mayjawintastawm Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 OK, as we watch a brown Spring emerge and reflect way back to February 3rd, our last 0.1" or greater and over a foot of snow in Denver: Opinions on next measurable, next 0.1" or greater, and next 0.5" or greater (all water equivalent) in a calendar day at KDEN? Here goes, for starters: 0.01" or greater: 4/7 0.1" or greater: 4/25 0.5" or greater: 5/27 OK, so call me a pessimist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pathfinder Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I just returned from a week in CO, half of it in the mountains and the other half in Denver. Super dry out there, I was up near Boulder and could see all the smoke from the fires. Hope they get some moisture soon, but doesn't look too likely in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 These cutoffs are a challenge to forecast, but there is a chance as this troughs splits from the northern stream Monday/Tuesday next week. GFS would be about as good as it would get, but that low level flow would support upslope precip into the Front Range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted March 31, 2012 Author Share Posted March 31, 2012 Yup, I hope I lose the contest on this one! Any takers? BTW the big fire everyone has been following is under much better control, thanks to a lot of hard work by a lot of people, and light winds. Keep fingers crossed that the winds don't increase too much tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 OK, as we watch a brown Spring emerge and reflect way back to February 3rd, our last 0.1" or greater and over a foot of snow in Denver: Opinions on next measurable, next 0.1" or greater, and next 0.5" or greater (all water equivalent) in a calendar day at KDEN? Here goes, for starters: 0.01" or greater: 4/7 0.1" or greater: 4/25 0.5" or greater: 5/27 OK, so call me a pessimist. April 2nd through 4th: 0.01" sems likely, maybe over 0.10" Fort Collins has gotten a trace of precipitation this month. This is the driest 31 days I have ever lived through. Here is an SREF chart for April 3, 06z; it's the chance of 24 hour precip greater than 0.10". This looks like a fair chance for rain around here. 48 hour precip from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 I think I am starting to guess why nobody's placing bets... insanely hard to forecast these. Will root for the GFS for early this week and leave it at that. Was at Loveland skiing today and it was absolute mashed potatoes after noon with base high temps in the upper 50s. Impressive for 10600 ft on 3/31. Still, skiing when "clothing optional" would be appropriate ain't all bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 2, 2012 Share Posted April 2, 2012 There should be heavy amounts of rainfall and/or snowfall near and south of Denver in the next two days! There should be at least 0.10" north of Denver. I think it will turn out to be more than 0.10" for Fort Collins and Loveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 2, 2012 Author Share Posted April 2, 2012 Finally fixed the rain gauge over the weekend... if it works, we can compare S vs N of town. Wish I was another 25 miles south- that would be good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Hmm. Change that to "chance of heavy snow for parts of the Front Range." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Hmm. Change that to "chance of heavy snow for parts of the Front Range." How much are you thinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Well the GFS does show 0.3 to 0.5" for Denver, depending on the model run. I don't think that will be 3 to 5 inches of snow, actually it seems like it should be a pretty low snow:rain ratio, and may be rain in the daytime. This type of a front range storm system sometimes brings surprising amounts of snow to the mountains/foothills if it's close enough to the upper low. In this case, the upper low is in New Mexico, and the surface temps should get above freezing for all urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 3, 2012 Author Share Posted April 3, 2012 two milestones busted already... yay. 0.11 QPF so far at KDEN. 2" snow on our grass, snowing hard now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 two milestones busted already... yay. 0.11 QPF so far at KDEN. 2" snow on our grass, snowing hard now. Good for you. 10 miles SSW of Denver we've only got about 0.5" of snow so far. Here's to hoping we catch up to you guys on the north side of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 4, 2012 Author Share Posted April 4, 2012 Finished with 3" snow, no read on QPF yet as the rain gauge is covered- will melt tomorrow and see. At least 0.2" but I think less than 0.5". KDEN was about 0.47 and KAPA only 0.18 (?why) - we are 3 miles N of APA. A couple neighbors turned on their lawn irrigation systems over the weekend... and at 6 PM this evening they started like clockwork to water the new snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 Wow. According to CoCoRAHS, Elbert County got up to 12" of snow. Here in Fort Collins, we had a trace of snow. I could see snow that was in the grass, but not covering the grass. The snow was still there up the late morning or early afternoon hours. Then it melted, and we had a tiny bit of drizzle. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA. When is it going to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomad Posted April 5, 2012 Share Posted April 5, 2012 We also had snow in, but not completely covering the grass... Maybe an inch when it was deepest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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