some upslope rain and snow showers, but mostly likely not a big deal.

I think it even has some upslope over Boyd hall.
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LOL, the BTV WRF must think the Berkshires are a 4K+ barrier to produce that kind of upslope precip. :lmao: The 0.1"+ on the west side of the ORH hills is pretty wild too. I don't think I've ever seen that amount of upslope there. Although it's certainly overdone, the Greens could get some last minute love again, especially for Killington on north where some significant amounts are likely to occur. Regardless, even the southern Greens and northern Berks could get some upslope rain and snow showers, but mostly likely not a big deal.

LOL it is a special model...it's overdone up here like any NAM/WRF QPF products are but it's always closer than like the GFS or GGEM or ECM which will show 0.01-0.1" and we'll get a half inch of liquid. Which is why when I saw the GFS with 24-hour amounts of 0.25-0.5" I knew the meso models would be crazy high.

To get the GFS to even indicate more than 0.1" in an orographic situation up here means we could be in for a much needed precip event.

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Holy Sh*t. Fire can be wicked. Psyched for a super Masters Sunday.

Yeah dude! No better way to spend a Sunday than tracking snow and watching The Masters. The Lamoille County zone forecast has taken a turn for the snowy...

Monday

Cloudy. Rain or snow showers likely...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Monday Night

Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Tuesday

Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

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Just about to cross into NYS, no leaf out noted. We'll see if there is even anything down on the floor of the HV. Full leaf out by 4/1. Pffft, maybe in MA states like CT but certainly not in New England proper.

It's going to be AWT to no leaf out (greater than 50%) by mid April. You have to sustain those incredible temps for weeks in order to beat climo by a month or more. Mother Nature is very stubborn and does not like to deviate all that much when it comes to things like that.

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Yeah dude! No better way to spend a Sunday than tracking snow and watching The Masters. The Lamoille County zone forecast has taken a turn for the snowy...

Monday

Cloudy. Rain or snow showers likely...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Monday Night

Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Tuesday

Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Even the AK gang stops their powderfest to watch it on Sunday.lol Fun course.
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It's going to be AWT to no leaf out (greater than 50%) by mid April. You have to sustain those incredible temps for weeks in order to beat climo by a month or more. Mother Nature is very stubborn and does not like to deviate all that much when it comes to things like that.

Funny how some weenies were tricked.
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Just about to cross into NYS, no leaf out noted. We'll see if there is even anything down on the floor of the HV. Full leaf out by 4/1. Pffft, maybe in MA states like CT but certainly not in New England proper.

During the heat wave a couple weeks back, the popples & red maples sprung out in bloom even up to 2k but since then, next to nothing has popped, outside of a few crocuses...

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I take that back...43.8F and snowing here. :lol:

Same thing here 44F and snowing. My dad texted me from MHT to say the same as your mom and ask if it was snowing here too. Thought I was seeing pollen at first with the temperature being what it is.

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