SmokeEater Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 SPC just upgraded the area to critical fire danger for Monday, the last few days have been see text. Someone shoot me now. ...SRN VA NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND... A ZONE OF STRONG W-NWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW /E.G. 40 MPH AT 700 MB/ WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ERN CANADA CLOSED LOW. SUSTAINED SFC WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE STRONGER THAN OBSERVED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH/GUSTS TO 40 MPH FORECAST FROM DELMARVA NWD INTO SRN CT...WHILE WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ELSEWHERE. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF MIN RH VALUES IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT AMONGST LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS. GRADUAL MOISTENING AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...AND PERHAPS SPOTTY PRECIPITATION...IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...A CRITICAL RISK UPGRADE WILL NOT BE MADE ATTM...BUT COULD BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES INCREASES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Major problems starting, RFW and Wind Advisory up, 1,000+ acre fire in Woodland Twp, Burlington County, only been burning for 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Major problems starting, RFW and Wind Advisory up, 1,000+ acre fire in Woodland Twp, Burlington County, only been burning for 2 hours. I find it hard to believe it burnt that much acres in two hours....i kno prime conditions, but still a little skeptical. Either way that will be burning for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I find it hard to believe it burnt that much acres in two hours....i kno prime conditions, but still a little skeptical. Either way that will be burning for a week The numbers are bouncing around. They all have at least triple digits. Looks like there is a second wildfire in Burlington County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 The same credibility as Irene last year? I will stop posting about the potential for a drought even though I do not see you guys equally beating up on Steve and why not? I will sit back and just liste. By the way, I have a Physical Geography degree with a Geology minor and 30 years experience in groundwater, municipal urban planning and so many other certificates it would make your head spin. So smokeater, who is credible now? By the way, while you were in diapers, I was doing papers on groundwater aquifers in college. For Bucks CoPA-- Please notice the graph you posted is falling not rising like it should be . Even though it groundwater levels are still at the median, the fact that the line is falling rapidly and instead of rising is the concern. I never said that were in a surface water drought warning- only heading in that direction. And yes I would agree with you that 2002 was much worse at this time of the year- but here in Lehigh County there has been a tremendous amount of urban growth including some heavy duty industrial water users which were not here in 2002. One must take a wait and see approach but only two years ago we were under a drought emergency here because Lehigh County Authority could not supply enough water to its existing customers. The map below is for groundwater only. PADEP and the USGS see things differently just like DRBC and your local municipal water supplier. I tend to rely on the USGS statuses rather the PADEP since PADEP utilizes USGS data in making their status calls. Posting a PADEP drought map frankly in IMHO is worthless- please rely on USGS drought status mapping. Its like PADEP is the Canadian model for area and the the USGS model is the Euro- whom would you trust? There are no drought emergencies right now. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 9, 2012 Author Share Posted April 9, 2012 The same credibility as Irene last year? I will stop posting about the potential for a drought even though I do not see you guys equally beating up on Steve and why not? I will sit back and just liste. By the way, I have a Physical Geography degree with a Geology minor and 30 years experience in groundwater, municipal urban planning and so many other certificates it would make your head spin. So smokeater, who is credible now? By the way, while you were in diapers, I was doing papers on groundwater aquifers in college. For Bucks CoPA-- Please notice the graph you posted is falling not rising like it should be . Even though it groundwater levels are still at the median, the fact that the line is falling rapidly and instead of rising is the concern. I never said that were in a surface water drought warning- only heading in that direction. And yes I would agree with you that 2002 was much worse at this time of the year- but here in Lehigh County there has been a tremendous amount of urban growth including some heavy duty industrial water users which were not here in 2002. One must take a wait and see approach but only two years ago we were under a drought emergency here because Lehigh County Authority could not supply enough water to its existing customers. The map below is for groundwater only. PADEP and the USGS see things differently just like DRBC and your local municipal water supplier. I tend to rely on the USGS statuses rather the PADEP since PADEP utilizes USGS data in making their status calls. Posting a PADEP drought map frankly in IMHO is worthless- please rely on USGS drought status mapping. Its like PADEP is the Canadian model for area and the the USGS model is the Euro- whom would you trust? Map created on: Monday, April 02, 2012 Groundwater status is indicated by color of symbol Current drought declaration status is indicated by color of county Groundwater only by USGS not PADEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I will say it is interesting seeing a 1/3 of the east coast under a red flag warning. Too bad we couldn't get a similar look with winter storm warnings this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 WARWICK PA| CHESTER | *4TH ALM* | FRENCH CREEK STATE PARK | LARGE WOODS/BRUSH FIRE THREATENING FIREWORKS FACTORY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Busy day in SE PA and probably elsewhere. Numerous Montgomery County, PA fire station's equipment relocated to Berks county for a big fire near Hopwell and RT 345. Tomorrow looks slightly better but a fire watch is up again. Regardless of who is right or wrong in the drought discussions - it is dry and with the high wind there is definitly an increased fire danger. We were lucky we had the early green up