NCWX Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 This weekend is looking fun. NWS already has Greenville NC at 50% chance for t-storms and rain. We need it. Maybe it will finally get rid of all the pollen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Just had one heck of a strom. Picked up a guick half inch of rain and we had some high winds and hailed enough to be able to measure about a quarter inch of hail on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Looks like some good chances for rain coming up soon.Need it close to 4'' behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Have had training storms close or on us all afternoon. None have been that bad but we have picked up 1.12" so far with some more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Looks like that wall of rain in AL is finally making it's way eastward. I hope it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Pea , to a few marble sized hail with the cell that went through Simpsonville/greenville area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS INSTABILITY IS LIMITED BY A WARM NOSE ALOFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STRUGGLING TO REACH ONE INCH. AS SUCH WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY TO DEFINITE RANGE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT INSTABILITY WILL FURTHER ERODE WITH REMAINING THUNDER ENDING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Have had storms all evening and is currently raining now. Have picked up about and inch and a half. Pretty good for one afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 18, 2012 Author Share Posted April 18, 2012 Still underneath an amazing thunderstorm. Lots of CC/CG lightning, heavy rain, and had a ton of pea-sized hail a few minutes ago. It's finally winding down but unreal of what has happened. Power was off in the neighborhood after a nearby transformer went out for a while earlier. Now I'm hoping that the city electricians get down here soon because after one particular bolt struck, there is one part of our power line that's occasionally sparking and it seems to get worse when it doesn't rain hard enough... Getting worried about this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Really heavy rains all night long. Have picked up another half inch just tonight. Looks like the rain is setting in for the rest of the morning and today. Hope people who have not sen much rain get quit a bit this go round, If not this weekend looks promising with this cutoff low rolling through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 2.04" thru the gauge in Weaverville so far! Good soaking rain all night long. Gonna be a soggy couple days in the Mnts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 2.04" thru the gauge in Weaverville so far! Good soaking rain all night long. Gonna be a soggy couple days in the Mnts. No kidding it is still hammering down out there and if this weekend holds up then we may be looking at some localized flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 No kidding it is still hammering down out there and if this weekend holds up then we may be looking at some localized flooding. Still a good bit of moisture on radar to our S & SW. As for the weekend sure seems like some flooding is a good bet. A part of Gsp's long term from last night. AT LOWER LEVELS...A DEEP SRLY FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GULF WILL SET UP ON SAT AND INCREASE PRECIPITABLE WATER. A DEFORMATION ZONE MAY THEN SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING DEEP SOUTH LOW...AND POSSIBLY PIVOT ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE A SETUP FAVORING HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE MTNS. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD WRAP INTO THE SE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT AFTN...ALONG WITH DECENT SHEAR AS THE SRLY 850 MB JET ARRIVES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SE PART. INSTABILITY WILL BUBBLE UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SE HALF...BUT LIKELY WITHOUT THE ATTENDANT WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...NW FLOW MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH MON NIGHT. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER PROFILES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH MTN SNOW SHOWERS...BUT A MIX WILL BE ADVERTISED ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS. DRYING AND SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUE...BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW CLIMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Still a good bit of moisture on radar to our S & SW. As for the weekend sure seems like some flooding seems likely. A part of Gsp's long term from last night. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...NW FLOW MOISTURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND POSSIBLY LINGER THROUGH MON NIGHT. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER PROFILES WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANY HIGH MTN SNOW SHOWERS...BUT A MIX WILL BE ADVERTISED ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS. DRYING AND SHALLOW RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUE...BUT WITH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW CLIMO. Im def interested in seeing some spring snow. Last year on May 17th, I went up to the Richland Balsam Overlook on the pkwy at 6053' and took video of snow falling, while it was dry as a bone in the valley. Always nice to see snow late in the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Nothing really of note after getting missed a few times overnight. Have higher hopes for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 When it rain it pours... Pkwy area 3.4", Sylva 2.32", Barkers Creek 1.77", Glenville 1.42" and Cullowhee 1.34". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I had very heavy rain around midnight last night. Ended up with 1.14 inches overnight. More to come today... This weekend's system looks really interesting. Possible full phase of powerhouse ULL on the European model could produce wet snow showers in the mountains. Wow! Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 From severe weather to the possibility of snow in the mountains! I'm a bit excited about this ULL forecast by the models and what it can bring. The Euro decided to deepen the low quite a bit and run it up the Apps. If this occurs, snow showers will be possible in the higher elevations of NC, TN and VA. On the flip side, and a bit closer to home, the potential for a potent squall line is particularly interesting. The peninsula of Florida looks to see the worst of it as they are far enough away from the low and wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated tornado or two Saturday night. Of note, parts of the southeast could win the jackpot when it comes to rain! Others... Not so much. I have a fear/feeling we'll get dry slotted in southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama, or areas that see the squall line rumble through Saturday afternoon. It'll be interesting to track over the next few days. http://davidwarrenreese.blogspot.com/2012/04/umbrellas-time-to-shine.