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April 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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IN THE EXTENDED...SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS

EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY

THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE

PROJECTED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION

DURING THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH AN OVERALL ELEVATED WARM

AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR...AND

GENERAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO ARRIVE

FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. THE WHOLE LONG WAVE TROUGH ON

THE WEST DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHIFT EAST ENOUGH TO BRING A WELL-

ORGANIZED SURFACE SYSTEM OUR WAY UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ITS

POSSIBLE THAT SLOWS MORE. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

AT THIS TIME...HAVE THUNDER CHANCES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH

SUNDAY...AND INEVITABLY THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN THERE WHICH ARE

BETTER DEFINED AS THIS WEEK PROGRESSES.

LOT thoughts on severe for the upcoming weekend

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Good shot at not making it out of the 40's on Tuesday.  If that happens it would be the first time since March 9.

I'll downgrade from good to some.  Cold temps with 850 mb temps around -5C but models have steep lapse rates to 800 mb...if we mix that high then it may be tough to hold temps back from 50.

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Plenty of instability (1000-2000 J/kg) heading north on Saturday along with a 40-50 kt LLJ, near the SLP/triple point. Surface flow loks a bit veered, but there is still decent directional turning with height with the LLJ out of the SW and H5 flow almost due west or WSW.

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We could use some rain and a all night soaker would be good. When was the last great Midwest Great lakes drought?

That's a good question! Nothing recent in memory comes up. Maybe in the early 2000s? Usually a drought around here only lasts a month to maybe two months.

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We could use some rain and a all night soaker would be good. When was the last great Midwest Great lakes drought?

That's a good question! Nothing recent in memory comes up. Maybe in the early 2000s? Usually a drought around here only lasts a month to maybe two months.

2007 & 2005.

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Looks like the Boob pattern ends by the end of the week, Sorta getting dry around here.

Thank god.

We may even return back to an above-average temperature pattern after mid-month, especially if the MJO heads back into the COD like some forecasts suggests.

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You have to love spring weather in the Midwest, where snow and 80 degree weather is mentioned in the same long term disco...

THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. LOW CHC 20 POPS COVER THIS THREAT WELL...WITH

SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN IF SHOWERS DO MATERIALIZE GIVEN GFS/NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AND PROGGED 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES...

TRENDING MUCH WARMER NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS UP TO 80F NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIXES.

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Seems to be clearing out and cooling off quicker than forecast tonight. Already down to 45°.

Looks like the 0z NAM pushes the sub 30° temperatures a little further into the Chicago metro for Tuesday AM.

temp35.gif

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