Stormlover74 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE- PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 346 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT. * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. * IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 This weekend looks like PERFECT early spring weather.. Sunny - highs 60-65 - low winds.. Can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 12z NAM was farely accurate. Had 62-63 degree highs for the city: Yeah, yesterday was cooler but today's 12z was a little closer but still a little too cool. Monday 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 The lack of rain over the past few months coupled with an early growing season is going to be a serious concern as temperatures warm and more vegetation emerges. It's been a while since we had continuous statements regarding fires every day. Over the next week, I see maybe a .10-.25" of rain in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 It is actually not a bad post at all...it asks questions (albeit some rhetorical) and then makes a few points which are in fact legitimate...save for the part about the Medieval Warm Period being warmer than today...it is believed that the height of the current global warm period (about 1998) was slightly warmer than the MWP...though actual temperature records were obviously non-existent back then and other methods are used by contemporary climatologists to gauge what it was like. I have a problem with "we will eventually balance out." There is no scientific reason that suggests that we HAVE to balance out. And we can't just start asking for averages from 100,000 years ago. There were so many conditions that differed then from the present setup that you cannot possibly make a comparison between the two. Another thing people forget is that changes occurring today are happening in a geologic blink of an eye. All the changes seen in the past have taken much longer to occur. If you give me the argument that because it once was warmer 600 years ago to prove that everything occurring today is normal it shows that you have no understanding of time scales in this field. To even suggest anything beyond a couple of centuries as a valid gauge as to what we should be seeing today is ludicrous. 4.6 billion years ago the planet was largely molten. Clearly we are way below average today! I'm not going to respond anymore on this topic. I have no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Yeah even the nearly .75" of rain this past weekend is no match for the extremely dry air and strong winds The lack of rain over the past few months coupled with an early growing season is going to be a serious concern as temperatures warm and more vegetation emerges. It's been a while since we had continuous statements regarding fires every day. Over the next week, I see maybe a .10-.25" of rain in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Should someone start a Fire weather thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 KEWR starting the warm season off on the right foot -- several degrees warmer than NYC. 67F at EWR and 63F at NYC right now, 4 degree spread and trees haven't even leafed out yet. Get ready for another season of 94's at Newark and 89's at Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 Should someone start a Fire weather thread? go ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Just saw Amy Freeze as fill in for Lee Goldberg. Very pleasant. Besides the forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 I have a problem with "we will eventually balance out." There is no scientific reason that suggests that we HAVE to balance out. And we can't just start asking for averages from 100,000 years ago. There were so many conditions that differed then from the present setup that you cannot possibly make a comparison between the two. I don't think I ever implied in my use of the phrase "balancing out" anything but the last 100 years or so as a basis for comparison...i.e. the modern climate record. Another thing people forget is that changes occurring today are happening in a geologic blink of an eye. All the changes seen in the past have taken much longer to occur. If you give me the argument that because it once was warmer 600 years ago to prove that everything occurring today is normal it shows that you have no understanding of time scales in this field. To even suggest anything beyond a couple of centuries as a valid gauge as to what we should be seeing today is ludicrous. I'm not sure I ever said that but thanks for the vote of confidence anyways. 4.6 billion years ago the planet was largely molten. Clearly we are way below average today! Even then, I'd wager that LGA would come in a few degrees warmer than everyone else in the AM. I'm not going to respond anymore on this topic. I have no time. But I do! <Off from work today> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 It is actually not a bad post at all...it asks questions (albeit some rhetorical) and then makes a few points which are in fact legitimate...save for the part about the Medieval Warm Period being warmer than today...it is believed that the height of the current global warm period (about 1998) was slightly warmer than the MWP...though actual temperature records were obviously non-existent back then and other methods are used by contemporary climatologists to gauge what it was like. http://www.dailymail...-emissions.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 I don't think I ever implied in my use of the phrase "balancing out" anything but the last 100 years or so as a basis for comparison...i.e. the modern climate record. I'm not sure I ever said that but thanks for the vote of confidence anyways. Even then, I'd wager that LGA would come in a few degrees warmer than everyone else in the AM. But I do! <Off from work today> Actually I wasn't referring to you. I was speaking about NExtreme and anyone else in general. Anyway. Nice weather we're having. