HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT... MDL SOLNS AGREE UPON THE CLIPPER SYS FOR THE PD ALBEIT SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL RESIDE. WHILE DYNAMICS AND DEEP LYR ASCENT ARE APPARENT...THE EXACT FOCUS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SHRTWV DISTURBANCE ALONG THE AMPLIFIED MID-LATITUDE THERMAL AXIS TRAVELS SEWD INTO UPSTATE NY BY 02/0Z BY WHICH TIME LIKELY THE OH RVR VLY RGN WILL BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. AM LIKENED TO THE 31/0Z GFS AND 30/12Z ECMWF. FEEL THE BEST DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRNT WILL BE SW OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE OH RVR VLY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. SHOULD OUR PRESENT SYS BE ANY INDICATION...THE ANTICIPATION IS THAT ANTICIPATED CONVECTION OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED RGN WILL DEPRIVE THE BETTER MOISTURE FROM NEW ENGLAND AND KEEP PRECIP AMOUNTS LGT. ALSO KEEP IN MIND...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ITSELF IS MORE CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN. SURELY THERE WILL BE ATTENDANT BROAD FORCING WITH THE SFC LOW PRES MOVING SE THRU THE TRI-STATE RGN AND S OF NEW ENGLAND...WITH SLY ONSHORE FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD SWEEPING ATLANTIC MOISTURE THRU THE INTERIOR...SO LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED. FCST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A ABOVE-FRZG THERMAL AXIS ADVECTED NEWD AHEAD OF THE SYS WILL KEEP PRECIP MAINLY RAIN. CANT DISAGREE AS THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SFC LOW IS LIKELY NOT TO EFFECTIVELY DRAG COLDER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA HIGH PRES SWD OVER NEW ENGLAND /AND AGAIN...MARCH AND WINTER PRIOR HAVE BEEN ABNORMALLY ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR TEMPS/. MOST OF THE ENERGY IS OFFSHORE BY MON MORN WITH N/NW FLOW. LIKELY COLD POOL ALOFT AND NLY FETCH OFF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN OCEAN-EFFECT STRATOCU AND SHOWERS ALONG THE E SHORES. At least we can get a bit of precip, even if it is not white... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 NAM has a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 GFS says "meh" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Looks warm at the surface and up to 925mb on BOS/ORH soundings. 12z GFS also backs off the cold in the longer range...near normal to above normal temperatures. What a surprise. Spring is here folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Looks warm at the surface and up to 925mb on BOS/ORH soundings. 12z GFS also backs off the cold in the longer range...near normal to above normal temperatures. What a surprise. Spring is here folks. It doesn't look terribly warm IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Yah...mostly, if not all, rain. Maybe a few flakes at higher spots. April is so fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Euro looks better. GFS would be interesting. NAM is worse than the NGM ever was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Probably a coating deal above 1000'. Doesn't look overly interesting with the vortmax heading over or north of SNE. Also, basically anything between 12z and 0z won't amount to anything as seen today with the April sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Probably a coating deal above 1000'. Doesn't look overly interesting with the vortmax heading over or north of SNE. Also, basically anything between 12z and 0z won't amount to anything as seen today with the April sun. Yeah, it has to come down at a good clip to matter...and it won't But it would be good to record a trace for a new month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 NAM would def be a 2-4 or 3-5 hills deal..but it's wrong and it's the NAM..Who cares what the GFS shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 NAM would def be a 2-4 or 3-5 hills deal..but it's wrong and it's the NAM..Who cares what the GFS shows Yeah maybe at like 3500' and even that is iffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 NAM would def be a 2-4 or 3-5 hills deal..but it's wrong and it's the NAM..Who cares what the GFS shows Not when the vort max goes over your head. Southerly flow up to that vort max means pretty warm BL even at 1000'. I mean the NAM's 850's for your hood are -2C during the heart of the 'event'. Transfer that down to the surface moist adiabatically your looking at 3C or 38F even up your way. Precip rates won't be impressive either (maybe .15" in 3hrs? per NAM) and that just adds to the many reasons why this sadly will not be a big deal for anyone. As you said, the NAM is wrong and will change in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Holy ****e at the 18z Nam Gfs ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 NAM