Snowlover76 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Right on cue - just when chances for accumulating snow become slim to none, Mother Nature takes us out of the blowtorch pattern. I think the next month will still end up slightly above normal, but we're looking at more neg departure days than we've seen the past 5 months. I don't think we get into an below normal temperature pattern until June at the earliest, most likely in July though but there is a chance that June could average below normal. May will be a blow torch IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 New 12z euro ensembles are pretty much identical to the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 I don't think we get into an below normal temperature pattern until June at the earliest, most likely in July though but there is a chance that June could average below normal. May will be a blow torch IMO. Yeah we had a discussion about this in my thread. I'm leaning warm for May right now, and cooler for JJA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 New 12z euro ensembles are pretty much identical to the operational. At least the ENS mean lifts the trough out by next weekend. The OP always seems to be cutoff happy day 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Lol...torch pattern ends just in time for spring...lol....this might be payback to forky, for mild winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 DGEX would end all the fire talk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 It be cool to.pull off a real powerful nor easter like 2010...then torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 DGEX would end all the fire talk: That has to be wrong just because it's actually showing significant moisture here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 At least the ENS mean lifts the trough out by next weekend. The OP always seems to be cutoff happy day 8-10. The Euro ensembles look much like the 12z GEFS at 240hr.Trough out west beginning to pump up the ridge over the Eastern US: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 DGEX would end all the fire talk: I don't think the DGEX showed a big storm like that in a while... usually when the GFS comes close to a big storm the DGEX completes it with a fantasy solution. I'd dismiss it as a typical DGEX fantasy storm, maybe there could be a more noticeable storm but the DGEX ususally overdoes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 I don't think the DGEX showed a big storm like that in a while... usually when the GFS comes close to a big storm the DGEX completes it with a fantasy solution. I'd dismiss it as a typical DGEX fantasy storm, maybe there could be a more noticeable storm but the DGEX ususally overdoes it. Euro ensembles have a coastal during that time frame as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Euro ensembles have a coastal during that time frame as well. So does the ECM operational run; having a storm in this time frame is a reasonable possibility. However, given the DGEX's track record it wouldn't surprise me if it's overdoing the storm with its latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Too warm coast is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Too warm coast is rain. Obviously. But a big noreaster would be better then this boring weather we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 just checked the dgex snow maps on vista. Here are the totals: LI - 3-6" nyc- 8-12" NE Jersey - 10-12" NW - 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 just checked the dgex snow maps on vista. Here are the totals: LI - 3-6" nyc- 8-12" NE Jersey - 10-12" NW - 12-18" NCEP snow maps show zero snow for anyone. Temps are in the mid 40's. Not sure if you were joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 NCEP snow maps show zero snow for anyone. Temps are in the mid 40's. Not sure if you were joking. I know I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 NCEP snow maps show zero snow for anyone. Temps are in the mid 40's. Not sure if you were joking. dude, really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 dude, really I'm hoping this threat is real. This weather is so boring. We are due for a strong noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I'm hoping this threat is real. This weather is so boring. We are due for a strong noreaster. I hope so to. I feel like everything needs a good soaking before spring really takes off later this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 I am rooting for a big noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Euro has al greeks nor easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Euro has al greeks nor easter Yep, certainly not as impressive as the DGEX from last night, but it's still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Warm up coming by around mid-month for the area. With the Mexican/SW drought conditions, above normal temps will build over the SW next week before coming east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 The warm up doesn't look sustained, 2-3 days of very warm before more seasonable temps is more likely. Warm air would only increase the fire dangers though as dry conditions are likely to continue and worsen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Warm up coming by around mid-month for the area. With the Mexican/SW drought conditions, above normal temps will build over the SW next week before coming east. The dry weather here could certainly cause it to be hotter over the summer than it otherwise would be as well, if it keeps up. The drought over Texas and the SW contributed to our searingly hot summer last year, and likely would again if it persists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Also, Long Island under moderate drought as of this morning: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?NY,NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Why would anyone want a Nor'Easter that brings raw low 40s and heavy rain? Worst weather possible... it's just obnoxious at this point that some are still rooting for cold/snow... I was off that train by 2/1, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 The dry weather here could certainly cause it to be hotter over the summer than it otherwise would be as well, if it keeps up. The drought over Texas and the SW contributed to our searingly hot summer last year, and likely would again if it persists. It will be interesting to see if the heat dome is further north this summer into the plains as the drier conditions extend further north this spring than last. Recently we have seen the big ridges set up in the summer where the driest spring conditions were found. April 2012 April 2011 Summer 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 Why would anyone want a Nor'Easter that brings raw low 40s and heavy rain? Worst weather possible... it's just obnoxious at this point that some are still rooting for cold/snow... I was off that train by 2/1, We've got to have something to make the general public miserable; they've been way too complacent the past several months, and their happiness is making me sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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