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April Observations and Discussion


Gastonwxman

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.21 out of round 2 for a total of 1.53 so far round 3 is now approaching.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NCC021-087-115-261945-

/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0113.120426T1829Z-120426T1945Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

229 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

LAKE JUNALUSKA...OR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYNESVILLE...AND MOVING

EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...

CANTON.

CRUSO.

I-26 AT I-40.

AVERY CREEK.

BILTMORE FOREST.

FAIRVIEW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING OF DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. DO NOT

DRIVE THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER IS FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

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Got 1.32" from the storms this am. Round 2 is on the doorstep as I type. April is very quickly closing in on 6" of rain for Weaverville.

Ya Don same here. Got woke up to this current storm. Had heavy heavy rain some more hail. Lightning hitting very close again. Woke me up even with ear plugs in. Ya we are approaching about 2 inches here just for today. Just amazing how wet Western North Carolina is along the mountains but East is very dry. Also a thing that drives me crazy is when WLOS is when they say Asheville is like 2 inches below normal and im like no freaking way!

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Looks like there are more cells developing in TN that may affect Haywood and North Jackson counties. As i type there is thunder over the mountain again. What a day. I don't think we will hit 73 degrees today. Current temp is 60 degrees. Hey Don i saw were there was some frees uprooted in the mountains this morning.

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We need to keep an eye on Central and Eastern Kentucky over the next 3-6 hours for re-development. Models indicate that we could be in the pipeline again later this evening and overnight.

Just noticed that to. Looks like maybe another squall line developing. There is another Sever thunder storm watch and warnings for those cells. That could take the same rout as the squall line did this morning.

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These cells in KY really need to watched now that there are Tornado warning issued for some of the storms. Also seems like a train of storms one right after another. Getting more lightning now and has almost rained non stop the last several hours. Have noticed flood watches out for Eastern TN near Gatlinburg. Another heavy cell over the house. More very heavy rain and hail. If we keep getting this training of storms we may have some flash flooding issues in Haywood county. We have almost reached 3 inches of rain just today.

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Pretty dangerous storm just east of Asheville, near Black Mountain NC.

Good chance for large hail with it.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NCC021-111-161-270030-

/O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0124.120426T2323Z-120427T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

723 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

SOUTHERN MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

FAIRVIEW...OR 12 MILES EAST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...AND MOVING EAST

AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...

OLD FORT.

THERMAL CITY AND GLENWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY LARGE HAIL DRIVEN BY STRONG WINDS POSES A SERIOUS THREAT OF

INJURY. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOMES AND VEHICLES WILL ALSO OCCUR. SEEK

SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

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Finally, a day without rain!

Stop complaining......It has rained twice here in 2 months......every system has left us completely dry here except for 2 evenings of an isolated thunderstorm that happened to clip our area. If something doesn't change, this summer is gonna be just as brutal as last as well as the water & power bills.

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Wow, I just noticed that Savannah had a high yesterday (4/26) of 90 that was just two from the record of 92 and which follows by two days (4/24) having a low of 40 that was just two from the record low. Twos are wild lol. There's nothing boring about this wx to me although I don't like the early heat. However, I loved the 40 low for sure!

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Mesoscale Discussion 606 < Previous MD mcd0606.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0142 PM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN GA...WRN AND CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271842Z - 272045Z

A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE

THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND A WW MAY BE NEEDED.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS NERN GA

MOVING EWD INTO WRN SC. THESE SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ALONG

A WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE PERTURBATION IN

THE WLY FLOW ALOFT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD

OF THIS BAND WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF

FAR ERN GA AND WRN/CNTRL SC. LATEST SURFACE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS

INDICATES SBCAPE VALUES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. INCREASED

SFC HEATING AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN

SBCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY...EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGH ENOUGH /30 TO 40 KTS/

FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. CONSEQUENTLY...A MULTICELL CLUSTER

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND...GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL

LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT DCAPE VALUES AOA 900 J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS

IS POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..MOSIER.. 04/27/2012

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

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Lol just read were Haywood and Buncombe counties have a special weather statement about the cells that are rapidly developing that produce mothball size hail and winds 30 to 40 mph. Thunder is getting stronger and turning very dark again. May see 3inches of rain in one day.

I haven't had three inches of rain in a single month this year. 2.33 in March was my best month. April is turning out to be the worst. 1.72 at this point and not looking for much if any between now and the 30th.

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Hearing Thunder in my area now.....

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

325 PM EDT Friday Apr 27 2012

Of more importance in the near-term...moderately unstable conditions

have developed along and south of the front where sb-cape values are

eclipsing 1500 j/kg and lifted indices have fallen below -4. There

is a waning convective cap at 800 mb that will break with the

arrival of a weak upper disturbance now crossing the upper Savannah

River valley. Much of our model guidance is forecasting an mesoscale convective system to

develop across South Carolina in the next 1-2 hours...propagating

east to the coast by 6-8 PM this evening. Sufficient bulk shear

exists for multicell storm organization. Steep middle-level lapse rates

is generating 500 j/kg of cape throughout the -10c to -30c layer

(roughly 18000-27000 feet above ground level today)...suggesting large hail could be

a threat. Cold pool effects will further increase the potential for

damaging wind gusts once the mesoscale convective system achieves "critical mass." Storm Prediction Center has

already given notice in their most recent mesoscale discussion that

a watch is likely across central South Carolina...which may end up

including a portion of the SC Pee Dee.

The greatest potential for severe weather should end after 8

PM...with more in the way of showers (and less in the way of

thunderstorms) expected overnight. The approach of another upper

disturbance after midnight should induce a surface wave of low

pressure to develop along the stalled front. Cross-frontal flow

above the boundary layer could create more showers or even just a

period of stratiform rain affecting mainly southeast North Carolina

after midnight...moving off the coast around daybreak Saturday. Lows

tonight should range from around 60 in the north to the middle 60s in

the south.

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Stop complaining......It has rained twice here in 2 months......every system has left us completely dry here except for 2 evenings of an isolated thunderstorm that happened to clip our area. If something doesn't change, this summer is gonna be just as brutal as last as well as the water & power bills.

I know right. The only time it rained this month was 4/21 and last month on 3/3. The only saving grace was that those rainfalls brought a months worth of rain in 1 day. Look at the area of exceptional drought spreading over Georgia. Texas has improved significantly.

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I know right. The only time it rained this month was 4/21 and last month on 3/3. The only saving grace was that those rainfalls brought a months worth of rain in 1 day. Look at the area of exceptional drought spreading over Georgia. Texas has improved significantly.

Another repeat performance tonight as well......storms developing but no dice here....got just enough of a shower to wet the ground....looks like not much chance in the next 7 days either unless something redevelops tonight. The north Georgia storm shield is still alive and well (popcorn tstorms need not apply, where the heck are the "systems" that bring storms?) It has been a while.

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Finally reached 90 for the first time this year. Currently 90 outside.

I just hope the rain you got the other day won't be the best you'll get all summer, but it sure isn't looking good. To get out of this drought you and I need to get rain, after rain, after rain. I had a great few weeks earlier in the spring with lots of rain from trains right over head, but you can't rely on the train schedule when it comes to rain. I see no reason the think the drought is ending when it rains a bunch then dries up for far longer. The lack of drenching, slow gulf lows has been telling for the midrange past. A hot, dry summer, followed by a hot, dry winter, followed by a few wet weeks in an otherwise hot, dry spring (with four days of cool), just ain't going to get it, lol. I've seen some extremes of dry.... I'm ready for another Alberto to juice up the rain extreme :) T

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