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April 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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Damn right I'm loving this Stebooo! :thumbsup:

Me too. Screw it, some people like things that arent with the majority. Yes, most non-weather hobbyists would think we are crazy, but no more so than they think of someone who roots on a severe outbreak, which just ends up destroying some peoples lives. I admit it was funny that the last day of the warmest March on record had a high temp almost 10 degrees below normal under a thick overcast

:devilsmiley:

Ma Nature is playing an April Fools on weather forecasters. Two days ago our projected high for today was 68F, yesterday, it was 66F. This mornings forecast issuance dropped the forecasted high to 58F, and the latest update has dropped it to 54F.

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Pretty big differences in the forecast for tomorrow compared to a few days ago for many areas. Especially southern WI/northeast IL.

This is the forecast for 21z tomorrow afternoon...

Fri morning's 12z NAM

And today's 12z run for the same 21z time period. Went from mid 80s to low 60s. Would probably be even cooler than this if there's thick stratus again...

Kind of depressing for those who were looking forward to some more early season heat.

The extensive sunshine has allowed it to warm up to 69 here. The backdoor cold front is just northeast of here though and heading this way. Don't think the clouds will make it in, but the front will likely stop the temp rise here in a bit. Tomorrow now looks like we may be stuck in the 50s with thick stratus if these new 12z runs are correct. The trend is heading in that direction so I'm sure they are. If that indeed works out it could be in the 50s here, with 80s just a county or two south. If that happens I may jump in the truck and blast into that heat to shoot a video of the temp increase on the truck's temp display.

59° is forecast for here tomorrow. But with the east wind, I'm not so sure it will be mostly sunny as LOT is predicting. This is about the warmest temperatures for today according to the 12z NAM.

temp9.gif

FYI - not complaining about it.

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Ha. Models fail under 48 hrs. So looking ahead into the med range and even teleconection projections...not even worth it. One day at a time.

BTW. Last year sucked compared to this April IMO. Getting a temp over 50 on April 1st should be considered a plus aroun the lakes. We never really get hot around here until June anyways. Enjoy your hooded sweatshirts and sunglasses.

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Sun busted out here. Should be a top-shelf afternoon with perhaps a lightning show tonight. Perfect day.

Perfect early spring week in store as well. Now THIS is what I expect of "above normal" in early April.

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. East southeast wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Southeast wind between 9 and 13 mph.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. North northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 61. North wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 60.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 59.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 60.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.

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Sun busted out here. Should be a top-shelf afternoon with perhaps a lightning show tonight. Perfect day.

Perfect early spring week in store as well. Now THIS is what I expect of "above normal" in early April.

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. East southeast wind between 10 and 13 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Southeast wind between 9 and 13 mph.

Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north northeast. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. North northwest wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 61. North wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 60.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 59.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 60.

Friday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.

Dang! That's almost a carbon copy of my forecast down here. The only difference is about 10 degrees warmer Tuesday and the chances of rain are about 12 hours later here.

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How long will it roll into neutral? Long duration or jumping back into Nina or right into a weak niño ?

Most seem to think we are gonna roll into weak nino by summer. A bit depends on this MJO progression. Thus we could roll into Nino before May and end up with a stronger Nino at that. My worry is the stronger nino ( sucks for winter for one) playing out because the MJO has begun to pick up steam again. Basically it is gonna be hold your breath till this thing gets past phase 1. Climo says we are due for a weak nino ( not mod/strong ) but yeah you know how that usually works. lol Chances of returning back to Nina are very very slim.

As you can see here the water just below the surface has been in warming mode for a while now.

wkxzteq_anm.gif

Here is the latest 7 day change map. Note the PDO region as well which tends to follow along ( or tries to ) with enso and vice versa.

post-90-0-26414500-1333312380.png

For now i am going with a weak Nino and will say there is a chance it ends up stronger. See what happens over the next couple of weeks.

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Oh, I did finally see the sun for a total of 30 minutes today, as before today the last time anyone in Detroit saw the sun was 2 PM Wednesday (10 mintues this afternoon, 20 minutes just after sunrise).

Par for the course I guess, given the fact that we're cloudiest region outside the Pacific NW.

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