Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Firstly, I fully expect that this thread will get very little attention; it's just not in folks' wheel-house of interest. But here are some thoughts to add to the fray of inevitable seasonal outlooks. Interesting read if you got the time … http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/fxus05.html “….THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR AMJ 2012 INDICATES BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTH, INCLUDING THE GULF COAST STATES, TO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST…..” They have all these forecasting philosophies that also includes the continental starvation of moisture and spring drought aspect… “…6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM…..” We have multiple teleconnectors, land and sea, pointing toward a warmer than normal summer. It is important to note, however, that on rare occasions very loud statistical precursors fail to realize an accurate prediction - particularly when using those indicators alone. The NAO has technically entered the multi-decadal negative tendency, however, as this last winter showed, that does not guarantee a season's bias will actually be negative. It's a serrated curve.... The PNA's correlation on summertime circulation overall is much less well defined and non-correlated. The EPO/NAO correlate better. The other consideration is that wave-lengths being smaller in summer means that -NAO vs +NAO would correlated differently. Over the years I have observed that heat on the east coast tends to correlate well with the actual gradient over the Canadian Maritimes. If that field is less vortex stricken heading into latter May, June usually gets toasty. That will be something I'll be looking for as the spring ages. In the meantime, the canvas clearly appears set up for painting a warm picture, with the attenuating La Nina combined with the on-going drier than normal conditions. (Scott, notice I didn't say "Sonoran" once ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 It will be interesting to see how this summer fares. Since I think we will see ENSO neutral conditions this summer looking back at neutral summers followed by Nina winters those summers tended to be cooler than average. That's not my forecast as I'm still working on some things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Sounds like something to really look forward to...high heat, no humidity, no t-storms and a drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Firstly, I fully expect that this thread will get very little attention; it's just not in folks' wheel-house of interest. But here are some thoughts to add to the fray of inevitable seasonal outlooks. Interesting read if you got the time … http://www.cpc.ncep....day/fxus05.html “….THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR AMJ 2012 INDICATES BELOW NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SOUTH, INCLUDING THE GULF COAST STATES, TO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES, AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE NORTHEAST…..” They have all these forecasting philosophies that also includes the continental starvation of moisture and spring drought aspect… “…6) PERSISTENTLY DRY OR WET SOILS IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER AND SNOW AND ICE COVER ANOMALIES IN THE WINTER. THESE FACTORS TEND TO PERSIST FOR LONG PERIODS AND ACT AS A KIND OF MEMORY IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM…..” We have multiple teleconnectors, land and sea, pointing toward a warmer than normal summer. It is important to note, however, that on rare occasions very loud statistical precursors fail to realize an accurate prediction - particularly when using those indicators alone. The NAO has technically entered the multi-decadal negative tendency, however, as this last winter showed, that does not guarantee a season's bias will actually be negative. It's a serrated curve.... The PNA's correlation on summertime circulation overall is much less well defined and non-correlated. The EPO/NAO correlate better. The other consideration is that wave-lengths being smaller in summer means that -NAO vs +NAO would correlated differently. Over the years I have observed that heat on the east coast tends to correlate well with the actual gradient over the Canadian Maritimes. If that field is less vortex stricken heading into latter May, June usually gets toasty. That will be something I'll be looking for as the spring ages. In the meantime, the canvas clearly appears set up for painting a warm picture, with the attenuating La Nina combined with the on-going drier than normal conditions. (Scott, notice I didn't say "Sonoran" once ) Oh but you did.............lol Nice write up, I hope you are spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Sounds like something to really look forward to...high heat, no humidity, no t-storms and a drought Word... although - low precip still can have thunder. Could be an interesting year if the central and eastern semi-perm heat dome sets up, because we could end up with NW-SE MCS activity in the means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Sounds like something to really look forward to...high heat, no humidity, no t-storms and a drought That would be awesome, bluebird beach days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 I'm actually surprised to see it this dry in the west considering the troughing they've had at times... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Nice to see we're in a moderate drought in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2012 Author Share Posted March 29, 2012 Nice to see we're in a moderate drought in March Flood season, yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Word... although - low precip still can have thunder. Could be an interesting year if the central and eastern semi-perm heat dome sets up, because we could end up with NW-SE MCS activity in the means... Rounding the ridge sort of idea? Hopefully it stays far enough SW of here so that we do get some of those overnight storms that rumble down out of Canada. It's dry here and this summer is already concerning me some. A lot of people around here have dug/shallow wells that rely on fairly consistent precip the year through, including us. Might be a lot of lake-bathing this summer... Which isn't terrible actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'm actually surprised to see it this dry in the west considering the troughing they've had at times... They've had a wayyyy below normal winter in terms of snowfall in a lot of areas... the Sierra especially (places that average 450-500" of snow are at 200" on the season). But even UT/CO are down by more than 25-33%. The high pacific NW and up into British Columbia is the only area that's been near normal or above with regards to seasonal snowfall departures from average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 John, your thoughts match mine. I think we're heading for a hot crescendo by mid summer with an ebbing heat pattern that peters out by October perhaps. I need to look at the late summer Pacific state to go beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Hopefully April water bans begin rolling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 John, your thoughts match mine. I think we're heading for a hot crescendo by mid summer with an ebbing heat pattern that peters out by October perhaps. I need to look at the late summer Pacific state to go beyond that. I'm waiting to see what the squirrels say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'm waiting to see what the squirrels say. I think they gave the big FU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Sounds like something to really look forward to...high heat, no humidity, no t-storms and a drought Days and days of 90s/100s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Endless summer 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Nice to see we're in a moderate drought in March Tell tale sign that the preceding winter blew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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