or a day like this with the fields still brown would have been even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 A rather different shift this afternoon at the office. I have been doing fire weather spot forecasts. Latest is for Chester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 The HPC 5 day precip outlook looks like less than .10" for the general area. Bummer for everyone. This seems to be a repeat of a sping/summer period in the near past. Yea? nay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 12, 2012 Author Share Posted April 12, 2012 FYI Map created on: Thursday, April 12, 2012 Surface-water status is indicated by color of symbol Current drought declaration status is indicated by color of county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Moderate drought now for most of SE PA. http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DM_state.htm?PA,NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 FYI: please see link and the comments. Interesting http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/despite_recent_rain_drought_co.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 FYI: please see link and the comments. Interesting http://www.nj.com/ne...drought_co.html What is interesting about a "nj.com" article that just says what you've been saying for the past 3 months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 What is interesting about a "nj.com" article that just says what you've been saying for the past 3 months? was the past storm one and done storm and thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Doesn't look promising in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 ^ so this map shows us that its forecasting a 33% chance of below normal precipitation btwn May 2-6. so what? this thread is getting kind of silly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 We should rename this the "drought mongerer" threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 was the past storm one and done storm and thank you Your using NJ.com and comments on an article on nj.com as your evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 Your using NJ.com and comments on an article on nj.com as your evidence? Did not present evidence- just presenting factual information for members in the forum. If there was a picture of a hailstone the size of a baseball in the newspaper or they were showing a snow drift 5 feet high, would you critique that as well as being evident of a severe thunderstorm or a blizzard? Also, Why not name the Lawn/Garden/Golf thread the "Tall Grass and Weed Mongerer" thread (I apologize in advance for using your thread topic Tombo - our expert in horticulture) as an example. Just because I discuss the potential for a severe drought this summer, does not make me a mongerer ( A person promoting something undesirable or discreditable.) I do not wish to be in a drought but the facts are presenting themselves that we are a short term drought situation according to the experts I would guess the states do not declare drought watches or emergencies in the hopes that we receive meaningful rainfall by Memorial Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Did not present evidence- just presenting factual information for members in the forum. If there was a picture of a hailstone the size of a baseball in the newspaper or they were showing a snow drift 5 feet high, would you critique that as well as being evident of a severe thunderstorm or a blizzard? Also, Why not name the Lawn/Garden/Golf thread the "Tall Grass and Weed Mongerer" thread (I apologize in advance for using your thread topic Tombo - our expert in horticulture) as an example. Just because I discuss the potential for a severe drought this summer, does not make me a mongerer ( A person promoting something undesirable or discreditable.) I do not wish to be in a drought but the facts are presenting themselves that we are a short term drought situation according to the experts I would guess the states do not declare drought watches or emergencies in the hopes that we receive meaningful rainfall by Memorial Day. So the states aren't issuing drought watches or emergencies because they are hoping we get more rain? Come on man, lol. Your way of thinking when it comes to that is ridiculous. It's simple, the reason you don't see watches or emergencies is, we're not in that situation yet. We're NOT in a drought yet as you keep trying to say. Yes, we have a deficit, everyone knows that. But we're not in some dire situation. And take what nj.com writes with a grain of salt, I work for the newspaper and don't read half of what comes out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted April 27, 2012 Share Posted April 27, 2012 Did not present evidence- just presenting factual information for members in the forum. If there was a picture of a hailstone the size of a baseball in the newspaper or they were showing a snow drift 5 feet high, would you critique that as well as being evident of a severe thunderstorm or a blizzard? Also, Why not name the Lawn/Garden/Golf thread the "Tall Grass and Weed Mongerer" thread (I apologize in advance for using your thread topic Tombo - our expert in horticulture) as an example. Just because I discuss the potential for a severe drought this summer, does not make me a mongerer ( A person promoting something undesirable or discreditable.) I do not wish to be in a drought but the facts are presenting themselves that we are a short term drought situation according to the experts I would guess the states do not declare drought watches or emergencies in the hopes that we receive meaningful rainfall by Memorial Day. Get me more credible sources then an article from NJ.com. Could care less if your right or wrong just get more credible sources to "present factual information" then NJ.com and its article commentators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted April 27, 2012 Author Share Posted April 27, 2012 http://www.state.nj.us/dep/drought/status.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 http://www.state.nj....ght/status.html Drought Status normal. Good news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 http://www.state.nj.us/dep/drought/status.html Thank you for enforcing my point. Again, we are in a deficit, but no drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Drought Status normal. Good news... However, for this time of year when we normally get a good bit of rain, it has been dry. Soon the climatology will take hold and the evaporation rates will increase dramatically. Basically my backyard has never been drier at this time of year. It won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.