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Had several storm last evening and over night. So far 1.47" and it's still raining. Its about time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Appalachian snow and unseasonable cold on the way for the SE US next week? Folks, The 12Z Mon. Euro is, once again, a very cold run for this time of year with the 0C 850 line again getting down into S GA (4/23 and 4/24) similar to yesterday's quite cold 12Z run. Per this run, the entire period of next Sun.-Wed (4/22-5) is looking quite chilly for late April. If that's not enough about which to get excited, the model has accumulating snow for WNC and ETN on 4/22-3, very similar to the 0Z Euro's snow! Could we really be facing at least a weak analog of the incredible 4/25/1910 SE US snow and record cold that followed a very warm March of 1910? Stay tuned to this BB for further updates as they become available. Historic snow/cold analog of 4/25/1910 back in play! Folks, yep, as mentioned by Met1985 and Candy, it's baaaaaack! The 0Z Wed Euro, indeed, brought back the big Appalachian snow for the 3rd run of the last 5 and the big SE US cold snap for the 4th run of the last 6 after a two run break. What is the expression, a watched Doc never produces snow? Well, I was fast asleep during this most recent release. Moreover, this run has, by far, the heaviest snowfall of any run to date on 4/23-24. It puts down nearly 2" at GSP and Knoxville, an amazing ~6" at Asheville, and an historic near 12-14" at Johnson City, TN!! Please stay tuned to this BB for more updates as they become available! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Last measurable rain here was April 6th. Hoping for anything tonight and over the weekend. Very dry this side of Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 1.12" IMBY so far here in Dahlonega. Much needed as April as been way below normal so far...and still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 .5 amd some small hail yesterday, 1.8" last night and this AM so far. Yay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 .5" total - ugh. Didn't get any storms yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Rain is finally coming to a end. 2.51 thru the gauge in Weaverville. A great storm for sure. Not gonna be fun mowing for a couple weeks after this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I am NOT saying this will happen. Just pointing out a possible analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Historic snow/cold analog of 4/25/1910 back in play! Folks, yep, as mentioned by Met1985 and Candy, it's baaaaaack! The 0Z Wed Euro, indeed, brought back the big Appalachian snow for the 3rd run of the last 5 and the big SE US cold snap for the 4th run of the last 6 after a two run break. What is the expression, a watched Doc never produces snow? Well, I was fast asleep during this most recent release. Moreover, this run has, by far, the heaviest snowfall of any run to date on 4/23-24. It puts down nearly 2" at GSP and Knoxville, an amazing ~6" at Asheville, and an historic near 12-14" at Johnson City, TN!! Please stay tuned to this BB for more updates as they become available! I'm sure a lot will depend on what time of day it snows. It's gonna be hard to get a lot of accumulating snow with a warm ground and a high sun angle ( about the same sun angle as you see in August). Also, with temps 65-70 as forecast for Knoxville next Mon and Tues it will be hard to get snow to stick with those kind of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 This cutoff low really does wrap a nice cold core as it moves Northward. It'd be quite interesting to see if Euro's future runs amplify this even more-so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I'm sure a lot will depend on what time of day it snows. It's gonna be hard to get a lot of accumulating snow with a warm ground and a high sun angle ( about the same sun angle as you see in August). Also, with temps 65-70 as forecast for Knoxville next Mon and Tues it will be hard to get snow to stick with those kind of temps. Temps were similar during the winter season and snow accumulated. Agree with the sun angle part. It won't stick around over a day or two if it were to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 I thought this HPC Discussion from this morning was pretty interesting. Really explains the setup and possible outcomes of this whole thing: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1039 AM EDT WED APR 18 2012 VALID 12Z SUN APR 22 2012 - 12Z WED APR 25 2012 ...GULF/EAST COAST CYCLONE TO BRING WET/POTENTIALLY SNOWY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST... THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED TO START OUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE GULF COAST AT THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH AND AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE SITUATION CHANGES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GUIDANCE FINALLY AGREES TO SPLIT OFF A DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE BASE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH SOUTH OF THE 40TH PARALLEL AS THE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS...TIMING/STREAM DOMINANCE REMAIN AN ISSUE WITH THE DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE GULF LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THESE DIFFERENCES LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AMPLIFYING AN UPPER TROUGH AS IT DIGS TOWARDS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACKING A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. AFTER EARLY SUNDAY...THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DIVERGE. OVERALL...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/GFS PARALLEL/GEFS MEAN ARE ON THE FASTER SIDE OF MODEL SPREAD WITH LIFTING THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW NORTHWARD...AND THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFER SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTIONS. THIS RESULTS IN LARGE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE 00Z GFS IS QUICKEST/FARTHEST EAST WITH THE TRACK...MOVING THE DEEP CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS THE CYCLONE INLAND/WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE 00 UKMET SUPPORTS THE SLOWER ECMWF...WHILE THE 00Z CMC/00Z GFS PARALLEL SUPPORT THE FASTER GFS. THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO OFFER THE BEST COMPROMISE AMONG CURRENT MODEL DIFFERENCES...AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW DECENT CLUSTERING WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS LED TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER DAY 4...THE FORECAST RELIED HEAVILY ON THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THIS HAD LITTLE IMPACT TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR DAYS 3-4...BUT RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING RAINS THROUGH THE EAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-6 INCHES POSSIBLE. SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA/PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK WITH THIS SYSTEM...THOUGH SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER DOWN THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY ONWARD AS ONSHORE FLOW RESUMES. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ROTH/GERHARDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.