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April 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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Another powerful western trough setting up on the 8-10 day mean Tropical posted, I have noticed a trough/negative height anomaly like this show up in that location on the 8-10 day mean with pretty much every larger scale severe threat this year.

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Another powerful western trough setting up on the 8-10 day mean Tropical posted, I have noticed a trough/negative height anomaly like this show up in that location on the 8-10 day mean with pretty much every larger scale severe threat this year.

I noticed that too- I am very interested in that for possible interaction somewhere in the Midwest around May 6th-10th timeframe. I also think we are going to have a very active severe weather period somewhere in the May 14th-21st timeframe as well. Those are my two windows to really watch for the Midwest and Lakes for severe weather.

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Forgive me if this has been posted, I haven't kept up with the last few days...

Short article from IND discussing the oddity of April being cooler than March.

The Indianapolis area will mark another rare occurrence for Spring 2012...the average temperature for April will be about 2 degrees cooler than March. Typically the average monthly temperature increases nearly 11 degrees from March to April. This will be only the second time since 1872 when March was warmer than April. The only other occurrence was in 1907.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=82326&source=0

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Considering backpacking the UP this May. Basically hopeful that this dry weather continues well into mid May. Nothing worse than wading through ankle deep mud.

This weekend looks chilly. Mid 40s seem to low though. Upper 40s to a near chilly 50 seem more likely on Sat. Watching and waiting for the models to throttle up the highs in the next 3 runs

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Got a couple hours of partly sunny skies, completely cloudy since 9am or so. About 48° now.

@B-Rent: Looks like this entire region will end up cooler this month, then March was!

Probably end up < +1° for the month after this cool spell.

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Somehow the weenie maps are still intriguing, but I won't buy it unless it continues through the 0z runs tonight.

This system gets into the upper air network for the 0z run. I'll bite on the idea if the snow threat continues then!

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Considering backpacking the UP this May. Basically hopeful that this dry weather continues well into mid May. Nothing worse than wading through ankle deep mud.

This weekend looks chilly. Mid 40s seem to low though. Upper 40s to a near chilly 50 seem more likely on Sat. Watching and waiting for the models to throttle up the highs in the next 3 runs

I wouldn't be too sure about that. The predictions for Northern IN for Saturday started in the mid 50's at the beginning of the week. They've kept dropping the high for Saturday by a couple of degrees a day. My point for the past 2 days is 46. The temps up there won't be any warmer. I think the models are pretty locked in through the weekend.

I'm resigned to endure a raw, chilly, wet Saturday. I was planning on fishing a bass tournament near Rochester, IN, but backed out. Eight hours on a lake under those conditions doesn't sound like much fun.

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If the 18z NAM verified (which it almost surely will not), not only would Detroit see an unprecedented snowstorm on April 28th (1.12" qpf, all snow, 2m temps in the low 30s), but the low temp on April 29th (low 20s) would be by far the coldest temp on record this late in the spring.