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 http://www.dailymail...-emissions.html Title of article you linked: Is this finally proof we're NOT causing global warming? The whole of the Earth heated up in medieval times without human CO2 emissions, says new study Within the article: Lu says that his research has no direct bearing on the current climate, and points out that his research is restricted to one area in Antarctica, and is not in itself proof that the whole Earth warmed up. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Actually I wasn't referring to you. I was speaking about NExtreme and anyone else in general. Anyway. Nice weather we're having. It was my inference per the fact that I was the one you quoted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 It was my inference per the fact that I was the one you quoted... Well there's your problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 This weekend looks like PERFECT early spring weather.. Sunny - highs 60-65 - low winds.. Can't wait! ..flounder time !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 The last few days the wind has been such a pain for clean ups.....and very cold done with cleanups and on our 2nd cycle already cutting lawns. The early warmth gave us a big head start this year. first time ever we did about 80% of our lawns before April 1, customers will be bitching now about why is their bill so high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 done with cleanups and on our 2nd cycle already cutting lawns. The early warmth gave us a big head start this year. first time ever we did about 80% of our lawns before April 1, customers will be bitching now about why is their bill so high Same here....this extra week of cutting will make up a bit for the crap winter......never cut grass in march....had to double cut some high end lawns also......im so grateful for early start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 Kind of a boring weather pattern the next couple of weeks -very dry and normal to slightly above average temps http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/22/more-evidence-the-medieval-warm-period-was-global/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 http://wattsupwithth...iod-was-global/ The best information that we currently have suggests that the warmth of the last two decades has surpassed the MWP. It's also important to note how gradual that warming was compared to what we are experiencing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 The best information that we currently have suggests that the warmth of the last two decades has surpassed the MWP. It's also important to note how gradual that warming was compared to what we are experiencing today. The current curve " looks dramatic" , if you believe global temp data haven`t been skewed to fit a specific argument . There has been arguments that lowest relaized temps have been deleted when calculating daily averages , describing them as anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 The best information that we currently have suggests that the warmth of the last two decades has surpassed the MWP. It's also important to note how gradual that warming was compared to what we are experiencing today. That looks like the hockey stick graph by Mann which was debunked a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 The current curve " looks dramatic" , if you believe global temp data haven`t been skewed to fit a specific argument . There has been arguments that lowest relaized temps have been deleted when calculating daily averages , describing them as anomalies. The rise has been very dramatic recently. Look at the recent data especially for the Northern Hemisphere where we live. The older reconstructions are just doing the best that they can with the current technology available. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/ZonAnn.Ts+dSST.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 someone needs to send this graph to JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 That looks like the hockey stick graph by Mann which was debunked a few years back. That's Moberg not Mann. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/moberg.html As with the other reconstructions, regardless of the proxy data used, this reconstruction indicates that the temperatures of the last two decades are warmer than any other period in the past two millennia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 The rise has been very dramatic recently. Look at the recent data especially for the Northern Hemisphere where we live. The older reconstructions are just doing the best that they can with the current technology available. http://data.giss.nas...Ann.Ts+dSST.txt Maybe right , or may just be GIGO . I dont dispute the mechanism arriving at the data . I go back to some Proff Mann`s emails , where he himself discusses how to " trick " the final result . Pretty good article from Washington Post online back in 09 - 10 , you can find it online where scientist are complaining that they are being" harrased " to release temp data . In the end we are talking about half of degree change . I can live with that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 denialist talking points: the hockey stick is wrong climate scientists have an agenda we were warmer during the middle ages sample size is too small urban heat island earth has cycles it's the sun ice cores and tree samples are inaccurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Those graphs suggest that in the past 2000 years, we haven't seen a positive global temperature anomaly until the last 100-200 years. I disagree with that assertion. This discussion really should be for the climate forum, but I'm posting this because I don't want the thread to be one-sided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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