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April 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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Another typical April day, cool and wet. Picked up over 0.10" of rain so far. About 48°. Needs to rain in central IL more, where they really do need it.

No! It needs to rain a bit up here, stay bone dry down there which will allow the heat ridge to build up here nicely. The moisture up here will allow dews to climb into the wonderful 70s easily. :) :)

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Typical April weather is all we've had this month around here... Isn't it normal for the heat dome to build south and west this time of year and tease us with warm fronts that stall out just south of the area? I know Saukville loves it :pimp:

LOL! That's how I feel right now seeing the 80's sit right to the west and south while it's in the low 50s outside here. I should have known that March warmth came with a catch. Now it's time to pay up. :violin:

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No! It needs to rain a bit up here, stay bone dry down there which will allow the heat ridge to build up here nicely. The moisture up here will allow dews to climb into the wonderful 70s easily. :) :)

Well it's staying pretty dry another 75-100 miles south of here. I guess we both will endure high dewpoints then!

Picked up 0.25" of rain this morning. Getting a break now.

---

12z GFS back to showing snow accumulations for far N IL/S WI, lower MI. Not going to buy it quite yet. Skilling did mention snow could mix in S WI Saturday.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=04&model_dd=25&model_init_hh=12&fhour=78&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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I heard mention of snow. I hope not. What is shown is below me here in lower mi, as of now anyway. lol

Under the link in my last post above, the GFS shows the snow a little further south from Saginaw. More towards Kalamazoo. You wouldn't have liked the last 12z run!

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MKX

THERE IS SOME SNOW THREAT WITH

EVAPORATIVE COOLING ON NAM SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER BOUNDARY LAYERTEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH SO ONLY A RAIN/SNOW MIXPOSSIBILITY FOR NOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1

Skilling also mentioned that someone might be seeing some flakes this weekend FWIW...

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Even an IWX met mentioned snow in his long term disco yesterday.........I lol'd.

LONG TERM...

TROF ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGHT THE PERIOD. COLD

ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ALL HAVE

SIMILAR PATTERNS...WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR EACH

WAVE/BUCKLE/RIPPLE. THIS IS MORE REMINISCENT OF WINTER-LIKE PATTERN

WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING...FEEL A BLEND OF MODELS AND

PREVIOUS FORECAST THE BEST SOLUTION. WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER

AND EFFICIENT MIXING...SUSPECT THAT THE RISK OF FROST WILL BE

MINIMAL DURING THE EXTENDED. THAT BEING SAID...COULD NOT RULE OUT A

CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN SNOW SHOWER DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT

PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...INTO NORTHERN INDIANA.

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12z GFS would be a snow/rain mix in the heaviest precip in Madison. Things often change quite a bit between T+72 hours and T+0, so who knows what's gonna happen at this point.

The energy that will drive this event is currently over a poorly sampled area of the North Pacific south of Alaska, and is starting to have a complex interaction with a trough to the west of California. Complex events + poor sampling = likely forecast failure.

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12z GFS would be a snow/rain mix in the heaviest precip in Madison. Things often change quite a bit between T+72 hours and T+0, so who knows what's gonna happen at this point.

The energy that will drive this event is currently over a poorly sampled area of the North Pacific south of Alaska, and is starting to have a complex interaction with a trough to the west of California. Complex events + poor sampling = likely forecast failure.

Probably won't know anything for sure until late tomorrow. It'll come down to the strength of the wave and strength of the high to north, I think.

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