Hoosier Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Looks like there could be some severe threats in this timeframe. The day 3/Monday into Tuesday threat looks interesting to me. It doesn't have a slight risk right now but I think it will later. Shear magnitudes aren't all that great on the models but mid level lapse rates are very good and there is quite a bit of instability (12z NAM has MUCAPE of 2000-2500+ in parts of IL/IN at 6z Tuesday). Looks like at least a pretty decent hail threat in the Monday/Tuesday period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Most of the action might end up north of this location, but to get an idea of the type of environment that could be lurking nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Slight risk for Sunday DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... ...OH VALLEY... NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NERN STATES SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM WRN KY NEWD ACROSS IND INTO WRN OH. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM CNTRL IND SEWD ACROSS SRN OH. MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THIS CONVECTION SWD ACROSS KY AND WV DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS SUNDAY WITH THE SERN EDGE OF THE JET AFFECTING THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY MID-AFTERNOON SHOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN IND...SW OH AND MOST OF KY WITH MUCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL IF CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. IF SUPERCELLS CAN ORGANIZE...THEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE FOR SUNDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND FRONTAL FORCING COULD ENCOURAGE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE POSING A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A MOIST AXIS SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE MID MO VALLEY NWD INTO SRN MN WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. LATER ON SUNDAY EVENING...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY EVENING SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT. THIS COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CORES WITH THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 03/31/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 The 18z NAM sounding for Findlay tomorrow not impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoeWx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Rinse and repeat, same as yesterday. Again summer looking pattern Thermal heat axis Mid-level shortwave riding SE. Hail and locally damaging straight line wind threat. It appears to be setting up further north though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Hatched hail on today's outlook. Also 30% wind and a small 5% tor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Regarding tomorrow night, very pronounced veering profiles with height although mid/upper level flow still pretty anemic. Instability parameters continue to look good. May be tough to get sustained supercells but hail threat still looking good whether multicellular or supercellular and maybe some damaging wind potential if an organized MCS can evolve. Euro continues to keep everything farther north but NAM/GFS have been insistent on convection spilling southeastward from WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Rinse and repeat, same as yesterday. Again summer looking pattern Thermal heat axis Mid-level shortwave riding SE. Hail and locally damaging straight line wind threat. It appears to be setting up further north though... I didn't know you were on here Welcome to the board Yes - other than the big end of February outbreak and the beginning of March - it seems like it has been a slow severe season. Granted there were some big big numbers with those outbreaks. It has basically been fairly quiet since. A few hailers. Will be curious how the rest of April goes. These temperatures are amazing. Stunning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Wouldn't be shocked at a SLGT risk around here for tomorrow night, 2000-3000 j/kg of MUCAPE through the overnight hours with decent shear to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Wouldn't be shocked at a SLGT risk around here for tomorrow night, 2000-3000 j/kg of MUCAPE through the overnight hours with decent shear to work with. Wow, what makes the CAPE so high for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 Wow, what makes the CAPE so high for tomorrow? The lapse rates aloft are a big factor. Very rapid temp drop with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 The lapse rates aloft are a big factor. Very rapid temp drop with height. Thanks, I also notice they expect the warm frontal position to be in far N Iliinois, meaning higher cape values just to the south in the Chicago area, but we're probably a tad too far north for good CAPE values here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 The lapse rates aloft are a big factor. Very rapid temp drop with height. Yep, H5-H7 delta T's >20 deg C is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Yep, H5-H7 delta T's >20 deg C is impressive. So the area might get some good hailers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 MCD out-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 HRRR popping storms in central Indiana by early-mid evening, moving E to SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 A storm has now initiated south of LAF. Will be interesting to see if this develops this evening per earlier meso discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 A storm has now initiated south of LAF. Will be interesting to see if this develops this evening per earlier meso discussion. Capping seems to be an issue. Several have popped up but never developed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Watched the cell near LAF move near me for about 30 minutes until it died. I heard a few claps of thunder but saw no lightning. I did get some great photos of crepuscular rays though, which is always a treat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 Bad night here, missed out on 2 massive hailers about 10 miles to my NE and another cell maybe 5 miles to my west Extreme light shows with each though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 SPC going with a large 5% risk area on Tuesday. Will likely see a SLIGHT RISK at some point somewhere in that massive area. SPC says: ...NRN IL INTO THE OH VALLEY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH GLANCES THE AREA...