tends to offer boatloads of snow. Why? I dunno Euro seems more realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 lol nam hits ct hard, dumps on blizz, too bad its the worst model on the planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 NAM tends to offer boatloads of snow. Why? I dunno Euro seems more realistic Careful on the surface temps...still looks warm for ORH at 36 on the 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The 18z NAM would probably be the best outcome for those above 1000' as 0.5" LWE falls in 6 hours with mid levels below freezing from 0z to 6z. Even this would probably only equate to 2-4" in higher spots as the surface is still pretty warm. 850's are still only -4C (surface probably 1-2C) up near Kev's place. Unless the overdone qpf that the NAM is known for comes to fruition, this still isn't all that special IMO... Even if this did happen exactly like the 18z NAM, it'd be a 2-4" deal with valleys getting maybe 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 lol nam hits ct hard, dumps on blizz, too bad its the worst model on the planet. Just trash. Absolute POS. euro sadly will be right again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Just trash. Absolute POS. euro sadly will be right again Lol yep probably. Probably just a light mix for everyone tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 I have had a gut feeling about this event tomorrow night for a couple days now, not sure why. 2-4 for Kevin and Will, 1-3 for ginx and scooter. Love how this thing dives south and strengthens as it gets its feet wet. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 <p> I have had a gut feeling about this event tomorrow night for a couple days now, not sure why. 2-4 for Kevin and Will, 1-3 for ginx and scooter. Love how this thing dives south and strengthens as it gets its feet wet. Time will tell. WAY WAY WAY too warm at BL. Torched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 I have had a gut feeling about this event tomorrow night for a couple days now, not sure why. 2-4 for Kevin and Will, 1-3 for ginx and scooter. Love how this thing dives south and strengthens as it gets its feet wet. Time will tell. Don't you think surface temps will be an issue? Its interesting how the NAM has amped up the QPF in the past couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Im sure I am wrong, just a feeling, precip intensity can overcome a lot, lots of graupel around the nyc metro with temps near 50, but precip rates were excellent. Check out sim radar as it explodes last minute of ct. Would love to see my friends get snow, I think this is the last potential hurrah for those outside the mtns. Looks like spring takes hold again pretty quickly mid week. April might end up torch torch torching away.'The slush balls just did not cut it for me last night at 130 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The one difference about tomorrow night is the winds will veer DUE north when that happens things should crash fairly quickly, if the system is as robust as the SCAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The 18z NAM would probably be the best outcome for those above 1000' as 0.5" LWE falls in 6 hours with mid levels below freezing from 0z to 6z. Even this would probably only equate to 2-4" in higher spots as the surface is still pretty warm. 850's are still only -4C (surface probably 1-2C) up near Kev's place. Unless the overdone qpf that the NAM is known for comes to fruition, this still isn't all that special IMO... Even if this did happen exactly like the 18z NAM, it'd be a 2-4" deal with valleys getting maybe 1-2". Where you seeing 1/2" of QPF in 6 hours? I dunno, given what happened this morning during the coldest time of the day... this time of year I'd feel better about any snow below 1,000ft with H85s of colder than -4C... more like -6C unless its really coming down. I think even the NAM is only 1-2" hill tops with mangled flakes maybe mixed in with the rain in the valleys. Soundings look warm at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 BOX is dead on with the cyclogenesis being best near Nova Scotia all winter.Clippers have not gone boom all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 I'll go 1-3" IMBY tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 BOX is dead on with the cyclogenesis being best near Nova Scotia all winter.Clippers have not gone boom all year. Euro weenie maps seem to show that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 <p> I'll go 1-3" IMBY tomorrow night. Skiing is awesome at SR right now and that will only add to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 <p> Euro weenie maps seem to show that as well Would have been an amazing spring if the trough was 5 degrees west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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