Typhoon Tip Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Warm up is a false signal, or will be transient. Long range will be dominated by a negative NAO, which will continue to enforce below normal temps across New England. We are not done with snow threats either. Notice how the GEFS have busted on the NAO forecast in the last week. Classic overperforming negative NAO right now, supported by now dominant tropical forcing relocated to the central Pacific. MJO is a very signal now, and will have to be taken into account when looking at the long range models The 7 and 10 day NAO leads have been biased too high at CPC. I am more concerened with the tight clustering of the PNA to settle off negative, though, and how that is antithetic to the correlation of the MJO in the 7-8-1 wave space. I think any such warm up will wait until after the 15th, so plenty of time to evolve one way or the other. By then, the wave may be exiting Phase 1 and heading into 2 - fwiw. One thing to remember in general, is that that the MJO's effect is not a static vector, but also has a transient influence; and if the rest of the atmospheric domain is deconstructively interferring, the wave's presence may thus not be long enough to overcome those opposing momenta. The correlation is less coherent when that happens. As far as the NAO, we'll know soon enough. Both CDC and CPC, which are GEFs-reliant, have the NAO rapidly rising over the next 7 days. Though there is a discerned positive bias in the D7-10 range as noted, that can correct all at once where the bias was then proven to be merely a timing issue more than a scalar magnitude. It is interesting to see all the operational runs trying to send negative geopotential anomalies into the D. Straight region in time. The other thing is, -NAO's can be east biased as we well know... As the R-counts increase during warm transition season, an east based NAO usually puts a ridge on the east coast, while not violating the expectation of a -NAO et al. So I have mixed emotions on all this. It's hard to knock the multi-month persistency of at or above normal until something more convincing than what we are seeing now, is verifying. If that were not enough... it is certainly possible that as this wave continues to space-shuttle in strength up into Phase 8 at a 70 degree angle as it is, an influence on the flow at middle latitudes could show up all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 6, 2012 Author Share Posted April 6, 2012 Warm up is a false signal, or will be transient. Long range will be dominated by a negative NAO, which will continue to enforce below normal temps across New England. We are not done with snow threats either. Notice how the GEFS have busted on the NAO forecast in the last week. Classic overperforming negative NAO right now, supported by now dominant tropical forcing relocated to the central Pacific. MJO is a very signal now, and will have to be taken into account when looking at the long range models Easy Sammy. It's mid April..It;'s over. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 7 out of the last 10 have been spring Huh? Wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Next week could be pretty unsettled with that trough hanging around and little spikes of Vorticity igniting aftn clouds and some ra or sn showers in the aftn....especially Wednesday and/or thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Next week could be pretty unsettled with that trough hanging around and little spikes of Vorticity igniting aftn clouds and some ra or sn showers in the aftn....especially Wednesday and/or thursday. Typical April pattern... timing the little spokes of energy is always tough this time of year. If I were CtBlizz, I'd say that SN is impossible... but given how cold it will be aloft, it's certainly a possibility, esp. the higher terrain. As usual. Zzzzzzz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Typical April pattern... timing the little spokes of energy is always tough this time of year. If I were CtBlizz, I'd say that SN is impossible... but given how cold it will be aloft, it's certainly a possibility, esp. the higher terrain. As usual. Zzzzzzz. Yeah I could see graupel or some snow maybe at 2k or Stowe....typical places. Shiat pattern lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 <p> You'll have a hard time convincing MRG and Mr. Ginx of that. Are u serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Yeah I could see graupel or some snow maybe at 2k or Stowe....typical places. Shiat pattern lol. Hopefully it is just limited to next week. I'll be in SF for the end of the week so it can suck all it wants for those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Hopefully it is just limited to next week. I'll be in SF for the end of the week so it can suck all it wants for those days. I'm ready for warmer wx at this point. This is useless right now....but at least it is sunny. If it's not gonna be warm then let's get a good nor'easter going. Given that, I think we gotta be aware if backdoors this time of year. Everybody sees warm 850 temps and ridging but that means nothing if there is a high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 It's nicer out now...but still pretty cool. ORH up to 49F. Up to 51.1/17 imby under clear skies. Temps should really plunge after sunset with DPs running in the mid-upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Driving through KCON heading south at the moment and the Merrimack river looks darn low for April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 anyone who can't see that we've been in a severe torch since 11/1 should have their head examined. Departures from average have only increased as each month has gone on. April is off to an above normal start even as the torch slumbers at the moment. November 1-March 31 departures at the New England first-order stations... 