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2012 April Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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Guest Pamela

it's thinly veiled denialist rhetoric. cherry picking data points and claiming "the warming has stopped!!@!#!@" is a pastime for this crowd.

That the globe has warmed over the last 100 years is not subject to debate; it is a demonstrable fact. Will such warming come to an end or continue on ad infinitum? This, like most future events, is still in question. Although the number of climate scientists who believe the former may be in the minority, the doubts they raise (or any data that could substantiate their claims) should not be subject to censor.

i have a feeling most on this forum wouldn't be in denial if they weren't such cold and snow mongers

There may well be an element of truth to your statement; since unabated warming would bring an eventual end to something we enjoy. But rather than call it denial...I'd characterize it as support for a more solar driven approach as the underlying cause for climate change.

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We're in a low solar cycle yet things seem to be accelerating. I dunno... I love cold and snow and I don't want to see our winters go away, but I'm becoming more worried that the rate of change is increasing.

This spring is obviously a huge anomaly, but we have had seriously warm springs several years in a row now... and April has warmed significantly long-term.

There is a lag of about 5-8 years with respect to the solar cycle effect on global temps in the troposphere. Considering the solar minimum occurred around 2007-08, we should just begin to see its impact this year, and going forward the next several years.

For me, the next 5-15 years will feature a major test for the AGW theory. The PDO is currently in its cold phase, solar activity is obviously the weakest its been in over a century, but the AMO still has another 5-10 years at least in its warm phase. Once we return to a regime similar to the 60s/70s in which both oceans are cool (-PDO/-AMO), in addition to the backdrop of low solar activity, I'm interested to see how global temps respond. Since 1998, we've seen a leveling off of global temps, prior to the PDO shift negative in the mid 2000s, and before the weak solar cycle 24 even initiated. So I expect global temps to be gradually cooling over the coming decade, given the factors we have in support of it.

If 10 years from now, global temps are as warm or warmer than today, I will concede that anthropogenic forcings account for the majority of climate change. Right now though, I remain convinced that natural factors have a bigger say (note, I do believe we are part of the equation, but not a major part in it).

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There is a lag of about 5-8 years with respect to the solar cycle effect on global temps in the troposphere. Considering the solar minimum occurred around 2007-08, we should just begin to see its impact this year, and going forward the next several years.

For me, the next 5-15 years will feature a major test for the AGW theory. The PDO is currently in its cold phase, solar activity is obviously the weakest its been in over a century, but the AMO still has another 5-10 years at least in its warm phase. Once we return to a regime similar to the 60s/70s in which both oceans are cool (-PDO/-AMO), in addition to the backdrop of low solar activity, I'm interested to see how global temps respond. Since 1998, we've seen a leveling off of global temps, prior to the PDO shift negative in the mid 2000s, and before the weak solar cycle 24 even initiated. So I expect global temps to be gradually cooling over the coming decade, given the factors we have in support of it.

If 10 years from now, global temps are as warm or warmer than today, I will concede that anthropogenic forcings account for the majority of climate change. Right now though, I remain convinced that natural factors have a bigger say (note, I do believe we are part of the equation, but not a major part in it).

Don't take that thinking to the climate change forum you will be considered a troll. :lol:

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Don't take that thinking to the climate change forum you will be considered a troll. :lol:

That's why I never post there, most people are close-minded and refuse to hear the other opinions. I'm more than willing to switch sides if I see convincing objective evidence to support a mainly anthropogenic induced scenario, but I don't.

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Guest Pamela

Sounds like the typical JB (or former) or Margusity subscriber.

Distaste for heat long precedes those two; I'm sure you are familiar with the colloquialism "I've been to Hell and Back"...for me, the journey was literal...though upon my arrival, Satan cast me out...proclaiming me to be too naughty.

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That's why I never post there, most people are close-minded and refuse to hear the other opinions. I'm more than willing to switch sides if I see convincing objective evidence to support a mainly anthropogenic induced scenario, but I don't.

Must be all liberal dems there,no conservative dems or republicans......lol

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Must be all liberal dems there,no conservative dems or republicans......lol

I hate that it even has to be political. Obviously everyone carries with them a slight bias, but it should be about debating the science. But of course if us "denialists" go into that forum, we're accused of discussing fake science, because they don't agree with it. "The science" is supposedly settled.

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Guest Pamela

In fairness that is just projected cold; it hasn't actually happened yet...and thus doesn't really help our argument at this time.

Although it certainly is nice to see and I hope it comes to pass...

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In fairness that is just projected cold; it hasn't actually happened yet...and thus doesn't really help our argument at this time.

I think JB has posted that JMA like 5 times since its cold winter forecast came out last week. I want it to verify as much as the next guy, but no doubt it will have to be a major reversal from where we're at now.

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In fairness that is just projected cold; it hasn't actually happened yet...and thus doesn't really help our argument at this time.

Lol he's sounds like he's claiming victory in some phony temperature war with a model that's projecting the weather 6-10 months from now. This guy has gone off the deep end.

Nothing would make me more happy than to see those maps verify but I NEVER take them seriously.

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That's why I never post there, most people are close-minded and refuse to hear the other opinions. I'm more than willing to switch sides if I see convincing objective evidence to support a mainly anthropogenic induced scenario, but I don't.

co2 is a greenhouse gas. humans have been increasing co2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

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co2 is a greenhouse gas. humans have been increasing co2 concentrations in the atmosphere.

http://en.wikipedia....Occam%27s_razor

While I do believe Co2 has contributed to the warming, I don't believe it is the primary cause. The fraction of our atmosphere that is Co2 is extremely small. It's not like we have a runaway greenhouse ala Venus, where 96% of their atmosphere is Co2, compared to our 0.03%.

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While I do believe Co2 has contributed to the warming, I don't believe it is the primary cause. The fraction of our atmosphere that is Co2 is extremely small. It's not like we have a runaway greenhouse ala Venus, where 96% of their atmosphere is Co2, compared to our 0.03%.

what is the primary cause (in your opinion)?

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what is the primary cause (in your opinion)?

See my post on the last page -- I think the next 10-15 years will reveal a lot with regards to anthropogenic influence. IMO among the main contributors are a combination of solar activity and oceanic cycles (i.e, PDO, AMO).

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he denies evolution so why does his opinion even matter?

I believe in evolution. Not sure where you pulled that.

But even still, that comment shows a lot about your character. Disregard someone's belief because you disagree w/ them on something completely unrelated to the topic at hand.

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Lol, yeah. like droughts have never ended with big storms. The greatest drought in history ended in 1966 with a hurricane moving up the coast.

I hope you know me and sundog are making fun of the people that keep saying it wont rain.

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Lol, yeah. like droughts have never ended with big storms. The greatest drought in history ended in 1966 with a hurricane moving up the coast.

its been a common theme epsecially in recent years. You can bet on it being wet/excessive wetness anytime we have any sort of dry period 'drought'.

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