andyhb Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 NAM has some pretty impressive severe parameters in southern WI, northern IL/IN Monday evening. Almost like a summertime ring of fire setup but without 6000 CAPE. And the unbreakable cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Is there any chance of it spilling into Tuesday? I'm flying in the morning out of MKE. Probably not beyond the wee hours of Tuesday as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 NWS calling for 90 in St Louis on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 April doesn't look to be nearly as cold as what earlier models had shown. Threats of frost/freeze look to be gone from the most recent model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 12z GFS came in with a even amount of seasonably normal and warm days. Looking like Spring is really setting up shop around the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The Euro has been trending cooler mid to late next week. Previous runs had several days of 60s following the early week torch. The 12z run has several days of 50s with a freeze possibility for many of us Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 ^^There seems to be a major lack of agreement between these models as of the last few days. I guess it's no surprise since its Spring and the models seem to hate transitory months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 brrr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The Euro has been trending cooler mid to late next week. Previous runs had several days of 60s following the early week torch. The 12z run has several days of 50s with a freeze possibility for many of us Friday morning. Looks like the MA/NE weenies get some SN too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Gonna be a big change tomorrow compared to today's relative coolness. Looks like 85 tomorrow, and maybe 88 Monday. 4km NAM shows 93 for STL Monday, with 90 up to Peoria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 brrr... I know right. Euro trolling real hard with more low/ mid 40 highs and stratus hell. Thankfully the trend has been for these bogus cold snaps too turn cool as they come within less than 100 hrs. If there's a model to hug today it's the Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The Euro has been trending cooler mid to late next week. Previous runs had several days of 60s following the early week torch. The 12z run has several days of 50s with a freeze possibility for many of us Friday morning. Boy the Pacific sure looks different than it has for the past... oh, 2 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Models trying to keep the real heat off to the west on Monday. What was looking like easy mid 80's might end up being cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Boy the Pacific sure looks different than it has for the past... oh, 2 years... I don't see this La Nina busting by mid summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The Euro is confused like all models are confused in 'boobs' patterns. Where the "right"(or is it left) boob forms won't be known for several more days. You know it's spring around the lakes when the omega blocks make or break ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I don't see this La Nina busting by mid summer. It is basically just about outta here already. The east PAC is already close to/or fully into Nino ( +0.5 or warmer ) and the warming has began again in the western regions ( 3.4 and 4 are already just out of Nina and thus now on the cool side neutral at around -0.4..Need -0.5 or colder for Nina ) and this should only pick up with the current MJO wave picking up steam again in Phase 7-8-1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 It is basically just about outta here already. The east PAC is already close to/or fully into Nino ( +0.5 or warmer ) and the warming has began again in the western regions ( 3.4 and 4 are already just out of Nina and thus now on the cool side neutral at around -0.4..Need -0.5 or colder for Nina ) and this should only pick up with the current MJO wave picking up steam again in Phase 7-8-1.. It will be interesting to see if the NAO continues to drop as well. Phase 1 in April is cool I believe in this region. So a MCS is supposed to develop tonight. Here is the 18z NAM's take on it. It will be moving into some cool air around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 It is basically just about outta here already. The east PAC is already close to/or fully into Nino ( +0.5 or warmer ) and the warming has began again in the western regions ( 3.4 and 4 are already just out of Nina and thus now on the cool side neutral at around -0.4..Need -0.5 or colder for Nina ) and this should only pick up with the current MJO wave picking up steam again in Phase 7-8-1.. How long will it roll into neutral? Long duration or jumping back into Nina or right into a weak niño ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I don't see this La Nina busting by mid summer. First, Harry beat me to it, it's already busted. Both CFS1 and 2 say warm neutral or even weak nino by mid summer and they have been inching up the last few weeks. Second, I was not referring to ssts, but to the long range pattern out there showing up on the Euro. The semi-permanent goa monster 960mb low is gone and replaced with some ridging at least, and every model wants to bring in some sort of troughing in the east. I don't pretend to be very knowledgeable and certainly don't want to get into any long range stuff because I would get my a-- kicked, but you gotta at least look at the signs. I know a warmth lover like you might not want to look, and the easy call is more torch, but you have to at least look at what keeps showing up. Green Bay put out a really nice disco a couple days ago on this and why it seems the models are having fits. If I find it I'll link it. Then again by tomorrow everything will look different so, carry on. http://forecast.weat...n=30&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 First, Harry beat me to it, it's already busted. Both CFS1 and 2 say warm neutral or even weak nino by late summer and they have been inching up the last few weeks. Second, I was not referring to ssts, but to the long range pattern out there showing up on the Euro. The semi-permanent goa monster 960mb low is gone and replaced with some ridging at least, and every model wants to bring in some sort of troughing in the east. I don't pretend to be very knowledgeable and certainly don't want to get into any long range stuff because I would get my a-- kicked, but you gotta at least look at the signs. I know a warmth lover like you might not want to look, and the easy call is more torch, but you have to at least look at what keeps showing up. Green Bay put out a really nice disco a couple days ago on this and why it seems the models are having fits. If I find it I'll link it. Then again by tomorrow everything will look different so, carry on. http://forecast.weat...n=30&glossary=1 From the Green Bay Disco THE MODELS HAVE BIG DIFFERENCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ANDARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH EACH OTHER MUCH OF THE TIME. BELIEVE THIS IS DUE TO A POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE TO RIDGING OVER ALASKA AND THE POSSIBLE ESTABLISHMENT OF A POLAR VORTEX OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL. :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 From the Green Bay Disco :wub: LOL somehow I knew you would be all over this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 polar vortex? That is what the GFS was showing a few days back... 18z GFS doesn't show anything like that, but you can never be sure until we are late into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 polar vortex? That is what the GFS was showing a few days back... 18z GFS doesn't show anything like that, but you can never be sure until we are late into April. Probably not. 12z Euro had the ridge in the rockies/northwest flow over the lakes look though at day 10. Day 10 this time of year is silly, fun to speculate though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 yeah..lately it seems that the coldest air has been pouring into Michigan and points east...especially NY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 really don't care what the pattern is until mid May when I'm out in the plains chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Don't really care what the pattern is, period. And I'm not here trying to beg for cold. At this point it would suck and hurt a lot of people. There's no sign to me of colder than normal anywhere, but the March torch while being fun for all of us (most of us) was really a little unsettling. Everything has to end sooner or later. A little more climo wouldn't be all that bad. I sweat enough in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 lol, NAM now keeps temps in the 60's here on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 Dirty NAM... Funny...GFS only shows 67F now...should be interesting.... Its been dropping the temp every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 1, 2012 Share Posted April 1, 2012 I can see the moons and stars, so the skies must have cleared.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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