NEG NAO Posted April 7, 2012 Author Share Posted April 7, 2012 A nice surge of warmth coming after the trough lifts out. Looks like we could see 70's and potentially a few 80+ degree readings if we get enough sun before before the next front pushes through. you can't trust these models past 3 or 4 days - last week most were predicting a deep trough with much below normal temps and storminess for next week - and it looks like we will only have temps near normal or a couple of degrees below normal a couple days with only the risk of some showers but mainly fair weather......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Also as we head into summer the reservoirs upstate will begin to drop. Then Manhattanites will get worried because it will start to affect them Yup and then all the smiles those phony tv weathermen have right now will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 why are we talking to a 17 year old anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 why are we talking to a 17 year old anyway Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Through the first 6 days of April, the average temperature at Central Park is colder than it was in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 you can't trust these models past 3 or 4 days - last week most were predicting a deep trough with much below normal temps and storminess for next week - and it looks like we will only have temps near normal or a couple of degrees below normal a couple days with only the risk of some showers but mainly fair weather......... You can look for agreement with the ensembles for the 6-10 day with pretty decent success. The ensembles were not showing the big cutoff that the OP likes to in the 192-240 hr . When you see that the OP is on board with the ensembles for the warmth coming you know that they are both onto something. One of the best tools for the forecast beyond 120 hrs is the Euro ensemble mean. Most of the time you can run with the Euro OP 0-120 hrs and switch to the ensemble mean for 144-240 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 The 60 degree readings this hour beat guidance yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 why are we talking to a 17 year old anyway I didn't know there were people younger than me here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Another gorgeous day in Westchester, played an hour of tennis with a friend and then made some food for Passover/Easter dinner. I'm sitting at 60.0/28 with a brisk NW wind, feels incredible out here in Dobbs Ferry. This is always my favorite time of year around here with the abundance of ornamental trees showing their color...pears, magnolias, cherries, tulip trees, etc all blooming here in the suburbs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 you can't trust these models past 3 or 4 days - last week most were predicting a deep trough with much below normal temps and storminess for next week - and it looks like we will only have temps near normal or a couple of degrees below normal a couple days with only the risk of some showers but mainly fair weather......... That really depends on how you use the models past 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 8, 2012 Author Share Posted April 8, 2012 another mainly dry week coming up - the risk of some showers mid week - temps will average out within a degree or 2 of normal - looks like early next week about the 16th - 17th chance we get in to the 80's for a day possibly 2 then cools down again - doubt if we see any 90 degree temps in April this year............ http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Happy easter guys....anyone have a forecast for opening day on friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 8, 2012 Author Share Posted April 8, 2012 Happy easter guys....anyone have a forecast for opening day on friday? Yes - Angels 5 Yankees 2 Sunny - Game Time Temp 53 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 This is the best mt bike trail conditions we've had in years! It's so nice to have a dry start to the season for a change. You're right about the reservoirs though, a few of them up here are already at June/July levels. My well at 450 feet should be fine but if you're counting on stored water you may end up with problems. After how wet the last few years were we need a good wildfire season to burn out some of the excess fuel especially after last years big storms leaving so much on the ground. Exurbs and oil crisis? I'm fine with it because there won't be nearly as many cars in my way on my commute so I will be able to move at a nice smooth pace and get better mpg and not sitting in as much stop and go traffic will help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 65-70 highs today for NYC and NJ. 5-10 degrees above normal. Should see more above normal temps tomorrow. Then perhaps some slightly below normal temps for rest of the work week. Rising above normal again, next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 65-70 highs today for NYC and NJ. 5-10 degrees above normal. Should see more above normal temps tomorrow. Then perhaps some slightly below normal temps for rest of the work week. Rising above normal again, next weekend. This type of above normal is just fine with me. Beautiful weather today. Gorgeous. Why would anyone want anything else?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 windy out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 65-70 highs today for NYC and NJ. 5-10 degrees above normal. Should see more above normal temps tomorrow. Then perhaps some slightly below normal temps for rest of the work week. Rising above normal again, next weekend. Guidance is not looking as impressive with the warm up early next week although some spots might get close to 80 - one thing is becoming more and more obvious - no heat waves this April and even touching 90 is looking less likely later in the month............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 This was posted in the other thread: The Euro ensembles now showing 14C-16C 850mb temps, in the area, next Monday. That would support highs in the middle to upper 80s, with enough sunshine. I wouldn't be shocked if Newark hit 90. Especially if we don't see much rain, before that. Guidance is not looking as impressive with the warm up early next week although some spots might get close to 80 - one thing is becoming more and more obvious - no heat waves this April and even touching 90 is looking less likely later in the month............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Honestly- we don't need 85+ weather for it to be nice out.. 65-75 is perfect- It's APRIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Cloud deck moving in from the NNW. Edit: You can see it nicely on the northern horizon on the NYS Thruway Cam at Yonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chazman Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Have Met tickets for Wed. afternoon. Think they'll get the game in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I forgot what clouds look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Cloud deck moving in from the NNW. Edit: You can see it nicely on the northern horizon on the NYS Thruway Cam at Yonkers. Looks like dry air/subsidence, may be impeding the forward progress of it into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Decent winds by my location right now... took a walk and there were good sized branches covering the sidewalk. Getting some nice gusts as I type this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 This was posted in the other thread: The Euro ensembles now showing 14C-16C 850mb temps, in the area, next Monday. That would support highs in the middle to upper 80s, with enough sunshine. I wouldn't be shocked if Newark hit 90. Especially if we don't see much rain, before that. 12Z GFS does not agree and is not even close - until then still think 80 is briefly possible 15 and or 16th before the next cool down - 90 is a long shot and looking less likely this month .... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 90 is a long shot and looking less likely this month .... 90 F is a long shot in any April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 What I want right now is a good soaking rain to knock all this pollen out of the air. The past couple days w/ the strong wind, I've really noticed my allergies flaring up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 <Hoping for a 110 F day this summer and an air conditioner malfunction in the homes of those who revel (or at least publicly proclaim to) in those conditions.> You got what you wanted tiger...how does it taste? ...George Taylor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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