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE NEAR A W-E ORIENTED FRONT FROM NRN IL INTO WRN OH. DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND STORMS ARE LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK. BUT...WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S PROPAGATING S AND SEWD CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 Mid/upper flow tonight looks even weaker than it did earlier. Any severe tonight likely to be of the pulse variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 SPC still going with a very large 5% risk area. They did extend that risk area north too include the Great Lakes region. Basically the same discussion as before except for one important snippet at the end... ...NRN IL INTO THE OH VALLEY... AS THE UPPER TROUGH GLANCES THE AREA...CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE NEAR A W-E ORIENTED COLD FRONT FROM NRN IL INTO WRN OH. DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WILL LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEAK. BUT...WITH TIME...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS'S PROPAGATING S AND SEWD CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 As expected, the Storm Prediction Center has a large SLIGHT RISK area that includes nearly the entire Ohio Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Pulse storm setup for your area Patrick. It looks like good lapse rates and instability for this evening but no deep layer shear to speak of. It could be one of those where a storm goes from nothing to severe within three radar scans, drops some quarters, and create isolated wind damage as it dies. Might be an MCS roll across southern IN though. EDIT: Hoosier, I saw your post from yesterday right after I posted this. At least I know that you agree with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 The severe weather risk today has shifted way south here in Ohio. The threat is now down near the Cincinnati area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 MD issued for my neck of the woods. I know the big action is in TX but looks like we could get something today. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0217 PM CDT TUE APR 03 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...CNTRL IL...FAR WRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 031917Z - 032045Z LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FORMING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER NERN MO...CNTRL IL AND FAR WRN IND. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18-19Z PLACED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL MO AND A WARM FRONT LOCATED SEWD INTO ERN IL AND SRN IND. WARM SECTOR AIRMASS BETWEEN THESE TWO FRONTS IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID/UPR 50S TO LOW 60S. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES /FROM 7 TO 8 C PER KM/...WHICH WILL AID IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 J/KG WITH A FEW MORE HRS OF SURFACE HEATING. UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION...A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY LOBE IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MO. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG BOTH THE COLD AND WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 20-22Z. AREA VWP/S AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...THE MODERATE CAPE/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 first towers of the day going up in central IL. Looking at the RUC projection on SPC Mesoanalysis, it looks like the front is sagging south rather quickly and severe prospects are probably minimal north of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 first towers of the day going up in central IL. Looking at the RUC projection on SPC Mesoanalysis, it looks like the front is sagging south rather quickly and severe prospects are probably minimal north of LAF. Yep. IWX mentioned this in their afternoon disco. Looks like the hailers will be south of MBY and LAF. HWVR LOCALLY XPC LTL IN WAY OF ADDNL SHRA/TSRA GOING FORWARD ESP IN LIGHT OF RUC/HIGHRES GUIDANCE ADVTG LK SHADOW QUICKLY INLAND LT THIS AFTN/EVE AS MID LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE SHIFTS SWD IN RESPONSE TO NRN STREAM SW TROUGH AMPLIFYING SEWD INTO WRN QB. CONCURRENT SWD SHIFT OF SFC TROUGH/OUTFLW AND DEEPENING NRLY FLW CERTAINLY DOES NOT BODE WELL BUT GIVEN LAGGING H85 BNDRY AND APPRECIABLE THETA-E PLUME WILL HOLD W/LOW CHC POPS ACRS IN/OH THIS EVENING BFR TRUNCATING FURTHER LT TONIGHT. Already have a warning for possible quarters in Livingston Co. It will be interesting to see if these storms pulse or we get an MCS out of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Already have a warning for possible quarters in Livingston Co. It will be interesting to see if these storms pulse or we get an MCS out of them. Good comment. If the possible MCS forms it will probably move se from north central IL as anticipated. 74/56 here with se wind so boundary is just to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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