1V4 +2.9 BDL +2.5 BDR +2.8 BOS +3.0 BTV +3.2 CAR +2.7 CON +2.4 FVE +1.7 HUL +2.3 MLT +2.7 ORH +2.9 PVD +2.2 PWM +2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Driving through KCON heading south at the moment and the Merrimack river looks darn low for April. I noticed that the other day and thought the same thing to myself. They must have adjusted the level on some upstream dam. I live a few miles from it and drive by every day, it was a sudden change of about 8 feet from one day to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 November 1-March 31 departures at the New England first-order stations... 1V4 +2.9 BDL +2.5 BDR +2.8 BOS +3.0 BTV +3.2 CAR +2.7 CON +2.4 FVE +1.7 HUL +2.3 MLT +2.7 ORH +2.9 PVD +2.2 PWM +2.5 Reppin' the 802 hahah Beauty down here. 57F for the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Dude. We have a neg NAO right now and temps are still in the normal to positive departure territory. This weekend looks to be classic spring weather here with highs in the 60s. This winter was over a long time ago. You need cold air for snow, and unfortunately we have none of it. I was just up in Toronto and even there it was in the 50s by day and mid/upper 30s by night. Dude, it was like 21 here this morning....dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 It definitely does look milder mid to late month, but there is also the chance of back doors or fronts stalled just south....based on the pattern. It's a weak -NAO signal, but it does not take much to send it SW. I'm not saying it will definitely happen or appear with any frequency, but it's on my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 41/13, just a brutally hot day. I may have to throw open all the windows tonight as the low temp is only supposed to drop into the 20's!!! Very uncomfortable sleeping weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 49.1F for a high here...a bit below what the good folks at BOX (well, their compueter at least) thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 It definitely does look milder mid to late month, but there is also the chance of back doors or fronts stalled just south....based on the pattern. It's a weak -NAO signal, but it does not take much to send it SW. I'm not saying it will definitely happen or appear with any frequency, but it's on my mind. Persistent troughiness will be something to watch for. How many times have you seen New England protected from a big mid continent heat ridge? Pretty sure this becomes the dominant theme as we move through late summer and into the fall. Look for a big rebound next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Persistent troughiness will be something to watch for. How many times have you seen New England protected from a big mid continent heat ridge? Pretty sure this becomes the dominant theme as we move through late summer and into the fall. Look for a big rebound next winter. Pretty sure we at least briefly torch or a day or two. However, not sure of prolonged 60s-70s type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Pretty sure we at least briefly torch or a day or two. However, not sure of prolonged 60s-70s type stuff. Cool, glad you agree with me on a snowy '11-'12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 It's going to be June and people will still be calling for snow threats because of troughs. It's OVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Cool, glad you agree with me on a snowy '11-'12. It was over before it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Cool, glad you agree with me on a snowy '11-'12. It was over before it started. My bad, I meant I'm glad you agree with me on a snowy '12-'13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 It's going to be June and people will still be calling for snow threats because of troughs. It's OVA This. Atleast for SNE and CNE. NNE is out of the game May 1 LOL. 41/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Happy Easter Kids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Happy Easter Kids Yessir, you too bud! (Happy Passover to all our Jewish friends!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 i wish i was at saddleback/sugar loaf for easter. looks like snow squalls and temps in 20's/30's while L libations will be mid 60's. EMA looks dicey with possible drizzle and N winds but where it's clear 60 degrees west of 495? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 23/19, the sweltering heat overnight made for tough sleeping conditions. Hope we get a break from this inferno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 23/19, the sweltering heat overnight made for tough sleeping conditions. Hope we get a break from this inferno. Are you still shoveling out from all of your april snowfall predictions? Sun and 60 forecast here, mid 60s will actually be the real number when all is said and done, happy holidays, installing my first garden of the year today. Long day, by rewarding..........vacation only 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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