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April 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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Hmmm.... 2009 redo? Really thinking we pay big time soon. June - September is starting to look ugly. If a strong nino develops, lock this in ... with moderating temperatures by November 1st in time for another mild nino winter. June and July look like -NAO / +PNA

post-5896-0-12698500-1333388001.gif

Does the map above look familiar for June and July? Step back 3 years.

post-5896-0-98765900-1333387892.gif

If this summer sucks, I swear I'm moving south! This weather is just pathetic..

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This predicted cold snap correlates well with the dip in the NAO. Little lag period by the looks of it.

Topped at 52° today.

This is what will help the cause the most as it forces the PAC Jet up towards AK/Pole and that helps tap the cold air up there and brings it down this way especially with the -NAO going.

compare.we.png

The best was in Summer 2010 when we had a great heat wave with a -NAO.

Yep if the Pacific is not helping the cause ( get a +EPO/-PNA ) then we can get torched pretty good.

FWIW 2009 had 260 days with no sunspots. 2010 had 51, 2011 had just 2 and we currently stand at 0. The active sun continues on.

We are almost at the solar max. In that regard the activity is very low compared to the typical solar max. Could change but most don't think it will.

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FWIW 2009 had 260 days with no sunspots. 2010 had 51, 2011 had just 2 and we currently stand at 0. The active sun continues on.

The amount of solar flares and CME's has decreased though. Nothing in the X-class category lately.

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Still only April but based on current data and indications of further warming across the ENSO regions thru mid month, it would be logical to assume a possible neutral or Nino anomaly next winter but its still quite early. IMO, I'd rather wait till late May-June before coming to any conclusions.

I personally wouldn't mind a Nino next Winter (Weak one)....after seeing this dreaded La Nina Winter. Everything this past Winter flopped, f*cking sad. Despite huge records in March, and the AGW "crew" screaming out aloud....I didn't mind it at all, bring on Summer :D. A summer of perhaps 08 or 09 would be nice after seeing two extremely hot summers in a row lol.

More or less.....seasonal this week in terms of temps.

http://www.weatherof...l?on-143&unit=i

You can never base a season/winter specifically on ENSO. Hell, 2010-11 and 2011-12 were both La Nina, and the winters literally blasted both ends of the spectrum in Detroit. Snow-wise, 2010-11 was the 5th snowiest winter on record, and while 2011-12 didnt rank in the top 20 least snowiest, it was well below normal in snowfall as well as being the 6th warmest winter on record. Also, temperature records go to the 1870s, and only 7 winters had more days with highs AOB 32F than 2010-11, and only 2 winters had less days with highs AOB 32F than 2011-12.

That said, looking at past Ninos, weak is definitely what a winter-lover in this region wants, mod Nino is more of a mixed bag, and strong is the only one you really think ohhhh sh*t (that was disproved in 2009-10, however, Im sure blocking had a bit to do with it).

And as for March, personally it sucked, but it was even more BELOW normal in most of Alaska than it was ABOVE normal here in the midwest/Lakes. I personally would LOVE a cool summer, but nothing at the expense of winter.

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You can never base a season/winter specifically on ENSO. Hell, 2010-11 and 2011-12 were both La Nina, and the winters literally blasted both ends of the spectrum in Detroit. Snow-wise, 2010-11 was the 5th snowiest winter on record, and while 2011-12 didnt rank in the top 20 least snowiest, it was well below normal in snowfall as well as being the 6th warmest winter on record. Also, temperature records go to the 1870s, and only 7 winters had more days with highs AOB 32F than 2010-11, and only 2 winters had less days with highs AOB 32F than 2011-12.

That said, looking at past Ninos, weak is definitely what a winter-lover in this region wants, mod Nino is more of a mixed bag, and strong is the only one you really think ohhhh sh*t (that was disproved in 2009-10, however, Im sure blocking had a bit to do with it).

And as for March, personally it sucked, but it was even more BELOW normal in most of Alaska than it was ABOVE normal here in the midwest/Lakes. I personally would LOVE a cool summer, but nothing at the expense of winter.

Basing a future season on ENSO is tricky.

This

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I won't worry until I see mid 20Fs in the forecast... Even then I have a huge supply of frost cloth and blankets in my supply...plus I have a greenhouse and a low tunnel, should I need to protect my strawberries or potted plants...plus I have a garage I can move stuff into. Some of my trees are right next to the house, so that should protect them to some extent.

Gorgeous day so far...mid 50Fs, full sun...with the rain this morning its even greener yet.

Looks like an awesome week coming up...

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Models really picked up on this crap a long ways out!

LoL don't they always on turd patterns?

Last night's Euro was about the whackiest April pattern I have ever seen... but then again, I haven't followed weather long enough. It was a whisker away from flurries in the TN valley...

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