Station ID: KDTW Lat:   42.23 Long:  -83.33                                                        
NAM Model Run: 18Z 26APR 2012
 HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX   Tot    Snowfall  Vis
               Deg F  Deg F   deg      kt    in.   in.     Thk    GPH   Tmp   Tmp   mb   %  TEXT    Clouds      in    SM
  0 04/26 18Z   56     46     329      13    0.00  0.00    550    556    3.9 -15.7 1006  92       019BKN074    0.0   15.0
  3 04/26 21Z   53     45     316      13    0.01  0.00    546    555    1.0 -16.9 1010  97 -RA   020BKN075    0.0   12.0
  6 04/27 00Z   49     37     341      15    0.02  0.00    541    553   -2.4 -17.9 1013  81       033BKN068    0.0   15.0
  9 04/27 03Z   41     31     337       9    0.00  0.00    538    552   -3.2 -17.5 1017   9       016FEW070    0.0   15.0
 12 04/27 06Z   35     25     325      10    0.00  0.00    535    551   -4.7 -16.6 1019  18       296FEW312    0.0   15.0
 15 04/27 09Z   30     22     330       7    0.00  0.00    536    552   -5.6 -16.6 1020   4       181FEW248    0.0   15.0
 18 04/27 12Z   34     22     315       7    0.00  0.00    536    554   -5.6 -17.1 1023   3       015FEW063    0.0   15.0
 21 04/27 15Z   46     20     324       8    0.00  0.00    537    556   -5.6 -16.8 1023   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
 24 04/27 18Z   52     20     331      10    0.00  0.00    540    559   -4.3 -16.4 1022   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
 27 04/27 21Z   53     21     335       7    0.00  0.00    543    561   -2.8 -15.9 1021   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
 30 04/28 00Z   50     24     350       3    0.00  0.00    545    563   -2.4 -15.4 1022   2       279FEW340    0.0   15.0
 33 04/28 03Z   40     27      79       8    0.00  0.00    546    564   -2.6 -16.1 1023  38       194SCT354    0.0   15.0
 36 04/28 06Z   38     28     100       7    0.00  0.00    544    564   -2.5 -15.7 1024  99       141OVC331    0.0   15.0
 39 04/28 09Z   39     27     107       7    0.00  0.00    545    563   -1.9 -15.7 1022 100       092OVC272    0.0   15.0
 42 04/28 12Z   40     27     101       9    0.00  0.00    545    563   -3.4 -15.9 1021 100       039OVC336    0.0   14.6
 45 04/28 15Z   39     29     105      11    0.01  0.00    546    563   -0.5 -16.1 1020 100 -RA   018OVC321    0.0   13.4
 48 04/28 18Z   32     31      66       7    0.33  0.00    545    561   -0.1 -14.6 1019 100 SN    002OVC352    3.3    0.0
 51 04/28 21Z   31     31      65      10    0.37  0.00    545    558   -0.4 -15.5 1017 100 SN    002OVC259    3.9    0.2
 54 04/29 00Z   31     31      52      10    0.22  0.00    543    557   -1.0 -15.6 1017 100 SN    002OVC282    2.2    0.4
 57 04/29 03Z   32     31      30       6    0.18  0.00    540    555   -1.5 -16.5 1018 100 -SN   062OVC268    1.2    7.2
 60 04/29 06Z   29     27     327       6    0.00  0.00    538    554   -2.9 -19.0 1019  46       005SCT029    0.0    4.6
 63 04/29 09Z   24     23     340       5    0.00  0.00    538    554   -2.7 -18.5 1021  55       037BKN080    0.0    5.1
 66 04/29 12Z   24     23     303       3    0.00  0.00    537    555   -3.9 -19.2 1023  29       005SCT009    0.0    8.1
 69 04/29 15Z   33     30     279       5    0.00  0.00    535    555   -4.7 -20.2 1025   0          CLR       0.0   15.0
 72 04/29 18Z   39     33     288       7    0.00  0.00    534    555   -4.2 -20.9 1025   1          CLR       0.0   15.1
 75 04/29 21Z   48     35     328       8    0.00  0.00    536    555   -3.6 -21.3 1023   5       085FEW121    0.0   15.0
 78 04/30 00Z   46     37     351       2    0.00  0.00    537    557   -3.0 -21.2 1024   6       172FEW207    0.0   15.0
 81 04/30 03Z   37     33      98       6    0.00  0.00    537    559   -2.8 -20.7 1027  14       353FEW353    0.0   14.8
 84 04/30 06Z   33     28      95       3    0.00  0.00    539    562   -3.5 -15.9 1028  26       100SCT289    0.0   13.1

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Still without a trace of snow in april and nothing in the forecast so it looks like this will be the 2nd april since 1970 without at least a T.

In the last 15 years, the only April I couldn't find a snowfall report was 1999. Other than that either a trace or accumulation.

Forecasted temperatures between Friday PM and Saturday PM has been taken down a few notches FWIW.

Edit: Down to 42° already! Still another ~90 min of daylight left!

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