cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Yeah models are slowly crushing the heat dome run to run. It was originally looking like 88 here Mon, now looks more like 75-80. Epic model failure across the board with this pattern early next week. A few days ago the models were showing a 100kt mid-level jet ripping straight north through Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 New storms are firing towards Dubuque tonight. Yeah, my local forecast has trended cooler of the next 7 days. Most temperatures are in the 50s. 38° to start April off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 New storms are firing towards Dubuque tonight. Yeah, my local forecast has trended cooler of the next 7 days. Most temperatures are in the 50s. 38° to start April off! Lol went from expecting upper 60's tomorrow to now fog and 54 here according to the point and click.. 50's forecasted for the whole week now too.. the lake.. Also down to 38 right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Been a very noisy evening with lots of thunder, but still only .06" for the night. The concentrated downpours have done their best to miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Lol went from expecting upper 60's tomorrow to now fog and 54 here according to the point and click.. 50's forecasted for the whole week now too.. the lake.. Also down to 38 right now.. Saturday's forecast busted big time! Average lake temp is about 41°. Got 61° for the high tomorrow... see how that holds up. That cell SSW of Moline is nasty looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Doh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Ugh jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 The Nino region has gone from cool to warm very fast. Those darker oranges have blossomed the last few days over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 What a useless weather pattern, I hope those who were wanting below normal weather will be pleased with this pattern. This would be the equivalent of a cold and dry pattern in the winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 What a useless weather pattern, I hope those who were wanting below normal weather will be pleased with this pattern. This would be the equivalent of a cold and dry pattern in the winter.... This thing needs to break...just frustrating as hell to be quite frank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 could of used a little more snow and cold to extend ice fishing but all and all a very very decent month of march weather, imby. Surely nothing to moan about. Plenty of spring left for those who get their panties soaked for a tornado to rip over their home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Not exactly the same look but the same result. Heat in the west, "normal" here. This is what I meant by the Pacific looking completely different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Maybe this year will be colder than 2009. Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 WOW! Speechless how spoiled people have become. He says "useless weather pattern" hmmmm... Friday was one of the more interesting Thunderstorm days I have ever witnessed with Rain/Snow/Sleet and Hail with temps at 34 degrees. It was cool as hell. True weather fan would find beauty in any season even if it means no roofs were blown off homes or Trees uprooted and Ridiculous 85 degree weather in Mid March Above average all year long, ALL YEAR! Warmest March on record, 4th warmest winter ever and Amazing amount of Severe weather in March in Michigan then finally get a stretch of Normal to below normal Temperatures with a few cloudy days and all I hear is complaints. Truly Amazing. IT'S MICHIGAN IT GETS CLOUDY AND COLD SOMETIMES... DEAL WITH IT!!!! BTW: It's Sunny and 38 degrees right now. I would say it's a pretty darn nice of a morning for April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Maybe this year will be colder than 2009. Sent from my iPad Maybe 1816 without a volcano. Heck maybe a mini ice age. Bowmee can hunt polar bears instead of white tail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I woke up to sun this morning, but it may not last. The stubborn northeast flow off the lakes continues to screw up the forecast. The visible loop shows the evil stratus deck expanding southwestward across northeast Iowa. If we get stuck under this crap again today will be another huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Hawk, if that happens, I'm driving into oncoming traffic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 WOW! Speechless how spoiled people have become. He says "useless weather pattern" hmmmm... Friday was one of the more interesting Thunderstorm days I have ever witnessed with Rain/Snow/Sleet and Hail with temps at 34 degrees. It was cool as hell. True weather fan would find beauty in any season even if it means no roofs were blown off homes or Trees uprooted and Ridiculous 85 degree weather in Mid March Above average all year long, ALL YEAR! Warmest March on record, 4th warmest winter ever and Amazing amount of Severe weather in March in Michigan then finally get a stretch of Normal to below normal Temperatures with a few cloudy days and all I hear is complaints. Truly Amazing. IT'S MICHIGAN IT GETS CLOUDY AND COLD SOMETIMES... DEAL WITH IT!!!! BTW: It's Sunny and 38 degrees right now. I would say it's a pretty darn nice of a morning for April 1st. I am talking about going forward not what happened on Friday.... 2 totally different things all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 This looks like a bunch of crap... We actually had some sunshine this morning, but its disappearing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted April 1, 2012 Author Share Posted April 1, 2012 It will be interesting to see if the NAO continues to drop as well. Phase 1 in April is cool I believe in this region. Does anyone have info on what each phase means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Another foggy/stratus day, ugh. Problem is the stratus is self sustaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Another foggy/stratus day, ugh. Problem is the stratus is self sustaining. Payback is a [insert derogatory term here]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Does anyone have info on what each phase means? Temps: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ Precip: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Precipitation/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Quad Cities NWS once again having to cave to the incredibly stubborn cool, stratus-filled northeast flow. At least Cedar Rapids has been in the sun this morning with the front on top of us. We've managed to get into the low/mid 60s so far, but there is a several degree spread just across the city and the nws is capping us at 70 now rather than 80. