powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 But I mean, it will snow up here, at least above 1K or 1.5K feet...at night it'll get down to the valley like its doing right now. Classic upslope flow though and models will always under-estimate QPF here locally with a low pressure system near the northern tip of Maine (climo favored location)... so given that the GFS is even seeing *some* QPF, tomorrow may have some surprises up in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 But I mean, it will snow up here, at least above 1K or 1.5K feet...at night it'll get down to the valley like its doing right now. Classic upslope flow though and models will always under-estimate QPF here locally with a low pressure system near the northern tip of Maine (climo favored location)... so given that the GFS is even seeing *some* QPF, tomorrow may have some surprises up in the mountains. As I suspected, with the larger grid models showing even *some* QPF, is usually a big indicator of some sort of upslope event about to take place. Meanwhile, the 4km BTV WRF which "sees" the different terrain (and often goes a little too wild) thinks Mansfield is going to get 2.12" of liquid in a 24 hour period tomorrow with upslope flow... it also brings us in Lamoille County here a boatload of rain in the valley and a boatload of snow above 2,000ft. LOL this is like 20"+ at the summit in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I've nearly eradicated the flying squirrel colony that has tried to set up shop in our attic. Got 2 last night and I think there are only 1 or 2 left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 As I suspected, with the larger grid models showing even *some* QPF, is usually a big indicator of some sort of upslope event about to take place. Meanwhile, the 4km BTV WRF which "sees" the different terrain (and often goes a little too wild) thinks Mansfield is going to get 2.12" of liquid in a 24 hour period tomorrow with upslope flow... it also brings us in Lamoille County here a boatload of rain in the valley and a boatload of snow above 2,000ft. LOL this is like 20"+ at the summit in 24 hours. Nice, looks like we'll get a little action here to based on that. I'm supposed to hike Mt. Greylock with a friend that's visiting this week from South Carolina. It'll be nice in the snow. One day last week Greylock was totally white down to about 1K. Looked great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 OT, but does anyone get the military channel? That channel is fooking awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 OT, but does anyone get the military channel? That channel is fooking awesome. Have it here on DIRECTV. Pretty good stuff on there at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Congrats vim toot! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 848 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012 MEZ001-002-082100- /O.CON.KCAR.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-120409T0400Z/ NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA... FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...PRESQUE ISLE...CARIBOU...VAN BUREN... MARS HILL 848 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...WET SNOW * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING WITH BEST SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...LOW IMPACT. SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES WITH ROADS SNOW OR SLUSH COVERED AND SLIPPERY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF TRAVELING... SLOW DOWN AND PLAN EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS. && $$ NORTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Have it here on DIRECTV. Pretty good stuff on there at times. Same here with DirecTV (awesome btw) I like the old footage of WWII dogfights. The POV stuff is intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Congrats Tooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 KCAR 081254Z AUTO 32013G20KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M01/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 SLP030 P0007 T10061017 How I wish this were in SNE. Lucky bastards! Gotta be quite the high life up there in Aroostook County. Anyways, Happy Easter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 As I suspected, with the larger grid models showing even *some* QPF, is usually a big indicator of some sort of upslope event about to take place. Meanwhile, the 4km BTV WRF which "sees" the different terrain (and often goes a little too wild) thinks Mansfield is going to get 2.12" of liquid in a 24 hour period tomorrow with upslope flow... it also brings us in Lamoille County here a boatload of rain in the valley and a boatload of snow above 2,000ft. LOL this is like 20"+ at the summit in 24 hours. LOL, the BTV WRF must think the Berkshires are a 4K+ barrier to produce that kind of upslope precip. The 0.1"+ on the west side of the ORH hills is pretty wild too. I don't think I've ever seen that amount of upslope there. Although it's certainly overdone, the Greens could get some last minute love again, especially for Killington on north where some significant amounts are likely to occur. Regardless, even the southern Greens and northern Berks could get some upslope rain and snow showers, but mostly likely not a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 LOL, the BTV WRF must think the Berkshires are a 4K+ barrier to produce that kind of upslope precip. The 0.1"+ on the west side of the ORH hills is pretty wild too. I don't think I've ever seen that amount of upslope there. Although it's certainly overdone, the Greens could get some last minute love again, especially for Killington on north where some significant amounts are likely to occur. Regardless, even the southern Greens and