earthlight Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Good post. It's a game of probability with tornadoes. It just so happens that in this particular outbreak, the small area impacted was a populated one. If you've got 100 counties, 98 out of those 100 counties are fields, and 2/100 are populated areas, obviously the chances heavily favor a tornado cutting through a rural zone. But since this tornado beat the odds so to speak, everyone goes crazy like it's the worst outbreak ever, etc, needed a mod/high risk, when in reality, it wasn't a widespread severe weather event. The tornadoes were extremely locallized, but unfortunately they managed to hit the one area that really mattered. I think that has and always will be the problem with the public perception of the SPC and what they do. The way the SPC is set up is perfect..especially for us in the meteorology field. The staff there is the best of the best...and they issue forecasts with graphics that are as precise as possible without becoming overly and unnecessarily detailed at a local level. The graphics are probability derived..and converted from those probabilities into simplified risk levels. One of the issues is that the public sees "Slight Risk" as nothing...just like a slight chance of showers. I did a poll my freshman year of college on what various people on campus thought of a "slight risk of severe storms"...and that was the general idea...no big deal. But a slight risk for severe thunderstorms, in reality (and what we know as meteorology enthusiasts) means something entirely different. So when they have the Moderate Risk up and the bright red/orange banner on the website..it becomes an entirely different ballgame. That being said they can't ever start issuing tiny moderate risk areas just for individual cities and/or populated areas..it shouldn't work that way. The probabilities are what they are regardless of who lives where. The probabilities come from meteorology and a breakdown/forecasting technique of the people working at the time...not from the population of the city that so happens to be near the risk area. So I think there will always be this weird crossover between the public perception of SPC and what SPC really is when it comes to this issue specifically. We'll see small moderate risks issued in the middle of the plains...and I'm sure the issue will come up again (why was it issued this time etc etc)...when the fact of the matter is, I'm sure at that time the meteorological elements argued for a moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 I always thought the SPC should change 'slight risk' to 'low risk'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 To reply to earthlights post regarding the SPC, the dallas tornado was a freak occurence and the odds of that tornado hitting that area were slim, but slim left town when that tornado hit. SPC did a good job in my mind in not issueing any "risks" for that area as it was localized risks. One thing though is ive always thought like you said john starting with newscasters on tv get the word out regarding the true meaning of the levels of "RISK" that SPC issues. That study you did in college asking people what a slight risk meant to me that unless someone sees a tornado no one is really gonna take a storm seriously or threat for that matter. The news being that it really has the best chance of properly relaying the to the viewers about the SPC risk classification should before severe weather season kicks in for each part of the country explain what it means so people have a better perception when situations are issued by the NWS/SPC. I look at it this way more people watch the news local/nationally than look at indepth updates via NOAA/NWS, so utilize the news to better educate the general public. My opinion dont know if this has been said but its an opinion dont blast me for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Dont worry bxengine will save us all from wildfires... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 There's a half decent chance I'll be living in California next winter too...working at a non-meteorology related job with a friend. So there's the potential for me to not see a single flake of snow. ganja farmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Good post. It's a game of probability with tornadoes. It just so happens that in this particular outbreak, the small area impacted was a populated one. If you've got 100 counties, 98 out of those 100 counties are fields, and 2/100 are populated areas, obviously the chances heavily favor a tornado cutting through a rural zone. But since this tornado beat the odds so to speak, everyone goes crazy like it's the worst outbreak ever, etc, needed a mod/high risk, when in reality, it wasn't a widespread severe weather event. The tornadoes were extremely locallized, but unfortunately they managed to hit the one area that really mattered. Yeah. I admittedly didn't pay attention to national-level media in the aftermath of this event, but when I was out in Norman last summer for the May 24th outbreak (which killed 10 people and contained an EF5 and 2 EF4s within the OKC Metro area) I don't remember any intense coverage, seemingly because it didn't hit metro-OKC and instead hit small towns on the periphery. However, they were well on their way to hitting Norman and luckily lifted just a few miles short of doing so, but from a storm intensity level, those storms blew the Dallas tornadoes out of the water and, at least to my recollection, hardly got national media attention (unless