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April 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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Lows the next 2 nights looking colder. A pair of 29°'s forecast. Tuesday night, Wednesday night would be radiational freezes. Down to 45° now.

Upper 30s already around the Dells. Probably be one of the colder spots in S WI.

Edit: Temp dropping a bit quicker. Down to 41°. Upper 30s showing up about 20 miles NW of here already.

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Was gonna play golf today but much too windy. Beautiful day though, but gosh I need some severe weather. Been a boring few months as far as storms go

I played in the morning and easily shot the worst round of the year. Not that I expected anything good... but it was brutal. It was a nice temperature, just way too windy to do anything fun. Not looking forward to running this afternoon.

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In the medium range spring discussion on the main forum, Don S (who has some pretty good credibility I think) just posted some pretty intriguing stuff... he's on the nino train it would seem. Top 2 summer analogs, 2002 and 2009... break out the popcorn...

:popcorn:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/33427-medium-range-discussion-spring-2012/page__st__70

As far as the MJO going into the COD, Lacrosse has thoughts on the matter:

MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DEAL

WITH HOW THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING A MODERATE TO STRONG MADDEN

JULIAN OSCILLATION /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND

ATLANTIC/. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JAPANESE METEOROLOGY AGENCY

ENSEMBLE SYSTEM /JMAN/...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WIPE OUT THIS

MJO RAPIDLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CONSIDERING ITS

STRENGTH...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A

BRIEF WARM UP AS WE ENTER PHASE 1 /OVER AFRICA/ BY THIS

WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COOL DOWN AS THE MJO STARTS INTO

THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN /PHASE 2/ BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ARX&issuedby=ARX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

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In the medium range spring discussion on the main forum, Don S (who has some pretty good credibility I think) just posted some pretty intriguing stuff... he's on the nino train it would seem. Top 2 summer analogs, 2002 and 2009... break out the popcorn...

:popcorn:

http://www.americanw...12/page__st__70

As far as the MJO going into the COD, Lacrosse has thoughts on the matter:

MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DEAL

WITH HOW THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING A MODERATE TO STRONG MADDEN

JULIAN OSCILLATION /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND

ATLANTIC/. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JAPANESE METEOROLOGY AGENCY

ENSEMBLE SYSTEM /JMAN/...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WIPE OUT THIS

MJO RAPIDLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CONSIDERING ITS

STRENGTH...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A

BRIEF WARM UP AS WE ENTER PHASE 1 /OVER AFRICA/ BY THIS

WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COOL DOWN AS THE MJO STARTS INTO

THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN /PHASE 2/ BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1

:wub:

Those analogs would hands down make up for this crap winter for me.. :thumbsup:

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If you are an ice pussie u dont want a summer 2002. it was warm. Basically don said don't write off any solution for the summer.

Yep, 02 was a complete torch. Wasn't beating the drum for either. I just like to talk about this stuff. Weather is fun but boring death ridges in summer are not...

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In the medium range spring discussion on the main forum, Don S (who has some pretty good credibility I think) just posted some pretty intriguing stuff... he's on the nino train it would seem. Top 2 summer analogs, 2002 and 2009... break out the popcorn...

:popcorn:

http://www.americanw...12/page__st__70

As far as the MJO going into the COD, Lacrosse has thoughts on the matter:

MUCH OF THIS HAS TO DEAL

WITH HOW THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING A MODERATE TO STRONG MADDEN

JULIAN OSCILLATION /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND

ATLANTIC/. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE JAPANESE METEOROLOGY AGENCY

ENSEMBLE SYSTEM /JMAN/...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WIPE OUT THIS

MJO RAPIDLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER CONSIDERING ITS

STRENGTH...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A

BRIEF WARM UP AS WE ENTER PHASE 1 /OVER AFRICA/ BY THIS

WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER COOL DOWN AS THE MJO STARTS INTO

THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN /PHASE 2/ BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1

I'll comment on Dons post later but for now i'll say there is a few differences ( now vs 2002 ) starting with the QBO and then Nina to Nino THIS go around vs Neutral to Nino in 2002. As for 2009 it would be a better match for now anyways. Lets first see how the Nino develops.

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