pazzo83 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 I think it's pretty obvious we're warming at this point... NYC and DC are having increasingly similar springs. At the very least, March and April are warming quite rapidly. Yep. This spring has been very similar to the springs I grew up with in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 it's thinly veiled denialist rhetoric. cherry picking data points and claiming "the warming has stopped!!@!#!@" is a pastime for this crowd. That the globe has warmed over the last 100 years is not subject to debate; it is a demonstrable fact. Will such warming come to an end or continue on ad infinitum? This, like most future events, is still in question. Although the number of climate scientists who believe the former may be in the minority, the doubts they raise (or any data that could substantiate their claims) should not be subject to censor. i have a feeling most on this forum wouldn't be in denial if they weren't such cold and snow mongers There may well be an element of truth to your statement; since unabated warming would bring an eventual end to something we enjoy. But rather than call it denial...I'd characterize it as support for a more solar driven approach as the underlying cause for climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 We're in a low solar cycle yet things seem to be accelerating. I dunno... I love cold and snow and I don't want to see our winters go away, but I'm becoming more worried that the rate of change is increasing. This spring is obviously a huge anomaly, but we have had seriously warm springs several years in a row now... and April has warmed significantly long-term. There is a lag of about 5-8 years with respect to the solar cycle effect on global temps in the troposphere. Considering the solar minimum occurred around 2007-08, we should just begin to see its impact this year, and going forward the next several years. For me, the next 5-15 years will feature a major test for the AGW theory. The PDO is currently in its cold phase, solar activity is obviously the weakest its been in over a century, but the AMO still has another 5-10 years at least in its warm phase. Once we return to a regime similar to the 60s/70s in which both oceans are cool (-PDO/-AMO), in addition to the backdrop of low solar activity, I'm interested to see how global temps respond. Since 1998, we've seen a leveling off of global temps, prior to the PDO shift negative in the mid 2000s, and before the weak solar cycle 24 even initiated. So I expect global temps to be gradually cooling over the coming decade, given the factors we have in support of it. If 10 years from now, global temps are as warm or warmer than today, I will concede that anthropogenic forcings account for the majority of climate change. Right now though, I remain convinced that natural factors have a bigger say (note, I do believe we are part of the equation, but not a major part in it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 i have a feeling most on this forum wouldn't be in denial if they weren't such cold and snow mongers Sounds like the typical JB (or former) or Margusity subscriber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 There is a lag of about 5-8 years with respect to the solar cycle effect on global temps in the troposphere. Considering the solar minimum occurred around 2007-08, we should just begin to see its impact this year, and going forward the next several years. For me, the next 5-15 years will feature a major test for the AGW theory. The PDO is currently in its cold phase, solar activity is obviously the weakest its been in over a century, but the AMO still has another 5-10 years at least in its warm phase. Once we return to a regime similar to the 60s/70s in which both oceans are cool (-PDO/-AMO), in addition to the backdrop of low solar activity, I'm interested to see how global temps respond. Since 1998, we've seen a leveling off of global temps, prior to the PDO shift negative in the mid 2000s, and before the weak solar cycle 24 even initiated. So I expect global temps to be gradually cooling over the coming decade, given the factors we have in support of it. If 10 years from now, global temps are as warm or warmer than today, I will concede that anthropogenic forcings account for the majority of climate change. Right now though, I remain convinced that natural factors have a bigger say (note, I do believe we are part of the equation, but not a major part in it). Don't take that thinking to the climate change forum you will be considered a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Don't take that thinking to the climate change forum you will be considered a troll. That's why I never post there, most people are close-minded and refuse to hear the other opinions. I'm more than willing to switch sides if I see convincing objective evidence to support a mainly anthropogenic induced scenario, but I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Sounds like the typical JB (or former) or Margusity subscriber. Distaste for heat long precedes those two; I'm sure you are familiar with the colloquialism "I've been to Hell and Back"...for me, the journey was literal...though upon my arrival, Satan cast me out...proclaiming me to be too naughty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 That's why I never post there, most people are close-minded and refuse to hear the other opinions. I'm more than willing to switch sides if I see convincing objective evidence to support a mainly anthropogenic induced scenario, but I don't. Must be all liberal dems there,no conservative dems or republicans......