donsutherland1 Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 In the medium range spring discussion on the main forum, Don S (who has some pretty good credibility I think) just posted some pretty intriguing stuff... he's on the nino train it would seem. Top 2 summer analogs, 2002 and 2009... break out the popcorn... Right now, 2002 and 2009 are among the emeging raw analogs that appear to have promise from an ENSO standpoint. There are some uglier ones, too, but today I cited two of the more attractive ones. I have not yet refined all the data. 2009 is a leading analog for the current month, so it's currently ahead of 2002. Overall, the continuing evolution of ENSO, among other factors, will be critical in seeing where things go. FWIW, Winter 2009-2010 was the coldest winter in the contiguous 48 states since the epic 1978-79 winter (coldest on record) and the 15th coldest since 1895-96. 2009-10 had a temperature anomaly that was -0.993 standard deviations below the historic mean. Nationwide, 2002-03 actually was 0.591 standard deviations above the historic mean, but the cold was focused on the eastern half of the U.S. and snowfall was abundant there. The western half was much warmer than normal due, in part, to a very strong PDO+. That PDO+ is a red flag of sorts at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 We're seeing snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 In the medium range spring discussion on the main forum, Don S (who has some pretty good credibility I think) just posted some pretty intriguing stuff... he's on the nino train it would seem. Top 2 summer analogs, 2002 and 2009... break out the popcorn... http://www.americanw...12/page__st__70 As far as the MJO going into the COD, Lacrosse has thoughts on the matter: MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DEAL WITH HOW THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING A MODERATE TO STRONG MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ATLANTIC/. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JAPANESE METEOROLOGY AGENCY ENSEMBLE SYSTEM /JMAN/...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WIPE OUT THIS MJO RAPIDLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CONSIDERING ITS STRENGTH...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A BRIEF WARM UP AS WE ENTER PHASE 1 /OVER AFRICA/ BY THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COOL DOWN AS THE MJO STARTS INTO THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN /PHASE 2/ BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 Phase 2 fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 ??? 2002 was a warm summer. Who says I don't like warm wx ya troll? I'd take a warm summer like 02 or a nice cool one like 09. No difference to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 -SN here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Phase 2 fail. Recall when the models had this going into phase 7 and looping back to 6 and then into 7 again and never seeing 8? Thus don't get too worked up about the model output. BTW the weeklies have flipped back to a much warmer look. Point is i would not get too worked up with modeling no matter what it is. It is all likely to change again and again etc etc etc. Usually how that works when we are in transition with enso etc. Who says I don't like warm wx ya troll? I'd take a warm summer like 02 or a nice cool one like 09. No difference to me.. I don't care if it is warm or cool just give me some action ( not a tornado imby though ) is all i ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Again 2009 wasn't so bad it's the ****ing rain every weekend that screwed that summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 I don't care if it is warm or cool just give me some action ( not a tornado imby though ) is all i ask for. Anything but a stinking hot humid airmass stuck in place for 3 months, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Again 2009 wasn't so bad it's the ****ing rain every weekend that screwed that summer. Personally THIS weather we have right now does nothing for me. I want some action. Does not matter if it is a snowstorm, heavy duty rains, or severe storms just give me something. Too f-ing dry for my liking either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Anything but a stinking hot humid airmass stuck in place for 3 months, please. IF ( note i say IF ) it comes with alot of action IMBY i'll be ok with it. I just don't care for endless boring sunny every day/drought crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Flakes flying here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Give me any summer as long as its not like last summer... Tropical can have that heat/humid dome over his house... Temps have a rough time going anywhere today...have more sun now...still lots of clouds in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Long range GFS is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Long range GFS is a disaster. N WI gets a plastering of snow :lol: Pretty much all of WI gets some flakes Haha what am i doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Anything but a stinking hot humid airmass stuck in place for 3 months, please. My least favorite kind of weather. I do prefer a wet pattern over a dry one. High dewpoints with no rain is just pointless it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Personally THIS weather we have right now does nothing for me. I want some action. Does not matter if it is a snowstorm, heavy duty rains, or severe storms just give me something. Too f-ing dry for my liking either way. This. Atleast I had a decent snow/sleet shower today but I'm getting pretty bored too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 LOL. As if 180 hours isn't enough. Just stop all models at 180. Then I wouldn't be tempted to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 LOL. As if 180 hours isn't enough. Just stop all models at 180. Then I wouldn't be tempted to look. We have all seen crazy funny 300hr GFS fails/fantasys. Lol seen the GFS drop heights like that in mid July and raise summer like heights in winter. Its absolute garbage past D5-6. The ENS are easier to look at IMO. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Yeah but what makes me nervous is the last several runs have had some version of this... I certainly wouldn't be betting on a torch April up here... until it flips tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 38 out.. had a hard time being that cold all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 euro says chilly and mood flakes too. maybe we can warm up late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Wonder if DTW will log a T of snow. Now I was in Taylor in the afternoon and it was sleeting and dropping ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 euro says chilly and mood flakes too. maybe we can warm up late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Hope Sparty didn't pack his beanies away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 euro says chilly and mood flakes too. maybe we can warm up late month. :wub: Hope Sparty didn't pack his beanies away :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Saw some flakes floating in the air at the Tigers-Rays game. Pretty cool. A nice brisk even 50º here at 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Hope Sparty didn't pack his beanies away Trolling my FB page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 After being around +16 for the first few days of April, we have dropped to +8.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 After being around +16 for the first few days of April, we have dropped to +8.2 Today will (should) be LAF's "biggest" negative departure day since February 25th (-7). Average temp for today is 50º (50º/33º so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted April 10, 2012 Share Posted April 10, 2012 Twin Cities afternoon thoughts. I'd change the "chuckle" to "facepalm". IN FACT...TODAY/S MODEL INDUCED CHUCKLE CAME FROM THE GFS...WHICH PUT OUT OVER 4 INCHES OF SNOW AT EAU FOR TUESDAY! IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH 11.00 MODELS...WILL PROBABLY START SEEING THINGS GETTING COOLER AND WETTER MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THIS BECOMES A TREND WITH THE MODELS OR IS JUST A ONE HIT WONDER. FOR BEYOND...STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR US TO DEAL WITH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF APRIL AS THE GFS/ECMWF BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH A COOL NW FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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