northern Berks could get some upslope rain and snow showers, but mostly likely not a big deal. I think it even has some upslope over Boyd hall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 If that were in florida, they would be dead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 HAPPY EASTER, hope you all are having a lovely breakfast of hardboiled colored eggs and a crap load of anything chocolate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 LOL, the BTV WRF must think the Berkshires are a 4K+ barrier to produce that kind of upslope precip. The 0.1"+ on the west side of the ORH hills is pretty wild too. I don't think I've ever seen that amount of upslope there. Although it's certainly overdone, the Greens could get some last minute love again, especially for Killington on north where some significant amounts are likely to occur. Regardless, even the southern Greens and northern Berks could get some upslope rain and snow showers, but mostly likely not a big deal. LOL it is a special model...it's overdone up here like any NAM/WRF QPF products are but it's always closer than like the GFS or GGEM or ECM which will show 0.01-0.1" and we'll get a half inch of liquid. Which is why when I saw the GFS with 24-hour amounts of 0.25-0.5" I knew the meso models would be crazy high. To get the GFS to even indicate more than 0.1" in an orographic situation up here means we could be in for a much needed precip event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 KCAR 081254Z AUTO 32013G20KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M01/M02 A2959 RMK AO2 SLP030 P0007 T10061017 How I wish this were in SNE. Lucky bastards! Gotta be quite the high life up there in Aroostook County. Anyways, Happy Easter! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Holy Sh*t. Fire can be wicked. Psyched for a super Masters Sunday. Yeah dude! No better way to spend a Sunday than tracking snow and watching The Masters. The Lamoille County zone forecast has taken a turn for the snowy... Monday Cloudy. Rain or snow showers likely...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Monday Night Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Just a horrible pattern coming up for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Just about to cross into NYS, no leaf out noted. We'll see if there is even anything down on the floor of the HV. Full leaf out by 4/1. Pffft, maybe in MA states like CT but certainly not in New England proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Just about to cross into NYS, no leaf out noted. We'll see if there is even anything down on the floor of the HV. Full leaf out by 4/1. Pffft, maybe in MA states like CT but certainly not in New England proper. It's going to be AWT to no leaf out (greater than 50%) by mid April. You have to sustain those incredible temps for weeks in order to beat climo by a month or more. Mother Nature is very stubborn and does not like to deviate all that much when it comes to things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Yeah dude! No better way to spend a Sunday than tracking snow and watching The Masters. The Lamoille County zone forecast has taken a turn for the snowy... Monday Cloudy. Rain or snow showers likely...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Highs in the lower 40s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Monday Night Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Tuesday Rain or snow showers likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the lower 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Even the AK gang stops their powderfest to watch it on Sunday.lol Fun course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 It's going to be AWT to no leaf out (greater than 50%) by mid April. You have to sustain those incredible temps for weeks in order to beat climo by a month or more. Mother Nature is very stubborn and does not like to deviate all that much when it comes to things like that. Funny how some weenies were tricked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Just a horrible pattern coming up for this week. Aside from Pete and Ginx, every other member from SNE will have me on ignore by Tuesday if this breaks towards a snowy outcome up here. Cut off junk with east flow no thanks...cut off with northwest flow yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Just about to cross into NYS, no leaf out noted. We'll see if there is even anything down on the floor of the HV. Full leaf out by 4/1. Pffft, maybe in MA states like CT but certainly not in New England proper. During the heat wave a couple weeks back, the popples & red maples sprung out in bloom even up to 2k but since then, next to nothing has popped, outside of a few crocuses... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 My mom just texted me that it's snowing in Hooksett. Probably just weenie flakes...nothing here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I take that back...43.8F and snowing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I take that back...43.8F and snowing here. Nice, looks like that could be happening in nrn MA too. Nothing here yet at work. Either way, AWT handed out to LL and Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I take that back...43.8F and snowing here. Feels like October with dead leaves covering the forest floor, temps in the upper 30s and non-accumulating snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I take that back...43.8F and snowing here. Same thing here 44F and snowing. My dad texted me from MHT to say the same as your mom and ask if it was snowing here too. Thought I was seeing pollen at first with the temperature being what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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