I missed it, which is possible). Of course, it did occur just days after Joplin which I'm sure overshadowed the rural losses, however unfortunate that may be. The EF5 that hit El Reno was only 15-20 minutes from where the May 3, 1999 EF5 hit, one of the most famous tornadoes in U.S. history. Population density seems to be one of the main determining factors in how storms are even interpreted or remembered... Edited to add: In addition, I don't remember much talk about how climate change was responsible for any of those tornadoes as I have heard thrown around for the Dallas tornadoes. Let's be real - is it that much more anomalous for Dallas to get tornadoes than OK or KS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 I always thought the SPC should change 'slight risk' to 'low risk'. That's even worse, no? I'd change it to "elevated risk" if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 To reply to earthlights post regarding the SPC, the dallas tornado was a freak occurence and the odds of that tornado hitting that area were slim, but slim left town when that tornado hit. SPC did a good job in my mind in not issueing any "risks" for that area as it was localized risks. One thing though is ive always thought like you said john starting with newscasters on tv get the word out regarding the true meaning of the levels of "RISK" that SPC issues. That study you did in college asking people what a slight risk meant to me that unless someone sees a tornado no one is really gonna take a storm seriously or threat for that matter. The news being that it really has the best chance of properly relaying the to the viewers about the SPC risk classification should before severe weather season kicks in for each part of the country explain what it means so people have a better perception when situations are issued by the NWS/SPC. I look at it this way more people watch the news local/nationally than look at indepth updates via NOAA/NWS, so utilize the news to better educate the general public. My opinion dont know if this has been said but its an opinion dont blast me for it Just to be clear, the SPC did in fact issue "risks"... it was a slight risk that was borderline moderate (in addition to watches that were issued well ahead of time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 That's even worse, no? I'd change it to "elevated risk" if anything. Agree. I think the general public views "slight risk of severe weather" generally in the same vein as "winter weather advisory", something else many people don't take seriously. I would go elevated, moderate and high. The term "elevated" just sounds more threatening than slight. As for winter weather advisory, I can't really think of any other alternative. It's just unfortunate that some can't grasp that road conditions may be just as hazardous with an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Well slight as in slight chance of a shower means like a 10% chance it happens. Slight chance of severe weather is about as well as we can do in this part of the country. I think we are actually in a moderate risk maybe twice a year. Agree. I think the general public views "slight risk of severe weather" generally in the same vein as "winter weather advisory", something else many people don't take seriously. I would go elevated, moderate and high. The term "elevated" just sounds more threatening than slight. As for winter weather advisory, I can't really think of any other alternative. It's just unfortunate that some can't grasp that road conditions may be just as hazardous with an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Agree. I think the general public views "slight risk of severe weather" generally in the same vein as "winter weather advisory", something else many people don't take seriously. I would go elevated, moderate and high. The term "elevated" just sounds more threatening than slight. As for winter weather advisory, I can't really think of any other alternative. It's just unfortunate that some can't grasp that road conditions may be just as hazardous with an advisory. I used to like the term "snow advisory". We still have a freezing rain advisory. I hate the winter weather advisory wording, because the public does not understand it. WInter weather can be sunny, cold, and windy. At least with a snow advisory, people understand that it's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 I used to like the term "snow advisory". We still have a freezing rain advisory. I hate the winter weather advisory wording, because the public does not understand it. WInter weather can be sunny, cold, and windy. At least with a snow advisory, people understand that it's going to snow. Meh, I think the public understands what the forecast is. After all a "Winter Storm Warning", by your logic, could be understood by the public to be a heavy rainstorm, but I've never heard someone not realize it was for snow despite it not being a Snow Warning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Meh, I think the public understands what the forecast is. After all a "Winter Storm Warning", by your logic, could be understood by the public to be a heavy rainstorm, but I've never heard someone not realize it was for snow despite it not being a Snow Warning... No, it's a WINTER STORM, not a storm. A winter storm has snow and/or ice. The public gets this. Don't give the public too much credit. They really ARE more dumb than you think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 No, it's a WINTER STORM, not a storm. A winter storm has snow and/or