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April 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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We've been kinda dry in this region so far. My soil conditions are pretty good after that 2" of rain this weekend. Preparing for another 1.5" or better the next 2 days.

Calm before the storm so to speak right now here. Still mild in the upper 50s, little wind.

A lot more optimistic than me

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If the 0z runs are right then I won't see that, maybe you will though!

I can't believe it... still 60° outside! Just had a brief shower about 20 minutes ago.

Yeah its gorgeous out..

little disheartening to see the better qpf continually nudging north the past few days. Problem is i ride qpf on the models harder than tropical beats his weenie to brett anderson. Maybe aleks se trend will kick in and we get a better 1-2 punch.

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I would say the plume of moisture looks a bit south of what has been modeled recently. Those same models dryslot us for much of this evening before it pivots more SE.

I would say so. The 12z NAM is missing that intense rain in eastern IA and the rain is actually extended further south then that run. It's completely missing the rain E & N of St. Joseph, MO. too.

The NAM is also overdoing temperatures by 4-6° around here.

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This is shocking...it gets at how mild this fall and spring have been in Chicago. Obviously winter was incredibly mild too...but this statistic doesn't really reflect that (as most winter days have a low temp < 32F, even in mild winters).

ORD: Number of days with low temp < 32F, by season (1959-present)

Most

1. 142 (1964-65)

2. 139 (2000-01)

3. 137 (1996-97)

4. 136 (1981-82)

5. 135 (1978-79)

Fewest

1. 84 (2011-12)

2. 96 (1997-98)

3. 96 (1975-76)

4. 98 (1998-99)

5. 99 (1973-74)

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picked up .44 in that hr or so. I was figuring about .50 give or take for the event so I'm pretty happy where we sit ATM. Models were right inching the stuff north back to the west and hit pretty well out towards la crosse. some more heavies to move through there and to the north.

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