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Must be all liberal dems there,no conservative dems or republicans......lol I hate that it even has to be political. Obviously everyone carries with them a slight bias, but it should be about debating the science. But of course if us "denialists" go into that forum, we're accused of discussing fake science, because they don't agree with it. "The science" is supposedly settled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 From Joe B: http://t.co/pHxsRieY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 From Joe B: http://t.co/pHxsRieY In fairness that is just projected cold; it hasn't actually happened yet...and thus doesn't really help our argument at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 In fairness that is just projected cold; it hasn't actually happened yet...and thus doesn't really help our argument at this time. Although it certainly is nice to see and I hope it comes to pass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 From Joe B: http://t.co/pHxsRieY I've always thought global warming leads to extremes so it wouldn't surprise me if next fall and winter are the complete opposite of this past fall and winter. Also the switch from La Nina to El Nino could be a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 In fairness that is just projected cold; it hasn't actually happened yet...and thus doesn't really help our argument at this time. I think JB has posted that JMA like 5 times since its cold winter forecast came out last week. I want it to verify as much as the next guy, but no doubt it will have to be a major reversal from where we're at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 In fairness that is just projected cold; it hasn't actually happened yet...and thus doesn't really help our argument at this time. Lol he's sounds like he's claiming victory in some phony temperature war with a model that's projecting the weather 6-10 months from now. This guy has gone off the deep end. Nothing would make me more happy than to see those maps verify but I NEVER take them seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Anyone know what the trick is to get the weather sticker from Wunderground to work at the bottom of my page? I have the code in there. I just don't know how to get it to display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 That's why I never post there, most people are close-minded and refuse to hear the other opinions. I'm more than willing to switch sides if I see convincing objective evidence to support a mainly anthropogenic induced scenario, but I don't. co2 is a greenhouse gas. humans have been increasing co2 concentrations in the atmosphere. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 co2 is a greenhouse gas. humans have been increasing co2 concentrations in the atmosphere. http://en.wikipedia....Occam%27s_razor While I do believe Co2 has contributed to the warming, I don't believe it is the primary cause. The fraction of our atmosphere that is Co2 is extremely small. It's not like we have a runaway greenhouse ala Venus, where 96% of their atmosphere is Co2, compared to our 0.03%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 While I do believe Co2 has contributed to the warming, I don't believe it is the primary cause. The fraction of our atmosphere that is Co2 is extremely small. It's not like we have a runaway greenhouse ala Venus, where 96% of their atmosphere is Co2, compared to our 0.03%. what is the primary cause (in your opinion)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 what is the primary cause (in your opinion)? he denies evolution so why does his opinion even matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 what is the primary cause (in your opinion)? See my post on the last page -- I think the next 10-15 years will reveal a lot with regards to anthropogenic influence. IMO among the main contributors are a combination of solar activity and oceanic cycles (i.e, PDO, AMO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 he denies evolution so why does his opinion even matter? I believe in evolution. Not sure where you pulled that. But even still, that comment shows a lot about your character. Disregard someone's belief because you disagree w/ them on something completely unrelated to the topic at hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 For any music fans, LEvon Helms passed today from The Band, a little song about rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2131939/UK-weather-Coldest-May-100-years-forecast-sizzling-summer.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Guys it's not raining. Enough of this rain talk. We're in a drought. Dry begets dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Guys it's not raining. Enough of this rain talk. We're in a drought. Dry begets dry. There cant be a powerful noreaster because all winter there hasn't been one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 There cant be a powerful noreaster because all winter there hasn't been one. Lol, yeah. like droughts have never ended with big storms. The greatest drought in history ended in 1966 with a hurricane moving up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Lol, yeah. like droughts have never ended with big storms. The greatest drought in history ended in 1966 with a hurricane moving up the coast. I hope you know me and sundog are making fun of the people that keep saying it wont rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Brian fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Lol, yeah. like droughts have never ended with big storms. The greatest drought in history ended in 1966 with a hurricane moving up the coast. its been a common theme epsecially in recent years. You can bet on it being wet/excessive wetness anytime we have any sort of dry period 'drought'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.