Guru Of Reason Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 Guess what everybody? Looks like more of the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted March 28, 2012 Author Share Posted March 28, 2012 90 degrees forecasted for April Fools Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Looks like the first week this far north will be volatile with the temperatures and weather! Everything from severe weather to snow! Makes April interesting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Looks like the first week this far north will be volatile with the temperatures and weather! Everything from severe weather to snow! Makes April interesting though. Yes, March and April are usually both interesting since they are usually transition periods between winter and the heat, humidity and severe of late spring/early summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Sunspot AR 1429 has been spewing out many more massive CMEs on the backside of the viewable sun. This particular sunspot is what hurled a peice of the hot sun @ earth in mid March. This feature is expected to rotate back into earths view sometime next week. This is a current view of the massive CME from aproaching 1429. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 00z gfs is completely different with respect to the system early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 00z gfs is completely different with respect to the system early next week. It keeps the Northern and Southern Streams unphased but if you look at jet structure there is no reason for the Southern piece to even remotely be as strong as it is represented in the model. I think this might be a garbage run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 It does some really strange things after the UL jet streak digs on the West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 It keeps the Northern and Southern Streams unphased but if you look at jet structure there is no reason for the Southern piece to even remotely be as strong as it is represented in the model. I think this might be a garbage run. I hope so. It looked a little strange to me too but I'm just an amateur. I hope it is just a garbage run, 18z gfs was a bit of a tease for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I hope so. It looked a little strange to me too but I'm just an amateur. I hope it is just a garbage run, 18z gfs was a bit of a tease for severe weather. Well what it is trying to do is hook in with a very very weak upper trough across TX/AR region once it crosses the mountains. A strong system like that would push that weak upper trough right along or cause it to flatten out and weaken due to an much stronger system ejecting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 It keeps the Northern and Southern Streams unphased but if you look at jet structure there is no reason for the Southern piece to even remotely be as strong as it is represented in the model. I think this might be a garbage run. If it were to cut/close off as the model shows it doing at 500mb then yeah it is very possible for it to be that strong. Truthfully it is not all that strong though ( only gets down to 996mb ) it just has a decent amount of moisture which seems reasonable considering the GOM etc influence with that track. meh.. It will probably change alot more between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 If it were to cut/close off as the model shows it doing at 500mb then yeah it is very possible for it to be that strong. Truthfully it is not all that strong though ( only gets down to 996mb ) it just has a decent amount of moisture which seems reasonable considering the GOM etc influence with that track. meh.. It will probably change alot more between now and then. The track getting there with the splitting of the energy is the part I don't agree with. What happens from there could be right per what it shows but I don't think it plays out in that fashion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 I think I'll await the Euro since this run of the GFS really didn't do a whole lot to narrow down the possible location that this system may be affecting the greatest (at least compared to previous runs of the model). Actually even with this peculiar verbatim, I still see a potentially substantial severe threat on Monday/Tuesday in the South (Arklatex/Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf States). 00z GGEM uses this system as a sacrificial lamb before an even bigger one later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 The track getting there with the splitting of the energy is the part I don't agree with. What happens from there could be right per what it shows but I don't think it plays out in that fashion euro does not look so hot around these parts. Frontal passage between midnight and 7am and not the strongest of storms either. We do however make a run to the upper 70s on Monday though before the front arrives late Monday night/early Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Euro basically says "not much" for anyone, in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Interesting for all the models to jump off this system all at once, the nice thing however it really backs off the cold later on. Even the GFS which was really cold was tempered down some. Not to sure what to make of the models right now though, pretty wild to see such a radical shift all at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 The problem is, with the strength of the upper/mid level jet that digs in the west and the relatively deamplified pattern out ahead of it, I kind of have a hard time believing that it would shear out so much like the Euro suggests. Also, the 00z run at 72 hrs is virtually identical to the 12z run at 84 hrs, so how they end up getting such different solutions by Day 4 and 5 is kind of interesting. Same thing with the 00z/12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 March will go out like a lamb around here. Prediction for Sunday in Northern IN is the upper 70's. I predict 81 for FWA. With the looks of last night's models, April may begin with more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Not so fast: DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0404 AM CDT THU MAR 29 2012 VALID 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 5 /MON 4-2/ WITH RESPECT TO HANDLING OF THE EJECTING WRN SYSTEM...BUT DEVIATIONS FROM DAY 6 /TUE 4-3/ ONWARD -- AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES AREAS NEAR AND E OF THE APPALACHIANS -- RESULT IN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATTER 2/3 OF THE PERIOD. WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST DAY 4 /SUN 4-1/...PRIMARILY NEAR A WARM FRONT INVOF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING STILL IN PLACE WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM STILL OVER THE ROCKIES SUGGESTS THAT ANY THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO EXIST DAY 5...AS THE UPPER TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY...AND REACHES A POSITION FROM ROUGHLY THE UPPER MS VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS MO AND INTO E TX. WHILE SOME THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST AS FAR N AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...GREATEST POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY FROM THE OZARKS SWD/SEWD TO THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. HERE...STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE INSTABILITY SUGGEST FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION LIKELY AND ASSOCIATED THREATS FOR WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES. THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD WITH TIME...POSSIBLY REACHING THE TN VALLEY AND AL DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DAY 6...AND WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED TO/OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY 6 PERIOD...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AGAIN HOWEVER...WITH MINOR DEVIATIONS IN MODEL SOLUTION EXPANDING DAY 6...WILL NOT AREALLY HIGHLIGHT ANY THREAT AREAS WHICH MAY BE EVENTUALLY ADDED NEAR/E OF THE APPALACHIANS. WITH LARGE-SCALE/PERSISTENT RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A LULL IN CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE COUNTRY APPEARS LIKELY -- AND THUS PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS APPEAR CONFINED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 03/29/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Now Texas torches. Those are way way way above normal for them. 90 in Minnesota? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The 12z NAM roasts us on Monday with 850 mb temps around 19C, although mixing levels don't reach that level. A good early guess might be mid 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 NAM has a pocket of 90 around Quincy on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Oh goodie. Another cutoff low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 This ridge is a giant pain in the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 This ridge is a giant pain in the backside. Welcome to the past 4+ months... Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Interesting for all the models to jump off this system all at once, the nice thing however it really backs off the cold later on. Even the GFS which was really cold was tempered down some. Not to sure what to make of the models right now though, pretty wild to see such a radical shift all at once. The gfs has pretty much had the same 300+ hour cool down advertised since November. It's just mind boggling how persistent this ridge has been since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I wonder if this -AO and lower NAO will finally break the ridge pattern down this month. Another cut-off low next week! More cool days of easterly flow I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The torch cometh back. Hello, old friend! NAEFS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I wonder if this -AO and lower NAO will finally break the ridge pattern down this month. Another cut-off low next week! More cool days of easterly flow I guess. Dude, look at my post. You can't wish away persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 The gfs has pretty much had the same 300+ hour cool down advertised since November. It's just mind boggling how persistent this ridge has been since then. Think the models are bad now? Just wait until they start really fumbling with that fantasy cutoff. This pattern is iron clad bro. I'm just getting more geeked about seeing how much sun spot 1429 has grown or shrunk. We should see it next week. Let's see if it hurls another hot chunk of sun at us. Spring northern lights FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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