ice. The public gets this. Don't give the public too much credit. They really ARE more dumb than you think! Winter storms don't contain rain? "Winter storm" implies snow just as much as "winter weather" does. After all, winter storms contain winter weather, don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 True. Its like when they put out coastal flood warnings like today. Has nothing to do with the weather or a storm just the tides/moon cycle. But if someone were to hear Coastal flood they probably would think we have a nor'easter coming up the coast. I used to like the term "snow advisory". We still have a freezing rain advisory. I hate the winter weather advisory wording, because the public does not understand it. WInter weather can be sunny, cold, and windy. At least with a snow advisory, people understand that it's going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 I agree that 'slight' should be changed to 'elevated'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 True. Its like when they put out coastal flood warnings like today. Has nothing to do with the weather or a storm just the tides/moon cycle. But if someone were to hear Coastal flood they probably would think we have a nor'easter coming up the coast. Pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Today looks to top off slightly cooler than yesterday. My high was 59F yesterday, low of 35F, so far this afternoon I'm at 55F. Was hoping for a freeze, but winds were busy last night, and tonight does not look calm either thanks to the offshore storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Today looks to top off slightly cooler than yesterday. My high was 59F yesterday, low of 35F, so far this afternoon I'm at 55F. Was hoping for a freeze, but winds were busy last night, and tonight does not look calm either thanks to the offshore storm. 58.0/27 on the local station here in Southern Westchester...HPN is a little cooler at 53F with gusty NW winds. HPN made it down to 31F last night so more rural areas of Westchester did record a freeze. The low dewpoints feel amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 58.0/27 on the local station here in Southern Westchester...HPN is a little cooler at 53F with gusty NW winds. HPN made it down to 31F last night so more rural areas of Westchester did record a freeze. The low dewpoints feel amazing. Westhampton was down to 24 F this morning and WSO Upton bottomed out at 28 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Incredible dryness for April -- dew points in the mid 10s right now w/ RH near 20%. Temps will be plummeting tonight. Just ideal weather IMO for this time of year; love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Incredible dryness for April -- dew points in the mid 10s right now w/ RH near 20%. Temps will be plummeting tonight. Just ideal weather IMO for this time of year; love it. Yeah I'm loving this cool weather. Last night dropped down to 27 F here. Today's high was 56 F. Just perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 That post reeked of envy. Definitely, I'd totally trade living in Manhattan for a desolate suburban wasteland. Love the exurbs, enjoy your oil crisis. Weather was fantastic today, I'd be happy if it stayed the same (maybe 5-10 degrees warmer) for the rest of the month. The dryness is great, although it does give me nosebleeds... a sacrifice I'm willing to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 1985 had a similar pattern for the first four months with only 6.23 in. of precip thru April at this station... the next three months had above normal precip. however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 A nice surge of warmth coming after the trough lifts out. Looks like we could see 70's and potentially a few 80+ degree readings if we get enough sun before before the next front pushes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Definitely, I'd totally trade living in Manhattan for a desolate suburban wasteland. Love the exurbs, enjoy your oil crisis. Weather was fantastic today, I'd be happy if it stayed the same (maybe 5-10 degrees warmer) for the rest of the month. The dryness is great, although it does give me nosebleeds... a sacrifice I'm willing to make. 60s, sunny, bone dry and a light breeze would be perfect. I'd take that well into May as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Definitely, I'd totally trade living in Manhattan for a desolate suburban wasteland. Love the exurbs, enjoy your oil crisis. Weather was fantastic today, I'd be happy if it stayed the same (maybe 5-10 degrees warmer) for the rest of the month. The dryness is great, although it does give me nosebleeds... a sacrifice I'm willing to make. What's so bad about not living in the urban wasteland that you call Manhatten? I hope we can get some rain in here soon. Wildfires are starting to become a serious threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Also as we head into summer the reservoirs upstate will begin to drop. Then Manhattanites will get worried because it will start to affect them What's so bad about not living in the urban wasteland that you call Manhatten? I hope we can get some rain in here soon. Wildfires are starting to become a serious threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 i wouldn't call manhattan an urban wasteland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 i think it was sarcasm i wouldn't call manhattan an urban wasteland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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