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April 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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12z Euro a little bit like the GFS. Not as deep with the trough though.

More importantly is the euro has been trending towards the GFS.

The threat is definitely legit this go around. Alot more going for it vs the prior stuff the models showed for a day and lost/shifted north. Different pattern for one. More models showing it and not just one run either.

What is really interesting is the models showing it closing off and that could play havoc with precip amounts/how fast it gets out of here. Also helps keep the colder air locked in longer. Thus this has some real potential ( for a decent event ) for many in this region. NOT saying it will happen but yeah there is a bit going for it. Right now it looks like most north of say i80 may see some flakes at the very least. See how things go over the next few days.

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Apparently the aurora is faintly visible west of here in less light polluted/rural areas.

I just took a look, but didn't see anything resembling the aurora. Skies here have been increasing with light pollution over the last decade.

Edit:

0z NAM, 84hour looking similar to the GFS regarding the potential storm this weekend.

nam_namer_084_850_temp_ht_s.gif

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18z GFS ensembles seem to be all over the place, not much agreement with the operational as far as snowfall goes. To check it out go to this link, individual ensemble members snowfall are shown on the bottom. When you pull it up the operational will be in the upper left corner. To view each individual map, right click and choose view image.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/Members.html

here is a example.18zensp008snow114.gif

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18z GFS ensembles seem to be all over the place, not much agreement with the operational as far as snowfall goes. To check it out go to this link, individual ensemble members snowfall are shown on the bottom. When you pull it up the operational will be in the upper left corner. To view each individual map, right click and choose view image.

http://raleighwx.ame...ls/Members.html

here is a example.

Nice link!

00zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif

00zgfs850mbTSLPp06126.gif

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Nice link!

00zgfs850mbTSLPp06102.gif

00zgfs850mbTSLPp06126.gif

Thanks, I used that often with the last snowfall here in the Twin Cities metro, It appeared that the Euro and the Ukie were favoring 4-7" in the North metro, GFS and Nam operational were further north, yet about half of the ensembles agreed with the Euro and Ukie, so I went with it, and it verified, most of our local mets were calling for 2-3 where 4-7 fell. I found it to be a nice tool.

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April will be colder than March (56.6) at IND most likely. Current average temp is 54.6, through yesterday, and the rest of April looks to average below normal.

April being colder than March has only happened once in Indy's recorded history (beginning in 1871)...1907 with March having an average temp of 48.0 and April 43.3. At the time, that March was the warmest on record. April 1907 is still the coldest on record (by 2.3 over second place).

Of course the amazing warmth of March 2012 made it "easier" for this to happen. To put it into perspective, there have only been 16 Aprils for Indianapolis that were as warm or warmer than March 2012.

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What is sad is that April is still running above normal.

Yep.

Going by decade for April at Indianapolis, the 2000's had the warmest average temperature (54.5º versus the longterm average of 52.4º). If we do the last 10, 2002 to 2011, it is 55.1º. So one could say this April will end up right around average, or even below average, of the past 10-12. The April 1981-10 normal average temperature at IND is 53.2.

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What is sad is that April is still running above normal.

Thats a good thing. The weather has been beautiful and mostly warm/seasonable, its been a great April for outdoor activities. Not much rain and snow has also helped. Looks like we coast into May on the cool side (50s-low60s). Ill take it!

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Yesterday at this time it looked like there was at least a chance. Looking less likely at the moment.

Most of the ensembles still look interesting for some in the region. What the OP does is almost meaningless if the big picture is not viewed. That said, an inch or two is probably the best most can hope for.

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Most of the ensembles still look interesting for some in the region. What the OP does is almost meaningless if the big picture is not viewed. That said, an inch or two is probably the best most can hope for.

Dont necessarily disagree with you, my only point is that the most recent runs are not as promising as previous runs. Lots of dry air is going to be feeding into the northern precip it looks like.

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