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2012 April Banter Thread


NEG NAO

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A nice surge of warmth coming after the trough lifts out. Looks like we could see 70's and potentially a few 80+ degree

readings if we get enough sun before before the next front pushes through.

you can't trust these models past 3 or 4 days - last week most were predicting a deep trough with much below normal temps and storminess for next week - and it looks like we will only have temps near normal or a couple of degrees below normal a couple days with only the risk of some showers but mainly fair weather.........

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Guest Pamela

Through the first 6 days of April, the average temperature at Central Park is colder than it was in March.

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you can't trust these models past 3 or 4 days - last week most were predicting a deep trough with much below normal temps and storminess for next week - and it looks like we will only have temps near normal or a couple of degrees below normal a couple days with only the risk of some showers but mainly fair weather.........

You can look for agreement with the ensembles for the 6-10 day with pretty decent success.

The ensembles were not showing the big cutoff that the OP likes to in the 192-240 hr . When

you see that the OP is on board with the ensembles for the warmth coming you know that

they are both onto something. One of the best tools for the forecast beyond 120 hrs

is the Euro ensemble mean. Most of the time you can run with the Euro OP 0-120 hrs

and switch to the ensemble mean for 144-240 hrs.

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Another gorgeous day in Westchester, played an hour of tennis with a friend and then made some food for Passover/Easter dinner. I'm sitting at 60.0/28 with a brisk NW wind, feels incredible out here in Dobbs Ferry. This is always my favorite time of year around here with the abundance of ornamental trees showing their color...pears, magnolias, cherries, tulip trees, etc all blooming here in the suburbs right now.

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you can't trust these models past 3 or 4 days - last week most were predicting a deep trough with much below normal temps and storminess for next week - and it looks like we will only have temps near normal or a couple of degrees below normal a couple days with only the risk of some showers but mainly fair weather.........

That really depends on how you use the models past 3-4 days. ;)

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another mainly dry week coming up - the risk of some showers mid week - temps will average out within a degree or 2 of normal - looks like early next week about the 16th - 17th chance we get in to the 80's for a day possibly 2 then cools down again - doubt if we see any 90 degree temps in April this year............

http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR

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This is the best mt bike trail conditions we've had in years! It's so nice to have a dry start to the season for a change.

You're right about the reservoirs though, a few of them up here are already at June/July levels. My well at 450 feet should be fine but if you're counting on stored water you may end up with problems. After how wet the last few years were we need a good wildfire season to burn out some of the excess fuel especially after last years big storms leaving so much on the ground.

Exurbs and oil crisis? I'm fine with it because there won't be nearly as many cars in my way on my commute so I will be able to move at a nice smooth pace and get better mpg and not sitting in as much stop and go traffic will help too.

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65-70 highs today for NYC and NJ. 5-10 degrees above normal. Should see more above normal temps tomorrow. Then perhaps some slightly below normal temps for rest of the work week. Rising above normal again, next weekend.

This type of above normal is just fine with me. Beautiful weather today. Gorgeous. Why would anyone want anything else??

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65-70 highs today for NYC and NJ. 5-10 degrees above normal. Should see more above normal temps tomorrow. Then perhaps some slightly below normal temps for rest of the work week. Rising above normal again, next weekend.

Guidance is not looking as impressive with the warm up early next week although some spots might get close to 80 - one thing is becoming more and more obvious - no heat waves this April and even touching 90 is looking less likely later in the month.............

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This was posted in the other thread: The Euro ensembles now showing 14C-16C 850mb temps, in the area, next Monday. That would support highs in the middle to upper 80s, with enough sunshine. I wouldn't be shocked if Newark hit 90. Especially if we don't see much rain, before that.

Guidance is not looking as impressive with the warm up early next week although some spots might get close to 80 - one thing is becoming more and more obvious - no heat waves this April and even touching 90 is looking less likely later in the month.............

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This was posted in the other thread: The Euro ensembles now showing 14C-16C 850mb temps, in the area, next Monday. That would support highs in the middle to upper 80s, with enough sunshine. I wouldn't be shocked if Newark hit 90. Especially if we don't see much rain, before that.

12Z GFS does not agree and is not even close - until then still think 80 is briefly possible 15 and or 16th before the next cool down - 90 is a long shot and looking less likely this month ....

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR

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Guest Pamela

90 is a long shot and looking less likely this month ....

90 F is a long shot in any April...

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Guest Pamela

<Hoping for a 110 F day this summer and an air conditioner malfunction in the homes of those who revel (or at least publicly proclaim to) in those conditions.>

You got what you wanted tiger...how does it taste?

...George Taylor

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