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1041 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012 .UPDATE... SFC FRONT ROUGHLY NEAR KCID-KCWI LINE AT 15Z. EXTENSIVE STRATUS AND FOG WAS FOUND POST FRONTAL IN COOLER E/NE FLOW. CHALLENGE IS MOVEMENT OF FRONT AND EVOLUTION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH HUGE IMPACTS ON TEMPS. INCOMING SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUPPORT THE BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE SLIDING TO THE W/SW THIS AFTN TO NEAR KAWG-KGBG LINE TOWARD 00Z. LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF SFC TO 925 MB IS PROGGED TO TURN MORE DUE EASTERLY THIS AFTN SUGGESTING MORE OF WWD DRIFT THAN SWD WITH STRATUS. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TOUGH AND VERY SLOW GO ON EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS... AND HAVE UPDATED TO BEGIN LOWERING HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS NORTH OF HWY 30. HAVE GONE WITH L/M 60S FOR NOW BUT WITH EACH PASSING HOUR AS STRATUS HOLDS 50S LOOKING MORE AND MORE PROBABLE. ALSO EXTENDED MENTION OF FOG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH 18Z. MEANWHILE IN THE TALE OF TWO HALVES OF CWA... THE SOUTH IS BASKING IN FULL SOLAR INSOLATION WITH SW WINDS INCREASING AND DEEPER MIXING... AND WILL SEE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH WITH WIDESPREAD L/M 80S WITH ISOLD U80S POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. GRIDS/ZFP HAVE BEEN SENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Another day of stratus here! Little warmer though @ 44°. Forecast now is for 40s locally. 2 days ago the forecast was for low 70s... Feels like the PacNW lately, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 This looks like a bunch of crap... We actually had some sunshine this morning, but its disappearing now. :wub: LOL what a bust in temps.. Some folks are gonna be pissed.. What a useless weather pattern, I hope those who were wanting below normal weather will be pleased with this pattern. This would be the equivalent of a cold and dry pattern in the winter.... Damn right I'm loving this Stebooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 This pattern really isn't even below normal outside of a rogue day or 2 here and there and especially farther north/east. Could be way worse if you don't like spring cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Good disco from LOT. I like the part that is highlighted! 000 FXUS63 KLOT 011505 AAA AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1005 AM CDT SUN APR 1 2012 .DISCUSSION... 1005 AM CDT THE EARLY MORNING STORMS HAVE MOVED QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. IN THEIR WAKE...THEY HELPED TO SINK THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH TO NEAR INTERSTATE 88 AT AROUND 10 AM. TO THE NORTH...WHERE STRATUS AND NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BASICALLY FLAT LINE. WHILE SOME MIXING OUT OF THE STRATUS MAY OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING...REINFORCING NORTHEAST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL EVOLVE AS A WEAK LOW SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ENABLE THE FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER TO THE NORTH...WITH PLACES SEEING A FALL THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 01.12 NAM CAPTURES THIS TREND WELL...AND SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE STRATUS EVOLUTION...HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS A TALE OF TWO DIFFERENT DAYS ACROSS THE CWA AS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES WITH MID 60S ALREADY AT 10 AM IN PERU AND PONTIAC. A WARM-UP TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES STILL LOOKS WELL IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY SEEING GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ALREADY INDICATING GOOD MIXING AND CONTINUED LOW- LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE 12Z ILX RAOB HAD NEAR 1300 J/KG OF MUCAPE WHICH SHOULD BE A GOOD BASELINE FOR WHAT IS SHIFTING OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AS IT CONTINUES TO WARM. THIS LOOKS TO MAXIMIZE/POOL THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG IN THE FAR SOUTH...BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PRONOUNCED TRIGGER AND A QUICKLY WEAKENING LOW- LEVEL JET. THE WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP TO INCREASE CONVERGENCE SOME AS IT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...AN ILL- DEFINED SHORT WAVE RIPPLE IN EASTERN IA IS SHIFTING EAST. TOGETHER IT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO SPARK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 24 THIS AFTERNOON. ABOUT ONE THIRD OF EXPLICIT CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE LOOKED AT HAS THAT FORM OF SOLUTION. INSTABILITY PROFILES ARE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MAINLY A HAIL THREAT IF ANY STORM WERE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 WOW! Speechless how spoiled people have become. He says "useless weather pattern" hmmmm... Friday was one of the more interesting Thunderstorm days I have ever witnessed with Rain/Snow/Sleet and Hail with temps at 34 degrees. It was cool as hell. True weather fan would find beauty in any season even if it means no roofs were blown off homes or Trees uprooted and Ridiculous 85 degree weather in Mid March Above average all year long, ALL YEAR! Warmest March on record, 4th warmest winter ever and Amazing amount of Severe weather in March in Michigan then finally get a stretch of Normal to below normal Temperatures with a few cloudy days and all I hear is complaints. Truly Amazing. IT'S MICHIGAN IT GETS CLOUDY AND COLD SOMETIMES... DEAL WITH IT!!!! BTW: It's Sunny and 38 degrees right now. I would say it's a pretty darn nice of a morning for April 1st. This cloudy and cool weather doesnt bother me one bit, regardless of the fact that its too warm to snow and too cold to do anything else. BTW, it was the 6th warmest winter, not the 4th. Counted the days....heres the Jan 1-Mar 31 temp departures for DTW for 2011 vs 2012 2012: Below normal: 18 days Exactly normal: 9 days Above normal: 64 days 2011: Below normal: 52 days Exactly normal: 4 days Above normal: 34 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Pretty big differences in the forecast for tomorrow compared to a few days ago for many areas. Especially southern WI/northeast IL. This is the forecast for 21z tomorrow afternoon... Fri morning's 12z NAM And today's 12z run for the same 21z time period. Went from mid 80s to low 60s. Would probably be even cooler than this if there's thick stratus again... Kind of depressing for those who were looking forward to some more early season heat. The extensive sunshine has allowed it to warm up to 69 here. The backdoor cold front is just northeast of here though and heading this way. Don't think the clouds will make it in, but the front will likely stop the temp rise here in a bit. Tomorrow now looks like we may be stuck in the 50s with thick stratus if these new 12z runs are correct. The trend is heading in that direction so I'm sure they are. If that indeed works out it could be in the 50s here, with 80s just a county or two south. If that happens I may jump in the truck and blast into that heat to shoot a video of the temp increase on the truck's temp display. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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