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April Observations and Discussion


Gastonwxman

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Nice band of thundershowers and storms developed across Charlotte last night. I landed at the airport a little before 10, right as I left heavy rain started. One of those storms where you ran in and out of heavy rain in just a few hundred feet. I didn't get as much rain at the house as other places, but still a nice spring thundershower to wind out the night.

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had less than .5" of rain and a ton of pollen is still around (and all over the driveway lol). at least the lightning show last evening was pretty impressive. i hope that this summer is at least not as hot as the last few and we actually get more of the usual afternoon/evening thunderstorms

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And as soon as I say that, a severe thunderstorm watch is issued until 10:00 tonight.

The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch

140 in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following

areas

In North Carolina this watch includes 31 counties

In central North Carolina

Alamance Anson Chatham

Cumberland Davidson Durham

Edgecombe Forsyth Franklin

Granville Guilford Halifax

Harnett Hoke Johnston

Lee Montgomery Moore

Nash Orange Person

Randolph Richmond Sampson

Scotland Stanly Vance

Wake Warren Wayne

Wilson

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And as soon as I say that, a severe thunderstorm watch is issued until 10:00 tonight.

The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch

140 in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following

areas

In North Carolina this watch includes 31 counties

In central North Carolina

Alamance Anson Chatham

Cumberland Davidson Durham

Edgecombe Forsyth Franklin

Granville Guilford Halifax

Harnett Hoke Johnston

Lee Montgomery Moore

Nash Orange Person

Randolph Richmond Sampson

Scotland Stanly Vance

Wake Warren Wayne

Wilson

I just finished mowing my grass in case it rains for the next three days so bring it on.

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While we bask in the 80's today, NWS Raleigh reminds us of what several have been talking about for some time now...

THE FROST AND POSSIBLY FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL RISE FOR NEXT WEEK

GIVEN THIS CRITICAL PATTERN CHANGE WHICH ALLOWS MODIFIED POLAR AIR

TO SURGE INTO THE REGION. THE EXACT NIGHTS THAT WILL BE CRITICAL

NIGHTS FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ARE TOO EARLY TO PIN-DOWN AT THIS

TIME DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC FEATURES THAT

WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER... THIS

COOL DOWN COMES AT A CRITICAL TIME FOR OUR AGRICULTURAL AND OTHER

WEATHER PARTNERS THAT HAVE BEGUN SPRING PLANTINGS ETC... PREPARATIONS

SHOULD BE MADE NOW FOR THE EXPECTED COLD SPELL NEXT WEEK.

THE INCREASING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT... AND ALSO FOR

NEXT WEEK WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

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I know the night is still young, but with only picking up almost .02" in that initial 'big' band of showers, I seriously doubt we're going to get the predicted ¼" to ½" overnight. Friday night is looking to be rather raw around here for April, if the forecast holds true... low around 36 with gusts in the low 20mph range.

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.LONG TERM...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS IN FULL

FORCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THERE WILL BE BREEZY NELY WINDS

ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER GA/ERN TN. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY

SKIES TEMPS WILL BE IN LOW/MID 70S MOST ZONES WITH UPR 70S WEST OF

I-75 AND PSBLY 60S ALONG SE GA COAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL DOWNRIGHT CHILLY AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD

OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE BELOW CLIMO...IN

MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE. AFTER A CHILLY START...CHAMBER OF

COMMERCE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY

SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AOB NORMAL... MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR

80 OVER THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRIFT

SOUTH CUTTING OFF THE CAA AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MILDER.

i prefer the hot weather. Low of 43 Saturday night. Yeah thats gonna feel chilly.

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Would it be ok to plant shrubs and bushes, but not just flowering plants or vegies?

It would have to get below 28 degrees to keep them from blooming this year. It will not kill the shrub at all. We landscaped year round and have planted shrubs at 15 degrees in the dead of winter. It is better to plant them when cold than when its hot.

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CAE....... :wub:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

PRESSURE RISES WERE OCCURRING BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN

NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING SUPPORTING THE MODEL FORECAST OF THE

FRONT CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. EXPECT IT WILL EXTEND EAST-

WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WHICH SHOULD HELP

SUPPORT SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY

THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE NAM APPEARED CORRECT

FORECASTING STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH TOTAL TOTALS NEAR

57. THIS STRONG INSTABILITY SUPPORTS SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH SOME

OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE INSTABILITY WITH WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS

NEAR 9000 FEET ALSO SUPPORTS DAMAGING HAIL. SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR

PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH H85 WINDS EXPECTED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

HOWEVER...SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT PLUS THE STRONG

INSTABILITY COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT TORNADOES. WE HAVE PLACED

ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INCLUDED

POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. THE HIGH

RESOLUTION WRF SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST-WEST

ORIENTED BACKDOOR FRONT AROUND 300 PM. THE MODEL ALSO SHOWED A

LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT

APPEARED TO BE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE

TROUGH. THIS APPEARED REASONABLE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT

SHOULD BE MAINLY BETWEEN 300 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL

ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO

THE AREA. HOWEVER...PREVIOUS CONVECTION PLUS DIURNAL COOLING

SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SO THE SEVERE WEATHER

THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO THE

POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER

VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 OF AN INCH AND POSSIBLE TRAINING ALONG

THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. WE MAINLY FOLLOWED THE NAM AND FORECASTED

GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. THE GFS INDICATED

LESS RAINFALL AND THE SREF GUIDANCE HAD A VERY HIGH SPREAD WITH

AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR 2 INCHES.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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Looks like a new watch had to be advertised:

ww0146_radar_big.gif

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 146

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

150 PM EDT THU APR 5 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN GEORGIA

WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

SOUTH CAROLINA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL

900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF

COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD/SWWD ACROSS THE REGION. RUC OBJECTIVE

ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY

UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG OWING TO STRONG DAYTIME

HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. WHEN COUPLED WITH 30-40 KT OF

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SETUP WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL AND MARGINAL

SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS

AND LARGE HAIL.

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Northern part of the line breaking up, as I suspected it might. The past two nights heavy t-storms missed my house by a mile of two and it looks like I may whiff this afternoon. The screw job season here is starting early..... :axe:

42 drops of rain from this event. I did cash in with .59" from last night though so I should feel fortunate.

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