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2012 April Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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denialist talking points:

the hockey stick is wrong

climate scientists have an agenda

we were warmer during the middle ages

sample size is too small

urban heat island

earth has cycles

it's the sun

ice cores and tree samples are inaccurate

And your talking point is ?

it agrees with my ideology , so everyone else is an idiot .

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Global warming is better than global cooling, that is for sure.

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on that note, we see to be busting warm on guidance...sitting at 60 already here

models are not handling this pattern well at all in the mid/long range - next weeks big trough will be a bust too - by mid month we will be at least a couple degrees above normal for April more then likely and very dry .........

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models are not handling this pattern well at all in the mid/long range - next weeks big trough will be a bust too - by mid month we will be at least a couple degrees above normal for April more then likely and very dry .........

Disagree. There's pretty strong support for next week being below normal, given support from tropical forcing and a negative NAO. Also interesting to note that GFS forecasts have been too bullish on the positive NAO/AO over the past few weeks; observations have been more negative than guidance.

I agree about the dry part though.

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Global warming is better than global cooling, that is for sure.

-

on that note, we see to be busting warm on guidance...sitting at 60 already here

NAM is doing OK. Newark is back to being several degerees above NYC but other then that, NYC area is 60-64 right now. NAM had mid to upper 60's for the area today.

BDR is only 57 right now.

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Disagree. There's pretty strong support for next week being below normal, given support from tropical forcing and a negative NAO. Also interesting to note that GFS forecasts have been too bullish on the positive NAO/AO over the past few weeks; observations have been more negative than guidance.

I agree about the dry part though.

I think temps will end up beating the model forecasts by a few degrees everyday because of the dry weather and abundant sunshine most of the period - plus after today central park will be at least 2 degrees above normal for the month already

in addition look at Uptons forecast a few low - mid 60's days coming up that is above normal

http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html

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:weenie:

its been showing that in the long range since October.

12z euro is not long range. It has the offshore coastal on Friday cutting off and spinning and retrograding into the Northeast for days and days due to blocking in Greenland. A cutoff after cutoff pattern.

This has support from ensembles and other models.

Im hoping its overdone because the 12z euro verbatim is hideous for our area.

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Take this elsewhere, please. Climate Change is unbearable enough to wade through without it spreading to here.

I agree with those who assert global warming, but it seems minds won't change on either side right now. So on to how nice this day is. Average temps this time of year would be perfect for what I like, unless model have both snow and cold.

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Disagree. There's pretty strong support for next week being below normal, given support from tropical forcing and a negative NAO. Also interesting to note that GFS forecasts have been too bullish on the positive NAO/AO over the past few weeks; observations have been more negative than guidance.

I agree about the dry part though.

We had the -NAO and MJO in phase 7 this week. Yet we are still saw above normal temps, the past two days. I think we wind up averaging near normal, the next 10 days or so. While the MJO move in the cooler phases 8,1,2. Then we rebound in later in April to more positive departures, with the MJO probably moving through the warmer phases 3-5, I think stronger than what's being forecasted below. The Euro ensembles have been to be too weak and slow with MJO, out to 15 days.

post-187-0-47759300-1333568334.gif

post-187-0-20280300-1333568567.gif

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our torch warm pattern seems to be breaking down

Right on cue - just when chances for accumulating snow become slim to none, Mother Nature takes us out of the blowtorch pattern. I think the next month will still end up slightly above normal, but we're looking at more neg departure days than we've seen the past 5 months.

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