SpartyOn Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 This predicted cold snap correlates well with the dip in the NAO. Little lag period by the looks of it. Topped at 52° today. The best was in Summer 2010 when we had a great heat wave with a -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Some really nice sprites were photographed over Woodward OK last week. Neat stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 I am now a official NWS Skywarn Trained Spotter. Glad of it too :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Some really nice sprites were photographed over Woodward OK last week. Neat stuff. Sweet picture! Sprites! ... Congrat's Jim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Hmmm.... 2009 redo? Really thinking we pay big time soon. June - September is starting to look ugly. If a strong nino develops, lock this in ... with moderating temperatures by November 1st in time for another mild nino winter. June and July look like -NAO / +PNA Does the map above look familiar for June and July? Step back 3 years. If this summer sucks, I swear I'm moving south! This weather is just pathetic.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 FWIW 2009 had 260 days with no sunspots. 2010 had 51, 2011 had just 2 and we currently stand at 0. The active sun continues on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 This predicted cold snap correlates well with the dip in the NAO. Little lag period by the looks of it. Topped at 52° today. This is what will help the cause the most as it forces the PAC Jet up towards AK/Pole and that helps tap the cold air up there and brings it down this way especially with the -NAO going. The best was in Summer 2010 when we had a great heat wave with a -NAO. Yep if the Pacific is not helping the cause ( get a +EPO/-PNA ) then we can get torched pretty good. FWIW 2009 had 260 days with no sunspots. 2010 had 51, 2011 had just 2 and we currently stand at 0. The active sun continues on. We are almost at the solar max. In that regard the activity is very low compared to the typical solar max. Could change but most don't think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 FWIW 2009 had 260 days with no sunspots. 2010 had 51, 2011 had just 2 and we currently stand at 0. The active sun continues on. The amount of solar flares and CME's has decreased though. Nothing in the X-class category lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Still only April but based on current data and indications of further warming across the ENSO regions thru mid month, it would be logical to assume a possible neutral or Nino anomaly next winter but its still quite early. IMO, I'd rather wait till late May-June before coming to any conclusions. I personally wouldn't mind a Nino next Winter (Weak one)....after seeing this dreaded La Nina Winter. Everything this past Winter flopped, f*cking sad. Despite huge records in March, and the AGW "crew" screaming out aloud....I didn't mind it at all, bring on Summer . A summer of perhaps 08 or 09 would be nice after seeing two extremely hot summers in a row lol. More or less.....seasonal this week in terms of temps. http://www.weatherof...l?on-143&unit=i You can never base a season/winter specifically on ENSO. Hell, 2010-11 and 2011-12 were both La Nina, and the winters literally blasted both ends of the spectrum in Detroit. Snow-wise, 2010-11 was the 5th snowiest winter on record, and while 2011-12 didnt rank in the top 20 least snowiest, it was well below normal in snowfall as well as being the 6th warmest winter on record. Also, temperature records go to the 1870s, and only 7 winters had more days with highs AOB 32F than 2010-11, and only 2 winters had less days with highs AOB 32F than 2011-12. That said, looking at past Ninos, weak is definitely what a winter-lover in this region wants, mod Nino is more of a mixed bag, and strong is the only one you really think ohhhh sh*t (that was disproved in 2009-10, however, Im sure blocking had a bit to do with it). And as for March, personally it sucked, but it was even more BELOW normal in most of Alaska than it was ABOVE normal here in the midwest/Lakes. I personally would LOVE a cool summer, but nothing at the expense of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 That big trough that opens up the east coast absolutely cleans out the Gulf in terms of moisture...kind of a shame to see it mostly going to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 You can never base a season/winter specifically on ENSO. Hell, 2010-11 and 2011-12 were both La Nina, and the winters literally blasted both ends of the spectrum in Detroit. Snow-wise, 2010-11 was the 5th snowiest winter on record, and while 2011-12 didnt rank in the top 20 least snowiest, it was well below normal in snowfall as well as being the 6th warmest winter on record. Also, temperature records go to the 1870s, and only 7 winters had more days with highs AOB 32F than 2010-11, and only 2 winters had less days with highs AOB 32F than 2011-12. That said, looking at past Ninos, weak is definitely what a winter-lover in this region wants, mod Nino is more of a mixed bag, and strong is the only one you really think ohhhh sh*t (that was disproved in 2009-10, however, Im sure blocking had a bit to do with it). And as for March, personally it sucked, but it was even more BELOW normal in most of Alaska than it was ABOVE normal here in the midwest/Lakes. I personally would LOVE a cool summer, but nothing at the expense of winter. Basing a future season on ENSO is tricky. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Central Wisconsin=frost hollow NWS shows 32F here Thursday nite. .06 inches of rain here this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 still not frost/freeze in site for MBY, courtyard garden looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 I won't worry until I see mid 20Fs in the forecast... Even then I have a huge supply of frost cloth and blankets in my supply...plus I have a greenhouse and a low tunnel, should I need to protect my strawberries or potted plants...plus I have a garage I can move stuff into. Some of my trees are right next to the house, so that should protect them to some extent. Gorgeous day so far...mid 50Fs, full sun...with the rain this morning its even greener yet. Looks like an awesome week coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Looks like a pretty decent trough early next week. This is the closest timeframe we have gotten to a trough in a while, usually they disapear 300 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Turd: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Sends another shot into DTX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 still not frost/freeze in site for MBY, courtyard garden looking great I don't know...a couple of those nights next week look pretty close right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 78 now. Maybe get one last spurt of growth before possible veg dev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Turd: Glad to see the GFS is on board with the EURO :wub: Also could be some SICK LE SNOW if things verify like that.. Lake temps are above normal and those cold 850's just spell out a sig LE even.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Get some good snow on the ground before the winds turn calm and the skies clear...allowing optimum heat loss! Models really picked up on this crap a long ways out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Models really picked up on this crap a long ways out! LoL don't they always on turd patterns? Last night's Euro was about the whackiest April pattern I have ever seen... but then again, I haven't followed weather long enough. It was a whisker away from flurries in the TN valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 I'm reading about the hard freeze of April 2012 1910 in Missouri...most of the state got down to 25F with that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Payback is a beeotch I guess. Now the west gets the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Whole state of Wisconsin in the 20Fs? Even some teens across MN...good for killing off all that pesky green foliage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 Good thing I grow hardy palms that laugh at teens. Foliage never dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 looking forward to my mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2012 Share Posted April 3, 2012 80 now...9th time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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